怎樣從歐元疲軟中獲利

近期的歐元疲軟已經使美國消費者獲益，因為現在的美元比幾個月以前能買入更多的歐元。這使得去歐洲旅遊更加便宜，有可能導致美國從歐洲進口貨物更加便宜甚至可能使美國的抵押貸款利率更低。外匯市場的變化非常迅速，所以消費者想要從這次歐元下跌中快速反映獲取利益。（你需要了解從股票到外匯市場如何調整報價，保證金，利差和滾動。了解更多請看：《外匯市場入門》。）

背景

不久之前，美元由於其在抵抗衰退和經濟危機中的花費導致的高逆差是世界範圍內的笑柄，導致投資者更傾向於那些財政狀況似乎更好的國家的貨幣。歐元是那個趨勢中的主要獲益者，它在過去多年對美元的兌換中保持強勁姿態。

專家甚至公開談論取代美元的世界儲備貨幣地位，並用歐元或者其他一系列貨幣取代它。傳言席卷市場，石油輸出國組織的一些成員決定由於美元的疲軟不再在石油交易中接收美元。（石油輸出國組織的決定影響油價，但是其力量有限。在Meet OPEC, Manager Of Oil Wealth中了解更多。）

然而，2010年早期，由於希臘在進入資本市場中遇到麻煩，市場開始關註許多歐洲國家的經濟狀況。市場擔心歐洲主權債務蔓延到其他國家，包括西班牙、葡萄牙、愛爾蘭和意大利。在過去六個月中，歐元對美元的價值從1.2287美元每歐元下降了20%。

旅遊

最明顯的好處是美國人到歐洲旅遊。假設兩個大學室友計劃攢錢夏天去歐洲大陸旅遊，並從2010年早期開始計劃。一個室友看到了2009年9月的美元暴跌，在當時以66美分每歐元的匯率把4000美元兌換成了歐元。他獲得了大概2640歐元，並且感覺旅行相當不錯。他的朋友比價懶直到上週才開始執行計劃。他以81美分每歐元的匯率兌換了4000美元，得到大約3200歐元，比他的好友多得到大概600美元。

歐洲貨物

歐元價格下降在美國人支付歐洲貨物的影響有一點小複雜。標準經濟理論認為，當一個國家的貨幣貶值，這個國家貨物在國際出口市場上的價格降低並說明出口。雖然這是正確的，一些緩和因素可能減緩歐元對美元下跌帶來的好處。

中間商和零售商可能為了自己的好處保持貨物價格不變，希望美國消費正不會關註每日的匯率浮動。

即使存在這些複雜因素，消費者也註意到了一些歐洲商品的價格已經開始下降，當地報紙報道奶酪、葡萄酒和其他消費品的價格開始下降。

許多產品使用石油為基础的原材料並在供應鏈上。由於石油仍然以美元計價，隨著歐元下跌，油價對這些制造商來說變得更加昂貴並削減利潤。運輸成本也隨著石油的價格一起上升。這可能導致歐洲公司提高產品價格以彌補越來越高的成本，消除或者減少匯率變化對美國人的好處。

抵押好處

歐元下跌和對歐洲主權債務危機的恐慌也讓美國利率的下調，說明美國人尋找抵押購買住房。當全球資本轉變為以美元計價的資產，被投資在最具流動性的金融工具裡面。這種高需求導致價格上升利率下降，說明新買家和可調利率抵押貸款的美國人根據國債利率重置利率。

持續的歐洲主權債務危機使美國幸災樂禍，因為傳統智慧里“可悲的”美元近期不會出現。美國消費者也似乎在歐元對美元每天的新低中收益，同時讓旅遊和貨物進口更加便宜。

How You Can Benefit From A Weak Euro 

The recent weakness in the euro has led to benefits for American consumers, as the U.S. dollar can buy significantly more euros than just a few months ago. This makes travel to Europe cheaper, may lead to lower prices for items in America that are imported from Europe and even helps lower rates on mortgages in the U.S. Things can change quickly in the foreign exchange market, so consumers might want to act quickly to take advantage of the falling euro. (Moving from equities to currencies requires you to adjust how you interpret quotes, margin, spreads and rollovers. Learn more; read A Primer On The Forex Market.)

Background
Not too long ago, the U.S. dollar was the butt of jokes around the world as higher deficit spending used to fight the recession and financial crisis caused investors to favor currencies of nations that seemed in better financial condition. The euro was one of the main beneficiaries of this trend, as it gained strength against the dollar over a multi-year period.

Pundits even talked openly about replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency and replacing it with the euro or a basket of other currencies. Rumors swept the market that some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC) were considering not accepting dollars for oil sales any longer due to the weakening currency. (OPEC's decisions can influence oil prices, but there is a limit to its power. Learn more in Meet OPEC, Manager Of Oil Wealth.)

However, earlier in 2010, the market turned its attention toward the finances of many European nations, as Greece started to have trouble accessing the capital markets. Market worries about the European sovereign debt then spread to other nations, including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. Over the last six months, the euro has declined in value as much as 20% versus the dollar, with a euro worth 1.2287 dollars.
Travel

The most obvious benefit is for travel by Americans to Europe. Let's say that two college roommates were setting up a trip to the continent in the summer, and started planning in early 2010. One roommate saw the plunging dollar and in December 2009, exchanged $4,000 into euros at the exchange rate back then of 66 cents per euro. He netted approximately 2,640 euros and felt pretty good about the trip. His friend was a little lazier and waited until last week. His $4,000 nest egg was converted at the current rate of 81 cents per euro, yielding approximately 3,200 euros, about 600 euros more than his buddy.

European Goods

The effect of a falling euro on the prices that Americans pay for European goods is a little more complex. Standard economic theory holds that when a nation's currency depreciates, it makes goods cheaper on the international market and helps exports. While this is true, some mitigating factors may prevent a flow through of all the benefits of a falling euro against the dollar.

Middlemen and retailers in the U.S. may capture some of the currency benefit for themselves and keep prices the same, hoping perhaps that U.S. consumers don't pay attention to daily currency fluctuations.

Many products also use petroleum-based raw material inputs somewhere in the supply chain. Since oil is still denominated in dollars, as the euro falls, oil will become more expensive to these manufacturers and might cut profit margins. Transportation costs may also rise with the price of oil. This may lead European companies to raise prices to cover higher costs, erasing or limiting any benefits of the currency change for Americans.

Even with these complexities, consumers have already started to notice that the prices of some European goods have fallen, with local newspapers reporting price declines for cheese, wine and other consumables.
Mortgage Benefits

The falling euro and panic over the European sovereign debt crisis also lowers interest rates in the U.S., helping Americans looking for a mortgage to buy a home. As global capital shifts into dollar-denominated assets, it is invested in the most liquid financial instruments, typically U.S. government obligations. This high demand pushes prices up and lowers interest rates, helping both new buyers and Americans with adjustable-rate mortgages that reset based on Treasury rates.

The continuing European sovereign debt crisis has led to schadenfreude for the U.S., as the conventional wisdom about the "pathetic" U.S. dollar appears to be premature. American consumers are also seeing a benefit as the value of the euro versus the U.S. dollar seems to hit a new low every day, making travel and imported goods cheaper as well.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0710/how-you-can-benefit-from-a-weak-euro.aspx