Tim Parker 2012年11月6日
原油價格繼續下跌。分析師和行業專家給出了自己的觀點。然而歷史告訴我們那些無人知曉的事情。每個人都在做出自己最好的猜測，但是只是理論而且很難證實。
在9月14日，原油價格以94.94美元的高點收盤，使市場分析人士認為能達到100美元。而美國政客擔心上升的原油價格會阻礙經濟增長。
在當天，路透社報道原油價格的上升是因為外匯市場活動和對美國第三季度財報的反應。
飓風桑迪
飓風桑迪在10月29日（週一）登陸。從週一登錄之前到週原油價格下跌1%,桑迪也給其他大宗商品帶來壓力導致供應和配送中斷。報道石油和天然氣供應出現2小時中斷，分析人士預計石油和天然氣價格將大幅上升。
因為每天處理超過30萬桶原油的兩個東北部煉油廠的關閉，和其他煉油廠產量的減少，原油的供應量下降。然而需求比供應高。隨著煉油廠的修理和需求回歸正常，價格應該恢複穩定。
技術盤整
石油交易員由於世界銀行的政策驅動油價上升。然而就像一些人預測的那樣，興奮期已經結束。當交易員意識到幹預性政策其實實施很少，他們將重新考慮前景。根據 ITG投資研究所的理論，希望破滅時價格將會下跌。
然而那之後原油價格繼續下降，截至到10月31日，下跌到86.23美元，比9月的最高點下降約13%。為什麼原油價格能在這麼短的時間内下跌如此劇烈？
9月17日，油價在一分鐘内下跌超過3美元，一些人將這描述成閃電崩盤。
供應過剩
原油不僅僅是因為供應過剩，而且需求不足。全球經濟都處在泥潭中。當經濟下降，汽油、柴油和航空燃料的需求也隨著下降。人們減少旅行，航船減少而且人們減少開車以省錢。
中東
中東局勢緊張通常是原油市場波動的原因。去年夏天局勢的緊張增加了對供應不足的擔心，導致油價上升。當那些局勢被證實不會惡化中東將繼續保持平靜，交易員可能進行對手中的大宗商品進行對沖。
總結
盡管原油價格上升和下降的理論很多。能源交易員知道大宗商品市場的波動是正常的。觀看長期圖表，我們就好發現原油價格在2008年上升到146美元，之後劇烈下跌。原油市場是全球市場，有時石油價格上升或下降的原因並不明顯清晰。
Why The Price Of Crude Oil Is Dropping
By Tim Parker | November 06, 2012
Oil continues to fall. Analysts and industry experts have their opinions about why. History, however, tells us that sometimes nobody really knows. Everyone is making his or her best educated guess but, in the end, it is all theory and difficult to quantify.
On Sept. 14, crude oil closed at a high of $98.94, leading market analysts to believe that it was poised to reach the $100 mark. At the time, economists, as well as Washington politicians in the midst of an election year, worried that higher prices would put a damper on economic growth as prices at the pump would continue to rise.
On that day, Reuters reported that rising crude prices were the result of actions in the currency market as well as reaction to the federal government's announcement of QE3.
Since that time, however, oil has retreated. As of Oct. 31, it was down to $86.23, a nearly 13% decline since the September highs. Why has oil dropped so dramatically in such a short period?
Superstorm Sandy
Superstorm Sandy made landfall on Monday, Oct. 29. From the Friday before landfall to the Friday after, the spot price of oil dropped just over 1%. Sandy has only served to place additional pressure on the commodity causing supply and distribution disruptions. While reports of two-hour waits for gasoline amid short supply flood the media, some analysts expected a sharp rise in both oil and gas prices.
Because two refineries in the northeast, responsible for processing more than 300,000 barrels of oil per day, are shut down, and others are operating at reduced capacity, the supply of oil was decreased. Demand, however, was affected more than supply. As repair to the infrastructure takes place and consumption returns to normal, prices should stabilize.
Technical Correction
Oil traders, anticipating intervention by the world's banks to stimulate economic growth, drove the price of oil up. As some anticipated, however, the euphoria has to end sometime. When traders realize that intervention has done little so far, they rethink their outlook. ITG Investment Research theorizes that the stimulus hope bubble burst, sending prices plummeting.
On Sept. 17, oil dropped more than $3 in less than a minute, leading some to describe the fall as something similar to a flash crash. Experts disagree about the reason such an irregular drop took place but some blame algorithmic trading for the fall. Other theories include a fat-fingered trader and pending expiration of the October contract.
Too Much Supply
When it comes to oil, not only is there too much supply, there is not enough demand. World economies are struggling. When the economy slows down, so does the demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. People travel less, companies ship less and consumers curtail their driving habits to save money.
The Middle East
Tension in the Middle East often takes the blame for oil market volatility. Rising tensions in the late summer months created fears of supply shortages, causing prices to rise. As those tensions proved to be mostly unfounded and the Middle East remained relatively quiet, traders may have covered their commodity hedges.
The Bottom Line
Theories abound about why the oil market rises and falls. Energy traders know that commodities markets are volatile by nature. To look at a long-term chart of oil, investors find rises to $146 a barrel in 2008, which then fell sharply soon after. The oil market is a worldwide market and sometimes the cause of a rise or fall in price has no clear, discernible, single reason.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1112/why-the-price-of-crude-oil-is-dropping.aspx