英國溫和的大選結果以及歐洲小規模危機的終結

出乎所有人的預料，英國保守黨當選並將成立多數派政府。這與金融市場過山車似的一週相吻合：上半週由於歐央行超寬鬆的貨幣政策面臨解體的危機，資產價格大幅上漲；而下半週則以 “金發姑娘”美國的就業報告說明穩定了大衆的神經而結束。市場越來越悲觀的氣氛肯定不是來源於美聯儲主席耶倫對股票和債券市場過高估值的暗示，因為市場似乎已經在週五下午遺忘了該暗示。

由一個多數派政府而不是由多個混亂的、分裂的少數黨聯合執政，對於英國來說顯然是一個好訊息。這個較好的結果很快就通過英國較高的資產價格以及英鎊的反彈體現出來。然而，我們相信困難才剛剛開始。保守黨需要處理諸如蘇格蘭以及與歐洲關係等問題。然而，需要記住的重要一點是，除了政治問題，英國還面臨著巨大的雙赤字問題。經常帳戶以及財政赤字大約占GDP總和的10%；這是一個會讓人們將英國與危機聯繫起來的水平，同時與世界其他國家一樣，英國的經濟增長也需要刺激政策。對於任何一個經濟體或者金融市場來說，處理這類赤字都沒有簡單的途徑，而且需要付出痛苦的代價。我們會在後續報告詳細說明。

大選發生在歐洲資產令人不安局面之後。市場環境持續，投資者相信全能的央行有能力管理市場和經濟。盡管近年來經濟增長及其緩慢，但是考慮到央行的寬鬆貨幣政策，市場估值也已經達到歷史的極值，投資者更加依賴央行的支援。投資者的自滿已經達到令人難以置信的程度，他們認為只要有央行的支援就不會有任何可怕的事情發生，所以他們不關心基本面分析、盲目地交易。簡單地說，在失效之前會持續有效，當上漲節奏跟四月中旬一樣停止，大部分投資都沒有機會撤資，因為在沒有流動性的時候，價格會像瀑佈似的飛速下跌。這些情況下，虧損會快速累積，他們幾個月以來的盈利會在幾日內虧空。歐洲本週似乎發生過這種情況。

不可能明確知道較小的危機會在何時發生以及原因是什麼，事實上，緊隨這些小危機之後的是快速地向上回調還是轉變為真正的熊市都是未知數。我們能斷定的是，它們是泡沫市場不可避免的結果，它會發生在央行撤出對市場支援的時候（瑞士央行在一月份取消對匯率干預，導致外匯市場中很多交易者大幅虧損），或者是市場參與者開始相信央行失去控制力的時候（回想一下1992年的英格蘭銀行）。

讓我們以下圖德國十年期國債為例子。在價格高峰，10年期國債的年收益是0.05%，這種趨勢可以推測出10到期之後的累計收益僅為0.5%。當然，多頭認為由於歐央行的寬鬆貨幣政策，收益率可能會低至-0.2%。因此，他們會選擇在未來價格較高的時候賣給某人（假定是歐央行）。同時，任何一個頭腦清醒的人都會說，年收益為0.05%的10年期債券具有存在泡沫的可能性。幾乎不可避免的是，如果歐元價格從最高處下跌5.76%，你的4個月收益會在13天內化為烏有。對於那些持有意大利或者西班牙國債的人來說，由於年收益高於1%，債券期貨價格會分別下降7.4% 和 7.1%。

債券的負收益率被很多人描述為瘋狂的，投資者需要尋找別處來分配自己的資產。在國債收益率為零或者負數的情況下，許多人倡導買入股票，股票的收益率大於3%很常見，並且可以得到長期的資本收益。然而，下圖中顯示，在債券價格下跌的同時，德國的股價也相應下跌近10%。近期的小幅崩盤，歐洲投資者已經沒有地方躲藏了。 

似乎美聯儲正在密切關註歐洲事件。盡管歐央行的負利率以及QE政策，但美聯儲仍然很明顯地是在關心2008以後寬鬆的貨幣政策會帶來什麼意想不到的後果。在我們看來，美聯儲也確實應該關心，因為由於金融泡沫的破裂所產生的經濟危機會帶來各種衰退。事實上，美聯儲已經在15年內促成第三次經濟泡沫的生成，而泡沫的破裂對經濟的影響是巨大的。

我們可以從三天內有五位美聯儲官員就此進行讨論的事實看出美聯儲對金融穩定性的關心。誠然，美聯儲經常會讨論金融的穩定性，但是從近期新聞頭條可以看出，他們現在比以往任何時候都擔心巨大泡沫的產生：
美聯儲Kocher Lakota：警惕金融不穩定的風險（註意，Kocher Lakota是美聯儲最溫和的理事）
GEORGE：貨幣政策很明顯地存在冒險行為
Lockhart ：不要“過度擔心”股票的估值（提示：很明顯，他已經有點擔心）
Evans：不要懷疑：股票市場處於高價位
Yellen ：股票市場的估值非常高。

去年年底結束QE政策，美聯儲一直在陳述一切都在他們的掌控之中。他們說經濟發展良好。他們打算提高利率，但是疲軟的經濟數據讓這件事變得複雜，同時，他們也希望在不產生任何恐慌的前提下降低金融市場的過高估值。目前為止，投資者信任美聯儲的叙述。他們在歐洲市場也這麼做，歐洲市場已經開始小幅的危機，如果某一個小危機演化成大的恐慌，會發生什麼？。

或許看待這些小危機的方式就像住在東京或者加利佛尼亞時刻受到地震威脅一樣，只有當太陽出來天空變藍，你的擔心才會減少。然而，地震會導致暫時的恐慌，即使後來顯示它只的震級很小。生活很快地恢復正常，但是內心深處，我們都知道“最大的那個”會如期而至。我們同樣也知道“最大的那個”具有毀滅性的破壞力，當局將完全無法阻止它的到來或者保護人們的財產。較好的生活（就像投資牛市一樣）意味著投資者時刻準備著面對小的地震，雖然當局開始警告他們可能出現的糟糕結果，但是投資者仍然麻木地認為他們會在危機更為明顯的時候及時撤出。

週五美國利好的就業數據讓投資者認為他們在一個陽光明媚、萬里無雲的早晨醒來。歐洲資產的小危機就像一個破壞力有限的小地震。監管當局一再警告，但他們仍想回歸到“正常”生活。。

總的來說，英國大選的溫和結果預示著歐洲似乎躲過了一場小危機。當局正在努力說服我們他們已經掌控了一切，這進一步鼓勵了投機行為，推動了價格進一步上升。然而，我們將上週的結果視作對投資者的一個警告。當局薄弱的操控手段隨時都有可能失效，或者他們會改變政策並有可能帶來更大的恐慌。股票市場熊市何時到來是無法確定的，但我們相信繼續留在大部分股票以及債券市場的風險性在逐漸增加。不幸的是，可以帶來良好收益的安全資產很少，這也就是投資者繼續投資風險資產的原因。那些避免投資具有明顯泡沫資產的投資者的信譽是經受住嚴峻考驗的，就像1999年、2007年或者1929年的情況一樣。耐心會得到某種形式的回報。而當小危機逐漸擴大化，那些持有大量現金的投資者會非常欣慰的。
Stewart Richardson
首席投資官

Benign UK Election Result and the End of a Mini-Meltdown in Europe
May 14, 2015
Against all expectations, the UK elected a majority government returning the Conservatives to power. This coincided with financial markets ending a rollercoaster week on a positive note after a “goldilocks” US employment report helped steady nerves. During the first half of the week, it had appeared that the significant rise in asset prices fuelled by the ultra-easy monetary policies from the European Central Bank was at risk of unravelling. The increasingly bearish atmosphere was certainly not helped by mid-week comments from Fed Chair Yellen implying valuations in both equity and bond markets were very high; comments that seem to have been forgotten by Friday afternoon.
It is clearly good news that we in the UK woke up to a single party majority government rather than a messy and divisive minority or coalition. This better outcome was quickly reflected in higher UK asset prices and a rally in Sterling. However, we believe that the hard work begins here. There will be issues for the Conservatives to tackle, such as how to deal with Scotland and of course the relationship with Europe. However, it is important to remember that, politics aside, the UK has a massive twin deficit problem. The current account and fiscal deficits are approximately 10% of GDP combined; a level that would be associated more often with a country facing a crisis and, as with the rest of the world, growth has been anaemic considering the stimulus provided. We do not see any easy solution to tackling these deficits without pain for either the economy or the financial markets. We will no doubt discuss this in more detail in a subsequent note.
The election came at the end of a disturbing few days for European assets. The environment remains that investors believe in the omnipotence of central bankers and their ability to manage markets and the economy. Although economic growth has been incredibly poor in recent years considering the ultra-easy monetary policies pursued by central banks, investors have become increasingly reliant on the support of central banks as market valuations stretch to historical extremes. Investors have become incredibly complacent that nothing horrible can happen as long as central bank support continues and so they blindly pile into momentum trades with no regard for fundamental valuations. Simply put, this works until it doesn’t, and when the music stops as it appeared to in mid April, there is simply no exit opportunity for most investors as prices decline in waterfall fashion in extremely illiquid markets. In these conditions, losses mount very quickly and months of gains are wiped out in just a few days. That certainly appeared to occur in Europe this week.
It is simply not possible to know with any certainty when these mini meltdowns will occur and why, and indeed, whether these will be followed by swift upside reversals or morph into real bear markets. All we can say is that they are the inevitable result of bubble markets and will happen when central banks either withdraw their support as the Swiss National Bank did in January (causing significant losses for many in the FX market), or market participants start to believe that central banks have lost control (think Bank of England in 1992).
Let’s take the example of the 10 year German bond shown in the chart below. At the peak price, the yield to maturity on the 10 year Bund was 0.05% per annum, thereby guaranteeing a total cumulative return of just 0.5% over 10 years if held to maturity. Of course, the bulls were arguing that capital gains were on offer as the ultra-easy monetary policies from the ECB could force the yield into negative territory, perhaps as low as minus 0.2%, and that they could sell to someone else (presumably the ECB) at a higher price sometime in the future. Whilst that was always possible, who in their right mind could argue that at a yield of 0.05% per annum the 10 year bund was not in a bubble? Subsequently and almost inevitably, not only did the price of the Bund future fall by 5.76% from high to low, it took only 13 days to wipe out 4 months of gains. For those holding Italian and Spanish debt because yields were above 1% per annum, prices fell by 7.4% and 7.1% respectively, as measured by the bond futures price.
Whilst we have been far from alone in describing negative bond yields as insane, investors need to allocate their money somewhere. With cash at zero or even negative, many have been advocating equities where yields of more than 3% are available and there is the chance of long term capital gains. German equities fell by nearly 10% at the same time as the bond prices were falling as illustrated in the chart below. There was no place for European investors to hide during this recent mini meltdown.

It would appear that the FED in the US was watching the events in Europe closely. Despite negative rates and QE from the ECB, the Fed is now clearly worried about the unintended consequences of their ultra-easy policies since the 2008 crisis. In our view, they should be concerned because the economic fallout from bursting financial bubbles is so much worse that garden variety recessions. In fact, it beggars belief that the Fed has recreated their third bubble in 15 years, knowing that when this bursts the negative feedback into the real economy will be significant.
Their concern about financial stability can been seen by the fact that, in just three days, five Fed Governors have talked about it. Admittedly, Fed governors are often scheduled to discuss financial instability, however, when we read these headlines, we can only believe that the Fed is more worried than ever about the creation of a significant bubble:
KOCHERLAKOTA: FED IS ALERT FOR FINANCIAL INSTABILITY RISKS (Our note; this is from the most dovish Fed governor)
GEORGE: CLEAR THAT MONETARY POLICY HAS IMPACT ON RISK TAKING
LOCKHART: NOT “INTENSELY CONCERNED” ABOUT STOCK VALUATIONS (Our note; he is obviously somewhat concerned)
EVANS: “NO DOUBT ABOUT IT” THAT STOCK MARKET IS HIGH
YELLEN: SAYS EQUITY MARKET VALUATION QUITE HIGH
Having ended QE late last year, the Fed have been building a narrative that they have everything under control. They argue that the economy is doing just fine. They would like to raise interest rates but the weak economic outcome is complicating matters and they want to see less highly valued financial markets without creating any panic. So far, investors have been generally buying into the Fed narrative, but they also did so in Europe, and then the markets there went into a mini meltdown. What happens if the US has a mini meltdown which leads to a bigger panic?
Maybe the way to look at these mini meltdowns is like living with the threat of an earthquake in Tokyo or California, When the sun is out and the skies are blue you don’t worry. However, a tremor causes temporary panic, even if it turns out to be a minor. Life gets back to normal pretty quickly but deep down, we all know that “the big one” is overdue. We also know that “the big one” could be devastating and that the authorities will be utterly unable to prevent it or protect people properly. Living a good life (like being invested during a bull market) means investors are prepared to tolerate minor quakes, even when the authorities begin to warn that they could get worse because investors satisfy themselves they can leave when the risks become more obvious.
The decent US employment report on Friday meant investors felt like they are waking up to a bright sunny morning without a cloud in the sky. The mini meltdown in European assets was like a minor tremor and the damage was limited. They want to get back to life as “normal” despite warnings from the authorities.
So, to sum up here. The benign result of the UK election arrived as markets seemingly survived a mini meltdown in Europe. The authorities are working hard to convince us that they have everything under control which may encourage further speculation and push prices to new record highs. However, we view the action this past week as a warning to investors. The central banks fragile veneer of control could crumble at any time, or they may even choose to change policies that risk causing a larger panic. The timing of the start of a bear market in equities is uncertain but we believe the risks of staying invested in most equity and bond markets is both high and increasing. Unfortunately, there are very few safe assets that offer anything near a decent return, which is why investors keep reaching for yield in risky assets. The credibility for those investors who continue to avoid assets that are clearly in a bubble is being severely tested, as was the case in 1999 and 2007 and probably in 1929. Patience will be rewarded at some point, and those investors mostly in cash will be extremely pleased with themselves when the mini meltdowns turn into something bigger.
Stewart Richardson
Chief Investment Officer

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketviews.com/benign-uk-election-result-end-mini-meltdown-europe/