更多的政府借債能夠有助於美國經濟嗎？

在另一個讓人對美國經濟失望的第一個季度後，許多經濟政策專家再次詢問：“是否有什麼能夠加速美國經濟持續性軟恢復。

這個讨論的一個層面是美國政府是否應該採取更多措施激發需求，即使這意味著承擔更多的債務。鑒於美國政府已經承擔了相當大的債務，我懷疑更多的債務是否會對國家和經濟有利。

這里有四個我懷疑大規模債務政府支撐計劃的原因。

1.缺少會奏效的有利證據

從歷史上看，政府借貸和GDP沒有關聯性。換句話說，債務支撐的政府消費沒有快速增長。在我看來，那些支援政府借貸的人應該描繪一條政府借貸和經濟增長的清晰路徑。

2.人口老齡化已經使政府財政吃緊

人口老齡化將在幾個方面使美國經濟吃緊。勞動力增長放緩將會使美國更難恢復其歷史經濟增長速度。另外，人口老齡化將給政府福利計劃越來越大的壓力，這個計劃是在為了壽命較短和退休設計的。

3美國政府已經承擔了過多的債務

由於經濟增長放緩，美國的總債務大約在GDP的百分之百左右。這個總債務還不包括國家養老和醫療計劃相關的無資金債務。

4.美國通常有過多債務

美國去槓桿化的故事並不完全準確。美國家庭的資產負債表比危機前充實了許多，金融部門也用了更少的槓桿。這也就是說，整體非金融債務從危機前的32萬億美元增加到現在的超過41萬億美元。即使為了經濟增長調整之後，你也只能說美國的債務已經穩定。非金融債務占GDP的235%。盡管從2009年的最高值240%有所下降，但是從歷史角度來看這些債務還是讓人不安的。60年的平均值只有160%，甚至早在10年前，非金融債務還只占GDP的200%。

上面的建議並不表明沒有明確目標的政府支出的機會。以基础設施支出為例，可以說明提高美國生產力和長期增長。但是關註於中公私合作解決該國的基础設施老化不應該等同於另一個大規模刺激計劃。

我的觀點是，美國經濟正在處於复蘇和复蘇之中，在第二季度或者至少在下半年增長將會加速。也就是說，我同意那些經濟复蘇也不可能把我們帶會年增長3.5%到4%的光輝歲月。大量積累的債務不可能改變這一狀況，而且可能使事情變得更糟。

Would More Government Debt Help The U.S. Economy?

Following another disappointing first quarter for the U.S. economy, many economic policy experts are once again asking: “What, if anything, can be done to accelerate the United States’ persistently soft recovery?”
One dimension of this debate is whether the U.S. government should be doing more to stir up demand, even if this means taking on more debt. Given the United States’ already sizeable existing obligations, I’m skeptical that another debt binge is in the interest of the country or the economy. Here are four reasons for my skepticism of massive, debt-fueled government stimulus.

1. There’s a lack of clear evidence it will work

Historically, there has been no correlation between government borrowing and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In other words, debt-fueled government spending hasn’t been associated with faster growth. To my mind, the onus is on those arguing for more debt to draw a clear path between further borrowing and economic growth.

2. An aging population is already challenging government finances

An older population will challenge the U.S. economy in a number of ways. Slower work force growth will make it harder for the United States to achieve its historical growth rate. In addition, an older population will put increasing pressure on government entitlement programs, which were designed at a time of shorter lifespans and retirements.

3. There is already too much U.S. government debt

Gross U.S. federal debt is at around 100% of GDP, a level historically associated with slower growth. And this gross debt doesn’t include unfunded liabilities related to the country’s pension and medical programs.
4. America has too much debt in general

Tales of the United States “deleveraging” aren’t completely accurate. U.S. household balance sheets certainly are in much better shape than they were pre-crisis, and the financial sector is less levered. That said, overall non-financial debt in the United States has increased from $32 trillion on the eve of the financial crisis to more than $41 trillion today. Even after adjusting for the growth in the economy, the best you can say is that U.S. debt has stabilized. The ratio of non-financial debt-to-GDP is nearly 235%. While this is down a bit from the 2009 peak of 240%, debt is still disturbingly high from a historical perspective. The 60-year average is just 160% and even as recently as 10 years ago, non-financial debt was only 200% of GDP.

None of the above suggests that there isn’t an opportunity for well-targeted government spending. Infrastructure spending, for instance, could help improve U.S. productivity and long-term growth. But focused public-private partnerships to address the country’s aging infrastructure shouldn’t be synonymous with another massive stimulus program.

My view is that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a recovery, and growth should re-accelerate in the second quarter, or at least in the second half. That said, I would agree with those who argue that the recovery isn’t likely to take us back to the glory days of 3.5% to 4% annual growth. A massive build-up in debt is unlikely to change this, and it would probably make things worse.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供:

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