Adam Hayes 2015年9月16日
大宗商品的交易價格已經接近歷史最低點。原油價格已經從一年前的100美元每桶左右下跌到了現在45美元左右。其他大宗商品的價格也低於近幾年的最低價格。
銅的價格自2008年以來就沒這麼低過，每盎司的黃金價格從接近2000美元下跌到1100美元左右，是5年來的最低價格。追蹤從金屬到能源的大宗商品價格的高盛商品指數，達到了2007年之後的最低點，比去年同期下跌了大約43%。
投資者可以通過期貨合約或者買入追蹤大宗商品的ETF直接接觸大宗商品。
價格低迷的一部分原因是更高效的生產和提取過程導致了供應過剩。隨著中國經濟的放緩，來自亞洲的需求下降也是一個因素。低迷的大宗商品價格可能引起警覺，或者能預示著一個為你的投資組合添加一個重要的資產類別的機會。這裡是為什麼大宗商品應該是全面的投資計劃一部分的原因。
大宗商品可以成為通貨膨脹的對沖
通貨膨脹時所有物價水平上升，有效的降低貨幣價值。通常，某些大宗商品能對沖通脹，保證投資者的購買力。可儲藏的大宗商品和貴金屬在通脹時期表現都很好。然而其他大宗商品，和通脹沒有聯系不能對價格的上漲提供保護。消耗品、非儲藏類大宗商品對沖通脹的能力很差。原油在20世紀70年代的通脹中起到了很好的對沖作用，在其他時間則被證明對沖通脹的能力很差。令人驚訝的是，咖啡被證明是美元很好的對沖。
在大蕭條之後全球的通脹水平都很低。但是不可能永遠都如此。如果未來通脹水平上升，持有貴金屬或者咖啡期貨可能是個不錯的選擇。
大宗商品可以使投資組合多樣化
雖然一些大宗商品與通脹有關聯，但是大多數表現出與傳統的股票和債券很小的相關性。現在投資組合理論規定通過向現在資產添加低或者負相關的資產類別，投資者在減小風險的同時可以保持預期回報。一個理性的投資者在最大化預期回報的同時減小風險，關聯性很低大宗商品和傳統資產幫助實現這一目標。
人口統計學：增長的全球人口將會需要資源
全球人口已經接近75億，而這些人每天都需要食品和能源。農業產品在現在的低價格下可能是個不錯的投資。能源產品的選擇越來越多，例如風能和太陽能等可再生資源，但是在可預見的未來石油仍然對許多國家來說是個更實惠的選擇。人口增長的速度沒有慢下來，這將給自然資源和糧食儲備帶來壓力。
總結
在過去十年中大宗商品價格從來沒這麼低過。石油、金屬和糧食等大宗商品隨著全球經濟開始動蕩、亞洲需求下降而下跌。同時生產成本降低，供應開始增加。
不過，這也可能是投資者以低廉價格買入大宗商品的機會，因為這提供一個超過簡單價格上升帶來的好處。可儲藏的大宗商品可以作為通貨膨脹很好的對沖，同時大宗商品還以多樣化投資組合降低風險而不用削減預期收益。判斷任何市場的時機都是非常困難的，但是這些價格已經接近了多年未見的低點。
3 Reasons to Invest in Discounted Commodities
By Adam Hayes, CFA | September 16, 2015
Commodity prices are trading at near all-time lows. Crude oil has dropped from more than $100 a barrel a year ago to around $45 today. And the prices of several other commodities are also lower than they've been in years.
The price of copper hasn't been this low since 2008 and the value an ounce of gold has dropped from nearly $2,000 to around $1,100, its lowest level in five years. The GSCI Index, which tracks the prices of commodities ranging from metals to energy, is trading at its lowest level since it was created in 2007, and is down almost 43% over the past twelve months.
Investors can get direct exposure to commodities via futures contracts or by buying ETFs that track commodities. For example, the iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed (GSG) tracks the GSCI Index.
Part of the reason for the depressed prices is that more efficient production and extraction processes have led to a glut. Decreased demand from Asia is also a factor, as the Chinese economy has begun to falter. Depressed commodity prices may be cause for caution, or they may signal a rare opportunity to add this important asset class to your portfolio. Here's why commodities can should be part of any well-rounded investment plan.
Commodities Can Be a Hedge Against Inflation
Inflation is when the price level of all things rises, effectively making currency less valuable. Traditionally, certain commodities have been a hedge against inflation, protecting the purchasing power of an investor. Storable commodities such as metals (e.g. copper) and precious metals (e.g. gold, silver, palladium, etc.) have historically done well during times of inflation. Other commodities, however, have no correlation with inflation and will not protect against rising prices. Consumable, non-storable commodities such as food & agricultural products tend to be poor hedges against inflation. While oil was a good hedge against inflation during the oil crisis of the 1970s, it proved to be a poor hedge in other periods. Surprisingly, coffee has proven to be an effective hedge against a falling dollar.
Inflation levels have been quite low worldwide following the Great Recession. But that may not remain the case forever. If inflation picks up in the future, holding precious metals or coffee futures may be a bargain that will pay off.
Commodities Can Diversify Portfolios
While some commodities can show a correlation with inflation, most exhibit very little correlation with traditional stocks and bonds. Modern portfolio theory (MPT) stipulates that by adding asset classes with low or negative correlations to the existing assets, an investor can keep the same expected return for their portfolio while reducing its risk, as measured by the portfolio's standard deviation. A rational investor would choose to minimize risk while maximizing expected return, and the low correlation of commodities and traditional assets helps achieve this.
Demographics: A Growing World Population Will Demand Resources
The global population is approaching 7.5 billion people, and those people will always need energy and food. Agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn and livestock might be a good investment at today's low prices. Energy production is increasingly turning to alternative, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, but fossil fuels will remain a cheaper option for most of the world for the foreseeable future. The rate of population growth is not slowing down, and barring a global disaster, it will begin to put a strain on natural resources and food stocks alike.
The Bottom Line
Commodity prices have not been this low in over a decade. Everything from oil to metals to food commodities have fallen in price as the global economy has struggled to emerge from the Great Recession, demand from Asia has begun to falter. At the same time, supplies have increased with better and lower-cost production processes.
Still, this may be a unique buying opportunity for investors to snap up commodities at bargain prices, as they offer benefits beyond simple price appreciation. Storable commodities can serve as a good hedge against inflation, and commodities can also serve to diversify portfolios to reduce risk without sacrificing expected return. It's extremely difficult to time any market, but these prices are approaching lows they haven't seen in years.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/3-reasons-invest-discounted-commodities.asp