房地產終將複蘇

房地產闆塊成為了引領美國走出經濟困局的主力。美聯儲主席為了走出金融危機放寬了貨幣政策，加之房貸需求的增加，房地產市場將會對利率產生極大的影響。在2007-2008年的金融危機之後，房地產市場所扮演的角色已經發生了轉變。事實上，住宅市場的增長比最保守的預期還要差。在金融危機之後的很多年裡，即使利率接近於零，也無法改變房地產市場給美國經濟拖後腿的狀況。但是這種情況正在發生變化。 

房地產市場複蘇如此之慢主要歸咎於引發金融危機的房地產泡沫。在21世紀00年代中期，很多人買不起房子只好去貸款，而寬松的監管政策和極易申請的貸款導致房價不斷攀升，這便刺激了一波又一波的投機者，他們買房不是為了居住，而是為了轉手賣掉賺差價。

隨著房地產泡沫逐漸膨脹，住房投資比例已經超過了1947年以來的平均水平4.7%，在2005年已達到GDP的6.6%。隨後泡沫破裂，該比例在2010年降至GDP的2.4%。在2015年，其數值為3.3%，仍低於歷史水平。

而這阻礙複蘇的最大障礙也開始有所好轉，瑞士信貸經濟學家Dana Saporta和Xiao Cui在最近的報告中指出：“房地產阻力終於減少了”。阻力有三重：低房價、資不抵債型房貸及信用標準。首先，房價自2011年的低點已上漲了20%。就資不抵債型房貸而言，負資產人群已從2012年末的22%下降至2015年初的10%。房屋短售及止贖房屋銷售等“困境”銷售的比例已從2010-2011年的30%下降至六月的10%。 

五月的數據進一步證實了房地產闆塊的複蘇。現房的年化銷售額為535萬，較四月增加了5.1%，是2009年以來漲幅最大的一次。其中首次購房者的比例是2012年9月以來的最高值，較4月上漲了30%。不斷改善的就業市場起到了至關重要的作用，工作崗位的增加意味著更多人，尤其是更多年輕人有錢買房了。 

按揭貸款的標準依舊十分嚴格，但信用供給量卻有明顯提高。這使得聯邦住房管理局在一月降低了抵押貸款的保費，房利美、房地美等政府機構也將政府貸款的首付降至3%。Saporta和Cui表示，房地產同整體經濟活動之間的關系想要恢複“正常”仍需要幾年的時間，但至少在向著正確的方向轉變。

Finally, Housing Recovers

The way things used to work, the housing sector was typically the one to lead the United States out of economic hard times. That’s because central bankers tend to loosen monetary policy coming out of a recession, and mortgage demand – and thus, the health of the housing market – is particularly sensitive to interest rates. But the sector didn’t play its usual role after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. In fact, it has grown more slowly than even the most conservative expectations. For many of the post-crisis years, even with interest rates pinned at zero, housing has actually been a drag on the U.S. economy. But all that is starting to change.

The long wait for a true recovery in the housing market owes much to the nature of the housing bubble that led to the crisis. In the mid-2000s, individuals who couldn’t afford to purchase a home were able to do so anyway due to a combination of lax regulation and easily accessible credit. As a result, home prices climbed at a dizzying pace, spurring wave after wave of speculation in which ordinary people bought homes not to live in, but to flip for a hefty profit.

As the housing bubble inflated, residential investment’s share of the overall economy greatly surpassed its post-1947 average of 4.7 percent, rising to a high of 6.6 percent of GDP in 2005. And then it dive-bombed, to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2010. In 2015, it’s still well below historical levels at 3.3 percent. When the bubble burst, household wealth took an enormous hit, as many Americans had a great deal of their total net worth tied up in residential real estate. Former Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin put it this way: the recession “was worse and the recovery has been weaker” because of “how hard lower- and middle-income households were hit” by the housing crisis.

Nevertheless, the biggest impediments to recovery are finally changing for the better, write Credit Suisse economistsDana Saporta and Xiao Cuiin a recent report entitled, “Housing Headwinds Diminishing at Last.” The headwinds are threefold: low home prices, underwater mortgages and credit standards. As for the first, prices have finally been increasing and are up 20 percent from their 2011 lows. As far as underwater mortgages are concerned, the proportion of properties with negative equity fell from some 22 percent in late 2012 to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2015. The percentage of so-called “distressed” sales, which includes both short sales and bank sales of foreclosed homes, has also decreased significantly, from above 30 percent of total home sales throughout 2010 and 2011 to 10 percent in June.

The month of May provided further evidence that the sector is finally on the mend. Existing home sales rose 5.1 percent to an annualized pace of 5.35 million, the strongest pace since November 2009 and well above the consensus call for 5.26 million homes. Notably, the share of first-time homebuyers was the highest since September 2012, rising to 32 percent from 30 percent in April. The improving labor market played an important role – more jobs mean that more people, particularly young people, have the cash to buy homes.

Mortgage lending standards remain tight, but the supply of credit appears to be growing. It helps that the Federal Housing Administration lowered its mortgage insurance premiums in January and government entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reintroduced a 3 percent down payment for government-backed loans. Saporta and Cui say it will take several more years for the relationship between housing and overall economic activity to return to what economists describe as “normal,” but things are heading slowly and steadily in that direction. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/finally-housing-recovers/#sthash.T5oUsWGE.dpuf