Dr Matthew Partridge，21/05/2015
抗議者在洛杉矶實現了他們的願望
洛杉矶已同意全市範圍内最低的工資標準$15，紐約也被敦促效仿。這會促進收入增加或者，僅僅是增加失業率？
發生了什麼？
洛杉矶城市議會已經通過初步計劃，預計將會正式批準：到2020年每小時的最低工資標準為$15（以當前的匯率計算是£9.60）。有些小公司的最低工資標準會到2022年實現，之後最低工資標準將會與通貨膨脹水平挂鈎。這將比當前加州最低$9的工資標準高2/3,加州的最低工資標準沒有根據上升的物價自動調整。
西雅圖和舊金山緊隨洛杉矶的腳步（二者都會在2019年生效）。紐約也在考慮快餐業的最低工資標準。國會有些議員甚至提出將全國的最低工資標準提高到$12每小時。然而，《紐約時報》指出，控制著兩院的共和黨人甚至沒有考慮增加工資標準。
美國剩下的城市會如何做？
最低工資標準是由當地、州、國家決定的。最慷慨的是華盛頓州，它的最低工資標準是$9.47每小時。然而，五分之二的州（包括德克薩斯州）的最低工資標準仍然是2009年時提高的$7.25每小時。
同時，那些收取小費的工人每小時工資僅為$2.13，雖然雇主會在他們總收入低於最低工資標準的時候彌補差額。皮尤研究中心指出，由於通貨膨脹，美國國家的最低工資標準實際上在1968年達到峰值，當時是$1.60，相當於現在的$8.54（盡管當時一些工人被排除在外）。
Ben Casselman指出，如果排除在大城市生活的多餘成本的話，西雅圖當前$11的標準實際上低於美國的最低工資標準。
為什麼最低工資標準應該上漲？
提高最低工資標準的最主要論點是減少不平等性。總體而言，3百萬工人領取全國最低工資標準，更有近2千萬工人的工資“接近最低工資標準”。
提高他們的工資會提高他們的生活水平，減少不平等性。並且，我們正在讨論的是一個相當大的數字——洛杉矶大概有46%的工人工資低於$15。
支持者指出，如此低的工資標準實際上是需要所在州的稅收減免以及食品補貼券補助的——正如Barry Ritholtz在彭博資訊上指出的那樣，麥當勞幾年前建立一個網站展示它的員工是如何申請該資助時，觸犯了衆怒。據估計，僅僅低工資的餐飲行業員工已經索取了70億美元的資助。
這有可能產生相反效果嗎？
批評者認為，提高最低工資可能會產生工人離開市場的代價。Meghan McArdle認為長遠來看，“在資金從消費者到雇主再到員工之間的淨轉移中，一些企業的員工會減少”。Forbes’ Tim Worstall宣稱，有迹象表明，最低工資標準的提高導致西雅圖（最低工資標準為$15）餐飲業倒閉的速度加快。
另外一個潛在的後果是，它將會迫使企業擡高價格，推高通貨膨脹，並降低工人的購買力。事實上，華盛頓大學Berkeley進行的一個學術研究表明，為了彌補最低工資的提高，西雅圖的價格會升高5%左右。
別的國家是否有類似的争論？
其他國家也存在類似的問題。在英國，有越來越多的人要求提高全國的最低工資標準（近年來工資標準的實際價值在下降，它沒有與價格聯系起來）。一些人宣稱，最低工資標準應該達到“生活工資”水平，當前倫敦的生活成本估計為£9.15每小時，首都之外的生活成本為£7.85。
相比之下，為了使經濟更具有競争力，希臘從2012年開始已經削減了最低工資標準的20%（盡管新政府宣佈提高它）。
雖然美國現狀的捍衛者指出別的發達國家也有相比較利率，但事實上，《經濟學家》計算得出，考慮到美國的GDP，最低工資標準應該接近$12。
除了提高最低工資標準之外還有別的辦法嗎？
一個解決方法是降低低收入工人的稅收。政策研究中心認為的Adam Memon認為“如果低收入者繳納較低的稅收，工人的收入會需要更少的稅後補貼與就業福利，而那些失業的人也與重新就業的動力”。
反對政黨的另外一個建議是提高工會的力量，這樣他們就有能力去進行更高的工資談判。德國直到去年才有最低的工資標準，集體談判工資水平差維持在較低水平。
Will raising the minimum wage be good or bad for America?
Dr Matthew Partridge，21/05/2015
Protestors have got their wish in Los Angeles
Los Angeles has agreed a city-wide minimum wage of $15, and New York is being urged to follow suit. Will it boost incomes, or simply increase unemployment?
What’s going on?
Los Angeles City Council has approved preliminary plans, expected to be formally approved, to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour (£9.60/hr at current exchange rates) by 2020. While some workers in small firms would not be covered until 2022, the levels would be indexed to inflation from then on. This would be two-thirds higher than the current Californian minimum wage of $9/hr, which is not automatically adjusted for rising prices.
The move follows similar steps by Seattle and San Francisco (which are both due to come into full effect in 2019). New York is also considering raising the minimum wage for workers in the fast-food industry.
There are even moves by some in Congress to raise the national minimum wage level to $12/hr. However, the New York Times notes that the Republicans, who control both houses, are opposed “to even considering an increase”.
What about the rest of the US?
Minimum wages are decided at the local, state and national levels, with workers getting the highest rate. The most generous state is Washington, with a minimum wage of $9.47 an hour. However, in two-fifths of states (including Texas) workers are only entitled to the national rate of $7.25 an hour, a level last raised in 2009.
Meanwhile, workers who receive tips are only entitled to $2.13 per hour, although employers have to make up any difference if total earnings fall below the minimum. Due to inflation, the US national minimum wage actually peaked in 1968 when it stood at $1.60 per hour, equivalent to $8.54 per hour today (though a few workers were exempt), notes Pew Research Centre.
Ben Casselman of 538.com points out that the extra cost of living in big cities means that Seattle’s current rate of $11 is effectively less than the US minimum.
Why should the minimum wage rise?
The main argument for increasing the minimum wage is to reduce inequality. Overall, 3 million workers are paid the national minimum wage, with a further 20 million classed as “near-minimum wage workers”.
Raising their wages would improve their standard of living, reducing inequality. And this is a significant number of people we’re talking about – around 46% of workers in Los Angeles earn less than $15 an hour.
Supporters point out that such low-wage jobs are effectively subsidised by the state via tax credits and food stamps – as Barry Ritholtz points out on Bloomberg View, a few years ago McDonald’s generated outrage when it set up a website advising its staff on how to claim benefits. Overall, it’s been estimated that the staff in the low-waged fast-food industry alone claim $7bn in benefits.
Could this backfire?
Critics argue that high minimum wages will end up pricing workers out of the market. Meghan McArdle argues that in the long run, “along with a net transfer of money from owners and customers to employees, there will also simply be fewer employees in some businesses”. Forbes’ Tim Worstall claims there is evidence that the minimum wage is causing an increase in the rate of restaurant closings in Seattle (which is also adopting a $15 minimum).
Another potential consequence is that it will force businesses to raise prices, pushing up inflation and reducing the purchasing power of workers. Indeed, a study by academics from the University of Washington and University of California, Berkeley suggest that prices will have to rise in Seattle by around 5% to compensate for the higher wages.
Are there similar debates in other countries?
Other countries are having similar debates. In Britain, there is a growing clamour to increase the national minimum wage (which has fallen in real value in recent years since it is linked to average wages, not prices). Many campaigners argue that levels should be brought up to that of the “living wage”, currently estimated at £9.15 per hour in London and £7.85 outside the capital.
By contrast, Greece has slashed its minimum wage by 20% since 2012 (although the new government has pledged to raise it), in order to make the economy more competitive.
While defenders of the status quo in the US point that other developed countries have comparable rates, others dispute this. Indeed, the Economist calculated that, taking America’s GDP into account, the minimum wage should be closer to $12.
Are there any alternatives to higher minimum wages?
One solution is to cut the taxes of lower-paid workers. Adam Memon of the Centre for Policy Studies thinks that “if low earners are taxed less, there will be less of a need to supplement post-tax incomes with in-work benefits and people who are out of work will have a stronger incentive to move into a job”.
Another suggestion from the opposite part of the political spectrum is to increase the power of trade unions, so they are able to negotiate higher wages. While Germany did not have a national minimum wage until last year, collective wage bargaining has kept wage differentials low.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://moneyweek.com/will-raising-the-minimum-wage-be-good-or-bad-for-america/