全球化要結束了嗎？

全球化是近幾年的發展常態，但是在當前的形式下，全球化還能持續多久？瑞士信貸研究中心(CSRI)的報告指出，連通的世界，未來只會有三種結果。 

最戲劇性的（可能性最低的）結果是當前形勢發生大逆轉，全球化被民族主義取代。這種情況曾經發生過。那時工業革命引領了全球化的潮流，歐洲出口激增，有超過六千萬歐洲人移民到北美洲，因此美國和歐洲開始採取限制性貿易關稅，民族主義由此開始。 

但這種情形會再次上演嗎？CSRI指出了全球化面臨的幾大威脅。中央政府債務增加，收入不平衡，移民過多等因素，都會使得經濟增長進一步放緩。此外，貿易保護主義，軍費開支增加，民主治理愈行愈遠也會給全球化帶來威脅。 

某些因素帶來的威脅會進一步增加。自2005年起，進口配額、補貼、國際制裁等非關稅貿易壁壘越來越多，而發展中國家和發達國家都出現了財富分配不平均、債台高築等情況。在中國和大多數中東國家，民主是不存在的，他們只是給獨裁政府披上了民主管理的外衣，而這種情況在俄羅斯和一些非洲國家也逐漸盛行。 

另一種結果：全球化繼續進行，美國仍為獨一無二的金融、軍事霸主。瑞士信貸調查表明，美國證券市場對國際市場的影響更甚於國際匯兌對道瓊斯指數和標普指數的影響，而美元仍是最重要的儲備貨幣，占已知儲備貨幣總量的62%。美國的軍費開支比排名其後的九個國家的軍費總和還要多，CSRI由此得出結論，未來將有更多的國際貿易，更強大的跨國企業，更開明的移民政策，而民主主義和互聯網經濟也將繼續擴張。 

最優可能的結果是：全球化既不會無限擴張也不會土崩瓦解。CSRI認為這個世界將愈加多極化、區域化。泛太平洋夥伴關系協定和跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴協定等區域性貿易協定漸漸走紅，而全球貿易談判卻停滞不前。中國在2014年建立了亞洲基礎設施投資銀行，直接挑戰世界銀行的霸主地位，而中國電子商務公司阿裡巴巴在2015年1月成功完成了有史以來最大規模的首次公開招募，向世界宣告西方企業不會永遠占據主導地位。歐洲央行為了穩定債務危機而進行的幹涉，也會影響全球金融市場的穩定性，使得全球經濟和金融力量逐漸分散。

總的來說，世界金融中心將有三個，分別為亞洲、歐洲、美國，CSRI認為未來會出現更多亞洲基礎設施投資銀行這類的地區性機構和更多的移民入國限制。研究機構認為，貿易壁壘也會增加，因此會有越來越多的企業關註於地區和國内市場，而不是全球市場。而世界各國不會完全關上大門，他們的大門只會留給親近的鄰居。

The End of Globalization?

By: Ashley Kindergan

Published: October 5, 2015

Globalization has been a fact of life for decades, but how long will it continue in its current form? A new report from the Credit Suisse Research Institute (CSRI) considers three potential futures for our increasingly interconnected world.   

The most dramatic (and unlikely) outcome is an outright reversal of current trends, with globalization trumped by nationalism. It’s happened before. It wasn’t that long after the Industrial Revolution ushered in a long wave of globalization in which European exports surged and more than 60 million Europeans migrated to North America that the U.S. and Europe began implementing restrictive tariffs on trade, and nationalism took hold. World War I ended a 44-year era of globalization.   

But could it happen again? The CSRI compiled a scorecard of the most serious threats to globalization. Slowing economic growth, augmented by rising levels of central government debt, income inequality, and high levels of immigration, are important stressors. Others include trade protectionism, an increase in military spending, and a move away from democratic governance.   

Some of these risks are indeed rising. The prevalence of non-tariff barriers to trade, such as import quotas, subsidies, and sanctions, has been increasing since 2005, while rising wealth inequality and high debt levels can be found in the developing and developed world alike. Democracy is nonexistent in China and much of the Middle East, while so-called managed democracies, which are authoritarian governments in all but name, are becoming entrenched in some African countries and Russia.   

Another alternative: Globalization continues to expand much as it has since the 1990s, with the United States remaining as the world’s lone financial and military superpower. Credit Suisse research shows that the U.S. stock market influences international markets more than activity on foreign exchanges influences the Dow and the S&P, and the dollar is far and away the world’s most important reserve currency, with 62 percent of known reserves held in dollars. Finally, U.S. military spending is larger than that of the next nine highest-spending countries combined. In this scenario, the CSRI says we can expect to see more international trade, more powerful multinational (and mostly Western) corporations, the continued spread of democracy and the Internet economy, and more open immigration policies.   

The most likely outcome: Neither a relatively unchecked expansion of globalization nor its collapse. Instead, the CSRI believes that the world is becoming more multipolar and more regionally focused. Regional trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are in vogue, while global trade talks have largely stalled. China established the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2014 as a direct challenge to the World Bank’s hegemony, and the fact that Chinese e-commerce outfit Alibaba successfully completed the largest-ever initial public offering in January 2015 made it clear that western corporations need not dominate forever. Even the European Central Bank’s interventions to stabilize a debt crisis that threatened global financial markets show that the balance of global economic and financial power is becoming more diffuse.   

Ultimately, the CSRI expects to see three major centers of world power in Asia, Europe, and the U.S., more regional institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and immigration restrictions that lead to an increase in regional migration. The Research Institute also foresees more barriers to trade, and as a result, more companies focused on regional and domestic markets than global ones. While the nations of the world aren’t closing their doors to one another completely, they increasingly prefer letting only close neighbors in. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/the-end-of-globalization/#sthash.Hj0ENZdm.dpuf