人民幣貶值

Matthew Johnston 

僅僅是一週之前中國人民銀行用三次人民幣連續的貶值震驚了市場，使人民幣價值下降3%。自從2005年以來，人民幣相對於美元價值上升了33%，8月11日的貶值是20年來的幅度最大的一次。雖然此舉是意想不到的而且許多人相信此舉是中國為了刺激出口進行的絕望的嘗試，中國人民銀行聲稱貶值是面向更加以市場為源頭的經濟改革的一部分。貶值規模的大小似乎符合市場基本面，因此至少在現在，中國人民銀行的聲明是可以相信的。

驚慌失措的市場
在10多年相對於美元的穩定升值後，投資者已經習慣於人民幣的穩定和不斷增長的價值。因此，與有些匯率幾天內可能發生的兩位數的變化相比，一個微不足道的3%多一點的變化就使投資者十分慌亂。

美國股票市場，包括道瓊斯工業平均指數、標準普爾500平均指數和納斯達克，歐洲和拉丁美洲市場都因此次貶值而下跌。盡管一些人認為此舉是中國經濟表現低於預期的信號並且此舉是想讓其出口更有吸引力，但是中國人民銀行卻指出貶值是由其他因素驅動的。

貶值：僅僅是自由市場改革政策的結果
中國國家主席習近平從他兩年前上台時就承諾中國政府將致力於使經濟更加以市場為導向。這和中國決定成為國際貨幣基金組織特別提款權貨幣一起使中國人民銀行聲稱貶值是允許市場在決定人民幣價值時起更工具性作用措施的結果更容易使人相信。康奈爾大學的一個教授表示此舉有助於中國獲得特別提款權貨幣地位並聲稱這和中國“緩慢但是穩定”的以市場為導向的改革吻合。

國際貨幣基金組織每五年重新評估其特別提款權貨幣籃子構成，上一次是在2010年。那次人民幣因為不能“自由使用”被拒絕，但是這次聲稱是由於市場為源頭的改革的貶值受到世界貨幣基金組織的歡迎，它已經考慮把人民幣劃進特別提款權籃子。雖然做出了歡迎，國際貨幣基金組織也強調中國仍需做更多努力並願意進行“自由浮動匯率。”

許多人懷疑中國的承諾，認為新的匯率改革政策並沒有發生改變而且還是類似的“管理的浮動”，貶值只是另一個人工干預而且人民幣的價值將繼續會被中國人民銀行密切監事和管理。持懷疑態度的人認為此舉是中國為了提高其出口進行匯率操縱的進一步證據。

貶值與市場基本面保持一致
貶值僅僅幾天後數據顯示中國的出口量大幅下降，許多人認為中國堅持說貶值是市場導向改革驅動的僅僅是一個借口。中國政府聲稱七月份出口比上年下降83%。新聞成為利率下調和財務刺激沒有達到希望效果的證據，許多人解釋貶值是為了是刺激中國蕭條的經濟的絕望的嘗試並防止出口進一步下滑。

美國政府非常憤怒，美國政界人士許多年來一直聲稱中國以犧牲美國出口商為代價人為控制低匯率。許多人認為中國的貨幣貶值是貨幣戰爭開始的信號並將加劇貿易緊張。雖然低價值人民幣能給中國一定程度的優勢，最近的舉措成為中國放棄這一想法的原因，或許他們的聲明是可信的。

雖然此次貶值是過去20年中幅度最大的，人民幣在貿易加權角度來說還是比一年前強勁。在過去20多年中，人民幣相對於其他主要貨幣都在升值。這包括相對於美元的升值。從本質上來說，中國的政策允許市場決定人民幣運動的走向從而限制其升值的速率。但是，隨著中國經濟在最近幾年大幅度放緩而美國經濟相對表現較好，人民幣的繼續升值已經不再符合市場基本面。

了解基本面使你能了解中國人民銀行進行的小幅度貶值是一個必要的調整而不是以鄰為壑的匯率操縱。雖然許多美國政界人士可能會抱怨，中國實際上正在允許市場決定人民幣的價值。只要在未來人民沒有大幅度價值下降，那麼中國人民銀行就不會自食其言。

總結
盡管市場非常吃驚並且被指責人為操縱匯率，中國對最近的人民幣貶值有很好的理由。中國經濟增長放緩和美元走強使人民幣貶值和市場基本面溫和。不去管中國的出口可能從人民幣貶值中獲得推動的事實，此舉與中國政府允許市場在決定經濟結果時的更大作用的承諾吻合。

The Chinese Devaluation of the Yuan
By Matthew Johnston | September 02, 2015 

Just over one week ago the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets with three consecutive devaluations of the yuan, knocking over 3% off its value. Since 2005, China’s currency has appreciated 33% against the US dollar and the first devaluation on August 11 marked the largest single drop in 20 years. While the move was unexpected and believed by many to be a desperate attempt by China to boost exports in support of an economy that is growing at its slowest rate in a quarter century, the PBOC claims that the devaluation is all part of its reforms to move towards a more market-oriented economy. The relative size of the devaluation appears to be in line with market fundamentals and thus, at least for now, the PBOC’s claims can be believed.

Surprised Markets
After a decade of a steady appreciation against the US dollar, investors had become accustomed to the stability and growing strength of the yuan. Thus, while a somewhat insignificant change compared to exchange rates that can sometimes move double-digit percentages over several days, the more than 3% drop had investors rattled.

U.S. stock markets, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as well as European and Latin American markets fell in response to the devaluation. While some argue that the move is a sign that China’s economy is performing worse than expected and the move is an attempt to make exports more attractive, the PBOC indicated that the devaluation was motivated by other factors.

Devaluation: Just the Result of Free-Market Reform Policies
China’s president Xi Jinping has pledged the government’s commitment to reforming China’s economy in a more market-oriented direction ever since he first took office over two years ago. That and the fact that China is determined to be included in the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDR) basket of reserve currencies makes the POBC’s claim that the devaluation was the result of measures taken to allow the market to have a more instrumental role in determining the yuan’s value more believable. One professor at Cornell University indicated that the move should help China’s case for SDR reserve currency status and claimed that it was also consistent with China’s “slow but steady” market-oriented reforms.

The IMF re-evaluates the currency composition of its SDR basket every five years, the last time being in 2010. At that time the yuan was rejected on the basis that it was not “freely usable,” but the devaluation, supported by the claim that it was done in the name of market-oriented reforms is being welcomed by the IMF as it gets set to consider the yuan’s inclusion. But despite this welcomed response, the IMF has stressed that China will still have to do more and be willing to progress towards a “freely floating exchange rate.”

Many are skeptical of China’s commitment, arguing that the new exchange-rate policy really hasn’t changed and is still akin to a “managed float;” the devaluation is just another intervention and the yuan’s value will continue to be closely monitored and managed by the PBOC. The skeptics believe that the move was further evidence of China’s continued exchange-rate manipulation in order to boost its sputtering exports. (See also: 5 Economic Effects Of Country Liberalization.)

Devaluation Consistent with Market Fundamentals
With the devaluation occurring just days after data showed a sharp fall in China’s exports, many believe that China's insistance that the move was motivated by market-oriented reforms is just a convenient excuse. The Chinese government claimed that its exports had fallen 8.3% in July from the previous year. As the news is evidence that its interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus were not as effective as hoped, many interpret the devaluation as a desperate attempt to stimulate China's sluggish economy and keep exports from falling further.

Washington was especially incensed, as U.S. politicians have been claiming for years that China has kept its currency artificially low at the expense of American exporters. Some believe that China’s devaluation of the yuan is just the beginning of a currency war that could lead to increasing trade tensions. Despite the fact that a lower valued yuan does give China somewhat of a competitive advantage, China has readily dismissed the idea that this was the reason for the recent move, and perhaps there are reasons that they can be believed.

While the drop in the value of the yuan was the largest in 20 years, the yuan is still stronger than it was only a year ago in trade-weighted terms. Over the past 20 years, the yuan has been appreciating relative to nearly every other major currency. This includes appreciation against the US dollar. Essentially, China’s policy has allowed the market to determine the direction of the yuan’s movement while restricting the rate at which it appreciates. But, as China’s economy has slowed significantly in the last number of years while the U.S. economy has done relatively better, a continued rise in the yuan’s value no longer aligns with market fundamentals.

Understanding the market fundamentals allows one to see the small devaluation by the PBOC as a necessary adjustment rather than a beggar-thy-neighbor manipulation of the exchange-rate. While many American politicians may grumble, China is actually doing what the U.S. has prodded it to do for years—allow the market to determine the yuan’s value. So long as there are no major declines in the yuan’s value going forward it appears that the PBOC can be taken at its word. (For more, see: What Causes A Currency Crisis?)

The Bottom Line
Despite surprising markets and being critiqued for exchange-rate manipulation, China has a good reason for the recent devaluation of the yuan. With slower growth in China and a strengthening US dollar, allowing the yuan to depreciate is in line with market fundamentals. Regardless of the fact that China’s exports may get a boost from the deprecating yuan, the move is consistent with the Chinese government’s commitment to let the market play a greater role in determining economic outcomes.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/090215/chinese-devalua