美元和歐元一起形成了世界上交易最多的貨幣對並且可能很快變成一個最具風險的貨幣對。美聯儲和歐元區央行都在展開重大的政治活動：美國的利率上調和歐元區的量化寬松。在本文中我們將檢查貨幣數據和探索即將到來的變化以評估歐元/美元現在的風險。
什麼是貨幣對？
在一個貨幣對中，交易員用另一種貨幣購買一種貨幣。在歐元/美元貨幣對中，歐元是分子因此被稱為基礎貨幣。美元是分母，因此叫報價貨幣。每一個貨幣對都有基礎貨幣和報價貨幣。通過觀察貨幣對我們可以知道哪種貨幣相對另一種貨幣價值更高。例如，,如果歐元/美元匯率是1.1187,這意味著價格買入1歐元(基礎貨幣)是1.1187美元(報價貨幣)。在這種情況下,歐元比美元價值更高。
各自貨幣的價值是由通貨膨脹,貸款利率,就業數據、工業生產、零售銷售和其他數據等因素決定。其中一些因素也和其他因素正相關或者負相關。因此，任何對歐元/美元貨幣對的交易，就必須了解兩國的經濟數據,能夠跟蹤和理解這些數據的變化將如何影響價格。歐元/美元貨幣對的大新聞是美國聯邦儲備銀行(美聯儲)提高利率和歐洲央行(ECB)的量化寬松政策。
過去表現
在2014年5月到2015年4月的過去一年中，歐元/美元從1.3869（1歐元兌1.3869美元）的最高點跌落到1.11449(1歐元兌1.1144美元）的底點。2014年10月,美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲,fed)結束其定量寬松計劃。2015年1月,歐洲央行(ecb)超過了所有人的預期，宣佈自己的大規模定量寬松計劃。在2015年3月開始，至少到2016年9月結束，歐洲央行(ecb)將每月購買價值600億歐元的債券。這導致歐元/美元對越來越弱，歐元/美元從2015年1月宣佈時1.1652跌到2015年4月的1.1144。然而，如果政治和經濟預測不按預期進行時，有些因素交易員在將要面對風險的時候需要找出來。
美聯儲將會在何時提高利率？
第一個主要風險美國貸款利率的不確定性。美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲,fed)在其2014年12月結束的季度回顧說,他們將對提高利率有耐心。然而,在3月份的最新政策評估中，他們不再使用耐心這個詞，似乎即將宣佈加息。然而，低於預期的經濟增長指標低於目標的通貨膨脹導致美聯儲即將加息。預測者認為美聯儲將在2015年6月和9月之間宣佈加息。這很有可能因為投資者湧向美國債券市場並加強美元使歐元/美元匯率下降。
另一個風險是美國經濟依賴國内消費，占整體經濟的70%。消費直接和就業和工資相關。所以就有就業報告發佈後歐元/美元上下浮動的風險。（閱讀更多請看：（歐元/美元在糟糕的就業數據報告後的反彈）
通脹也是一個貨幣對交易風險的考慮因素。由於大宗商品價格的不斷下跌美國和歐洲都不能保持一個穩定的通脹率，盡管美國比歐洲好些。但是隨著石油和大宗商品價格的下跌，需要一段時間才能達到目標水平。然而，美國可能回避歐洲更早面臨通貨膨脹。這使得歐元/美元貨幣對有匯率上升的風險。
如果歐元下跌怎麼辦？
還有一個由希臘危機和希臘償不能還歐元區債務和退出歐元區的可能的不確定性帶來的風險。然而，希臘的GDP只占歐元區總GDP的百分之二，希臘違約或者退出歐元區不大可能對歐元帶來任何威脅。然而，希臘退出歐元區可能導致一個多米諾骨牌效應，導致意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙隨之退出歐元區。這樣的事件將會影響歐元的存在。然而，如果歐元能挺過這樣一個事件，歐元區將會變成一個整體更強的經濟體且歐元將會對美元升值。
總結
利率、通貨膨脹、經濟增長、生產、和就業在決定一個國家的貨幣的價值中都扮演一個角色。外匯交易員應該遵循經濟日歷並追蹤該數據的定期發佈和管理風險。面對對於即將到來的美國美聯儲息升和目前正在進行由歐洲央行(ecb)雄心勃勃的債券購買計劃，交易員可以安全地在未來4 - 6個月歐元/美元看跌押註。
What Makes the EUR/USD A Risky Trade Now?
By Kushal Agarwal | May 22, 2015
Together, the U.S. dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR) form the most traded currency pair in the world and they may soon become one of the riskiest as well. Both the central bank of the United States and the eurozone (the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, respectively) are on the cusp of significant policy actions: an interest rate hike in the United States and the beginning of a massive quantitative easing program in the eurozone. In this article, we will examine currency data and explore upcoming policy changes to assess how risky the EUR/USD trading pair is now.
What is a Currency Pair?
In a currency pair, traders buy quantities of one currency using another currency. In the EUR/USD currency pair, the euro is the numerator and is thus called the base currency. The U.S. dollar is the denominator and called the quote currency. Every pair has base currency and a quote currency. By looking at the pair we can tell which currency is valued more relative to the other. For example, if the EUR/USD currency pair is 1.1187, that means that the price to buy 1 euro (base currency) is 1.1187 U.S. dollar (quote currency). In this case, the U.S. dollar is worth less than the euro.
The value of the respective currencies is determined by factors such as inflation, lending rates, employment data, industrial production, retail sales, and other data. Some of these factors are also tied to each other in either a positive or negative correlation. Thus, for anyone trading in the EUR/USD currency pair, it is absolutely necessary to be aware of the economic data of the two countries and to be able to track and understand how changes in these data will affect the price of the pair. The big news in the EUR/USD currency pair is the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) raising interest rates and quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Past Performance
During the last year—from May 2014 to April 2015—the EUR/USD pair has fallen from a high of 1.3869 (1 euro buys 1.3869 US dollars) to a low of 1.1144 (1 euro buys 1.1144 US dollars). In October 2014, the U.S. Federal Reserve ended its quantitative easing program. In January 2015, the European Central Bank surpassed all expectations when it announced its own massive quantitative easing program. Beginning in March 2015 until at least September 2016, the European Central bank will buy 60 billion euro worth of bonds per month. This has led to the EUR/USD pair getting weaker from a high of EUR/USD of 1.1652 before January 2015 announcement to 1.1144 as of April 2015. However, there are factors that a trader should look out for as they may pose a risk if the policies or economic forecast do not go as planned.
When Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates?
The first major risk is the uncertainty over U.S. lending rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve said in its December 2014 ending quarterly review that they will be patient with the decision on increasing interest rates. However, in the latest policy review in March, they no longer used the word patient and appeared to be on track to announce an interest rate hike. However, lower-than-expected economic growth indicators and inflation below targets led the Fed to push the interest rate hike back. Forecasters think the Fed will announce the hike between June and September of 2015. This will likely push the EUR/USD even lower as investors will flock to U.S. bond market and strengthen the dollar.
Another risk is the U.S. economy’s reliance on domestic consumption, which makes up 70 percent of the economy. Consumption is directly related to employment and payroll. So there is both a downward or upward risk depending on how the employment data, which is notoriously fickle, plays out. (Read more EUR/USD Rallies After Bad Jobs Report)
Inflation is also a consideration for risk in the currency pair trading. Both the United States and Europe are unable to effect a steady inflation due to falling commodity prices, though the United States is doing better than Europe. But with falling oil and commodity prices, inflation will take time to reach target levels. However, the United States will probably face inflation sooner than Europe. This presents a upside risk to the EUR/USD currency pair.
What if the Euro Falls?
There is also a risk posed by the Greek crisis and the uncertainty over a possible Greek exit and default from the eurozone. However, as Greece's gross domestic product (GDP) is just 2 percent of the total eurozone GDP, it is unlikely that its exit or a default on its debt will pose any danger for the euro. However, there is a chance that a Greek exit from the euro could creates a domino effect and pave the way for Italy, Spain, and Portugal to follow in exiting the euro. Such an event would threaten the very existence of the euro; however, if the euro survives such a walkout, it will be comprised of an overall stronger economic group and the euro will likely gain value against the U.S. dollar.
The Bottom Line
Interest rates, inflation, economic growth, production, and employment all play a role in determining the value of a country’s currency. Currency traders should follow an economic calendar to track the periodic releases of this data and manage risks. Given the looming interest rate hike by the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank’s ambitious bond purchase program currently underway, traders can safely make a bearish bet on EUR/USD for the next 4-6 months.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/052215/what-makes-eurusd-risky-trade-now.asp