Roger Wohlner
最近在每國股票市場波動中的一個常見新聞是中國經濟對我們的影響。雖然現在全球金融市場和經濟體互相交織不足為奇，但是中國龐大的規模和影響卻是一個特例。
下面是一些就金融顧問們詢問中國市場對他們客戶的影響的解釋。
龐大的規模
中國是即美國之後的世界第二大經濟體。它不僅僅和美國有貿易和業務關系，而且和全球許多國家和地區都有業務往來。
因為中國龐大人口規模、巨大消費市場和工業基礎，中國也是所有產品、服務和原材料銷售者的目的地。
美國公司在那裡進行業務
許多美國大公司在中國都有業務。這些公司的名單包括蘋果、大衆汽車、波音、 卡特彼勒、百勝等等。事實上，中國是美國之後的蘋果第二大市場而且百勝的肯德基品牌在那裡非常流行。根據高盛集團的數據該公司整體收益的52%來自中國。
近期中國匯率下調的決定給蘋果和百勝帶來重創，平均每天股價下跌5%。
像通用和福特這樣的汽車制造商會逐漸因貨幣貶值的影響感覺到消費者的減少。這將影響他們的全球銷售、盈利最終影響股票價格。通用汽車30%的銷售收入來自中國，任何形勢的放緩都會對他們產生巨大的影響。
卡特彼勒的CEO在今年早些時候已經預測在中國銷售額的下降。他們的股票價格自發行以來從52週的高點大約下跌了30%。該公司的銷售額在中國連續三年成兩位數的下跌。
中國不斷增長的中產階級曾經幫助許多消費品公司在那裡取得業績。任何經濟放緩的聲明都會影響利潤甚至股價。這和人民幣貶值一起使進口貨物價格更加昂貴。
全球影響
中國的增長不僅幫助美國公司發展，其影響是全球性的。當前中國經濟增長放緩使其對原材料和原油的需求下跌，這限制了全球大宗商品的價格。這對大幅依賴這一行業的公司和國家造成巨大傷害。
雖然美國沒有像世界其他國家那樣受到直接影響，但是一些美國公司還是受到影響，尤其是一些能源公司。例如，美孚的股價已經從52週的高點98美元下跌到現在的72美元。雪弗龍的股價從52週高點接近126美元下跌到現在75美元左右。
中國是許多國家產品和服務的最大買家。例如智利四分之三的出口到中國。出口總計占智利經濟的10%。雖然智利的經濟放緩可能不夠直接影響我們的股票市場，但是如果世界其他地方都受到中國經濟放緩影響那麼我們的經濟和股市最終也會有反映。
中國對股市下跌的反映
中國仍然是一個努力向西方開放股票市場的共產主義政府驅動經濟，當它覺得有必要的時候會有決心和資本幹預股市。例子：中國共產黨應對低迷的股市和經濟增長花費約2350億美元購買股票、提升價格、以及限制出售股票(如禁止賣空)。
因此，中國市場和他們經濟的風險可能對美國和其他國家在那裡有業務的也意味著相同的風險。中國當前的經濟增長放緩，相對封閉的金融市場和其他因素使我們股票市場的投資者感到恐懼並且是2015年夏末市場波動的主要原因。
對美國投資者的影響
在過去，美國投資者投資中國股票需要冒險。例如富達中國區的描述：“投資尋求長期資本增長。基金至少投資80%在香港、台灣和中國發行者的證券和其他和中國經濟緊密聯系的資產。”
正如上面談到的中國經濟對全球股票市場的影響，包括對我們的影響，是巨大的和深遠的。許多美國公司的大量銷售都依賴中國。許多美國公司在中國經營的規模巨大而且可能是指數的重要組成部分。他們的表現將影響美國投資者持有的共同基金和ETF。
總結
在全球經濟中，美國股票市場容易受到全球經濟事件的影響。中國作為全球第二大經濟體，對許多美國跨行業大公司來說都是一個巨大的市場。中國經濟任何形勢的放緩都將對這些的收益和利潤有巨大和深遠的影響，並最終影響每國股票市場。
Making an Impact: China and the U.S. Stock Market
By Roger Wohlner
A frequent financial headline surrounding the recent volatility in our stock market was the impact of China's economy on our own. While it should be no surprise that financial markets and economies around the globe are intertwined, China with its sheer size and impact is a special case.
Here are a few thoughts for financial advisors as they seek to explain China’s impact on our stock market to their clients.
Sheer Size
China is the world’s second largest economy behind the United States. Not only do they have trading and business relationships with the U.S. but operate on a global scale in many economies and countries.
China is also a major market for anyone selling goods, services and raw materials as it has the world's largest population and an extremely large consumer and industrial base.
U.S. Companies Doing Business There
Many major U.S. companies are doing business with or in China. The list of major corporations includes Apple Inc. (AAPL), General Motors Co. (GM), Boeing Co. (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) and many more. In fact, China is Apple's second largest market after the U.S. and Yum!'s KFC brand is very popular there. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) the company derives 52% of its overall revenue from China.
A recent decision by China to devalue its currency hit both Apple and Yum! Brands hard with one day drops in their stock price of about 5% each.
Auto makers like GM and Ford Motor Co. (F) will feel any slowdown in consumer spending and the impact of the currency devaluation in their sales. This could impact their worldwide sales, their profitability and ultimately their stock price. About 30% of GM’s sales come from China so any slowdown would have a major impact on their bottom line.
Caterpillar’s CEO had already forecast a sales decline in China earlier in the year. Their stock is down some 30% from its 52-week high as of publication. The company’s sales in China are down by double digits for the third straight year.
China’s rising middle class has helped many consumer products companies build sales there. Any pronounced slowdown will hurt profit and likely impact stock price. This and the devaluation of the Chinese currency makes imported goods more expensive for Chinese consumers. Some other examples of consumer products companies dependent upon China and the region for a high percentage of their sales include:
•LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton ADR (LVMUY) earns 25% of its revenue from China and other parts of Asia excluding Japan.
•Burberry Group PLC (BURBY) earns 30% of its sales from the region.
•Prada SpA ADR (PRDSY) earns 20% of its sales in the China region.
Global Impact
China’s growth has not only helped U.S. companies prosper but also many in Europe, elsewhere in Asia and Australia and elsewhere. The current slowdown has dampened China’s demand for raw materials and oil which has served to depress commodity prices worldwide. This has hurt companies and nations who depend on this business for a significant portion of their economy.
Though the U.S. is not as directly impacted as others around the world, some U.S companies have felt the pain, especially those in the energy sector. For example Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has seen its stock price fall from its 52-week high of about $98 to about $72 as of the time of this writing. Likewise the stock of Chevron (CVX) fallen from its 52-week high of just under $126 to its current price of around $75.
For many countries China is the largest buyer of their goods and services. For example almost a quarter of Chile’s exports go to China. Exports account for about 10% of Chile’s economy about double that of the United Sates. While a slowdown in Chile may not directly impact our stock market if enough of the rest of the world feels the impact of a China slowdown the impact will eventually be felt by our economy and our stock market.
China's Reaction to Falling Stocks
China is still a state-run communist country that is struggling to open its stock market to the west and has the will and checkbook to intervene when it feels it's necessary. Case in point: The Communist Party's response to flagging stocks and growth — to spend some $235 billion to buy shares and bolster prices, as well as impose limits on the sale of stocks (such as a ban on shorting) — was a swift and powerful response worthy of political and social unrest, much less the market's natural response to prevailing conditions.
Therefore, the risks within China’s markets and their economy may carry parallel risk for U.S. and other western firms doing business there. China’s current economic slowdown, their less than open financial markets, and other factors are sending chills to investors in our stock markets and are a major contributing factor in the market volatility we’ve seen during the late summer of 2015.
Implications for U.S. Investors
In the past, a U.S. investor might take a flyer on a fund that invested in Chinese stocks. For example the description of Fidelity China Region (FHKAX) reads:“The investment seeks long-term growth of capital. The fund normally invests at least 80% of assets in securities of Hong Kong, Taiwanese, and Chinese issuers and other investments that are tied economically to the China region.”
As discussed above the impact of China's economy upon the world’s stock markets, including ours, is vast and as we’ve seen over the past few weeks profound. More U.S. companies depend upon China for a significant amount of their sales. Also, many of the U.S. companies operating in China are large and may be significant components in indexes such as the S&P 500. The performance of their stock can impact mutual funds and ETFs held by U.S. investors.
The Bottom Line
In a global economy, the U.S. stock markets are susceptible to world economic events. China, as the world’s second largest economy, is a huge market for many large U.S. companies across a variety of industries. Any slowdown in China’s economy that has a significant and widespread impact on the revenue and profit of these companies will have an impact on our stock market.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/professionals/092215/making-impact-china-and-us-stock-market.asp