Evan Tarver 2015年10月15日
加拿大經濟自2015年出現下降趨勢以來陷入了危機。現在一加元大約兌換75美分，而且大型機構投資者已經停止投資加拿大以能源為重點的股票市場，而是投資其他地區的能源、基本金屬、黃金和木材。
加拿大經濟在2015年的糟糕表現使多倫多的基準S&P / TSX綜合指數下跌了大概11%。在同時，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌2.3%，標準普爾500指數持平而納斯達克綜合指數上升了7.4%。
然而，買入的最好時機通常是別人都在其他地方投資的時候，現在可能是投資加拿大股票市場的好時機。加拿大已經出現了下半年反彈的趨勢，這也可能引起其他投資者的註意。
投資加拿大非能源股票
所有投資者都離開大宗商品和加拿大市場，這對加拿大大宗商品豐富的經濟來說是個雙重打擊。大宗商品糟糕的表現反映出中國經濟的放緩，加拿大重新把關註點從工廠出口放到國内商品和服務的消費上。這一轉變損害了國際大宗商品需求。
這給加拿大經濟帶來間接傷害。許多大型公司受到加拿大宏觀對大宗商品依賴的傷害，導致人們恐慌地賣出他們持有的股票。這使賣空降低表現良好公司的股票價格並且為那些尋求在未來三五年實現資本盈利的投資者提供了一個良好的入場點。
加拿大經濟將反彈
得益於美元的強勢，加拿大的整體經濟未來將增長。許多人相信加拿大股票市場將在2015年第三季度回歸正軌並且現在逐漸跟隨美國經濟增長的腳步。
然而重要的是投資僅僅是非能源相關股票。這一類型公司包括埃德蒙頓的公司，如 Stantec、加拿大西部銀行、AutoCanada和Home Capital。
加拿大2015年8月的GDP增長好於預期。世界經濟論壇把加拿大的銀行連續八年評為世界上最安全的銀行。據預測加拿大經濟將繼續在十月處於低谷並且在十一月和十二月反彈。
近期的不佳表現預期將在2015年結束，由於加拿大經濟的低迷和對原油價格崩盤的擔憂將使房產市場成為新貴。加拿大股票的賣空自今年夏天開始穩定增長，現在處於自2014年夏天以來的最高水平。
加拿大經濟指標在2015年下半年持續超出預期。對於能源闆塊的恐慌也已經基本平息，許多分析人士認為油價低迷的時間已經過長，並且將會突然上升。
讓我們來看一下加拿大的金融闆塊，這是人們回歸市場時首先反彈的闆塊。這些優質股票被預測在今年之前將引領多倫多證交所的反彈。
不動產投資信托公司是另一個能引領多倫多證交所反彈的闆塊。這些公司的估值今年持續下降且遠低於歷史平均值，這提供了一個很好的入場點。
然而，據預測標準普爾500的表現在很長的一段時間仍將好於多倫多證交所。投資者不應過分看好加拿大股票。
Is Now the Right Time to Buy Canadian Stocks?
By Evan Tarver | October 15, 2015
The Canadian economy has struggled to emerge from the country's 2015 downturn. The loonie is currently sitting around 75 U.S. cents, and large institutional investors have stopped investing in Canada's resource-heavy stock market, looking elsewhere for investments in energy, base metals, gold and lumber.
Canada's economic performance in 2015 has caused Toronto's benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index to decline by roughly 11%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down just 2.3%, the S&P 500 Index is flat and the NASDAQ Composite Index is up 7.4% over the same period.
However, the best time to buy is normally when people are investing elsewhere, and it may be time to invest in the Canadian stock market. Canada is beginning to show signs of a second-half rebound, and it's possible to get in before other investors notice.
Investing in Non-Resource Canadian Stocks
Top-down investors are moving away from commodities and Canada; with Canada's commodity-rich economy, this hurts twice as bad. The poor performance of commodities reflects the slowdown of the Chinese economy as it refocuses itself from factory exports to the domestic consumption of goods and services. This transition has hurt global demand for commodities.
This has led to collateral damage in Canada's economy. There are numerous situations where strong companies are hurt by Canada's macro dependence on commodities and resources, causing people to panic and get out of positions they shouldn't. These sell-offs lower the price of otherwise good companies and provide a good entry point for investors looking to realize capital gains in the next three to five years.
It's important, however, to invest only in non-resource-related stocks. Examples of these types of stock include Edmonton-based firms, such as Stantec, Canadian Western Bank, AutoCanada, and Home Capital, a Toronto-based mortgage lender.
The Canadian Economy Is Poised to Rebound
The overall Canadian economy should see some future growth, benefiting from the strong U.S. dollar. Many believe that the Canadian stock market corrected itself in the third quarter of 2015 and that it should now be increasingly correlated with the rising U.S. economy.
Canada reported better than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in August 2015. The World Economic Forum ranked Canada's banks as the world's safest for the eighth year in a row. It's expected that Canada will continue to bottom out through October and bounce back in November and December.
The recent underperformance, expected to end in 2015, has been due to Canada's slumping economy and fears over what crashing oil prices will do to the country's upstart housing market. Short interest in Canadian stocks has been increasing steadily this year and is now at its highest level since the summer of 2014.
Canada's economic indicators are consistently beating expectations in the second half of 2015. Much of the panic over the energy sector has also subsided, with most analysts now seeing oil prices as "low for longer," which is a view that benefits energy companies if oil prices surprise to the upside.
Start looking at the Canadian financial sector, which is the first sector to bounce back when people come back to the market. These quality stocks and stocks in the defense trade are expected to lead to a rally of the TSX prior to the end of the year.
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) is another space that could help lead to a rally of the TSX. Valuations have steadily declined this year and are firmly below historical averages, providing a good entry point.
However, it's still expected that the S&P 500 will continue to beat the TSX in the long term. Investors should not be overly bullish on Canadian stocks.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/101515/now-right-time-buy-canadian-stocks.asp