該從分紅策略上轉移註意力了

近15年來表現最佳的投資策略就是購買防禦性股票，尤其是購買必需消費品、醫療保健、公共事業等高分紅版塊的股票，然後坐等收益。因為這些版塊的股票不僅波動性較小，而且在利率持續走低的情況下吸引了越來越多的投資者。但全球某些國家的利率已經出現回升的勢頭，於是瑞士信貸的私人銀行和財富管理部門(PBWM)的Marc Häfliger, Michael O’Sullivan和Robert Cronin開始研究防禦性策略在當前的環境下還能否站得住腳。答案因地而異。對於歐洲投資者來說，防禦性股票仍是賺取股息的最佳選擇。但是對於美國和英國的投資者來說，兩國的經濟複蘇程度更高、更有可能採取緊縮貨幣政策，因此投資者最好轉投週期性股票。 

1981年，聯邦匯率達到20%，英國官方銀行利率達到15%，隨後利率便開始持續下降。隨著國債收益的逐步減少，逐利的投資者逐漸把目光轉向分紅股票。轉向分紅股票的另一原因是他們害怕了，因為在15年中已經出現了兩個大熊市。在2007年互聯網泡沫崩潰時，全球股票下跌了48.8%，而在2008年金融危機期間更是暴跌了57.5%。如此大規模的損失使得投資者對商業週期過緊的公司充滿了恐懼。 

問題解決了一個，還有另一個亟待解決。在2015年，上述的任何一種方式都失效了。在匯率逐步增長的環境中，防禦性股票表現欠佳。美聯儲和英格蘭銀行計劃在未來的六個月中提高基準利率，這將縮小債券和分紅股票之間的差距。此外，在最近的三年中，防禦性股票的估值越來越高，而週期性股票的估值則逐漸下降，這種情況在美國最為明顯。 

再來看看歐洲，央行可能在2016年繼續採取量化寬松政策，這還能提供些許助力。歐元區的股票分紅收益和主權債券收益之間的差額約為3%，而美國則為0.4%。在估值方面，高分紅股票的上市溢價是2012年以來的最低值。最近投資者正將資金投入到更廣闊的市場中，如果利率持續走低，他們將繼續這樣做。 

簡而言之，美國和英國的分紅投資者要三思，瑞士信貸PBWM部門認為走出防禦性闆塊，多考察週期性股票的時候到了。而對歐洲的投資者來說，維持現狀就可以了。

Time to Shift Dividend Strategies 

It should surprise no one that one of the best performing investment strategies over the past 15 years has been to play defense, specifically by buying high-dividend paying stocks in sectors like consumer staples, health care, and utilities. Not only have those stocks proven less volatile than the broader market, they have drawn increasing investor interest as interest rates have remained stubbornly low. But as rates look set to increase at least in some parts of the world,Marc Häfliger, Michael O’Sullivan, and Robert Croninof Credit Suisse’s Private Banking & Wealth Management division (PBWM) decided to investigate whether the strategy still holds promise today. The answer: It depends where you’re talking about. For European investors, defensive equities are still the best way to gain dividend exposure. But in the U.S. and U.K., where economic recoveries are more advanced and monetary policy is due to tighten sooner rather than later, investors are better off switching into dividend-paying cyclical stocks.

It’s been a good run, that’s for sure. In both the U.S. and U.K., interest rates have decreased gradually and significantly since 1981, when the Fed Funds rate briefly hit 20 percent in the United States and the official bank rate topped 15 percent in the U.K. As government bond yields slowly declined, income-seeking investors increasingly turned to dividend stocks. They also sought them because of fear, the kind that arises as a result of two significant bear markets in just 15 years. Global equities fell 48.8 percent in the dot-com crash of the early 2000s and 57.5 percent in 2008. Losses of that magnitude create consternation about companies yoked too tightly to the business cycle. 

Solve one problem, though, and you’ve got another—and in 2015, neither of the above solutions seems so workable anymore. For one, defensive equities tend to underperform in a rising rate environment. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are poised to raise benchmark interest rates in the next six months, which will reduce the yield differential between bonds and dividend stocks. What’s more, that flight to safety has made safety expensive. In the U.S., in particular, valuations for defensive stocks have risen in each of the last three years, while those of cyclical stocks have fallen. 

The environment in Europe, where the central bank is likely to continue its quantitative easing program well into 2016, is much more supportive. The difference between dividend yields and sovereign bond yields there is 3 percent, compared to 0.4 percent in the U.S. On the valuation front, the premium of high-dividend stocks to the broader market is at its lowest level since 2012. Investors have recently been funneling money into high-dividend European equities funds at twice the rate they have into broader market funds, and they should continue to do so as long as rates remain low. 

In short, the dividend-seeking investor in the U.S. or U.K. needs to rethink their approach, and Credit Suisse’s PBWM thinks it’s time to move out of defensive sectors and into more cyclical ones. But in Europe, they can stick to the status quo. 

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

本文來源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/time-to-shift-dividend-strategies/#sthash.GOFAPdXB.dpuf