俄羅斯經濟复蘇的三個迹象

Evan Tarver  2015年10月22日

在過去18個月中原油和其他俄羅斯經濟主要驅動產品的價格大幅下跌。同時，美國因烏克蘭問題對俄羅斯進行了制裁。因此，俄羅斯盧佈的價值大幅下跌，國內資本也向國外流失。似乎這個國家的經濟正在持續惡化。

然而，與預期相反，俄羅斯的經濟已經開始复蘇。隨著國內企業表現的好轉、進口價格的上升和盧佈價值的下跌俄羅斯經濟已經開始回暖。

國內企業的表現

俄羅斯的股票市場是今年表現最好的股票市場之一。根據報告，在最近這個季度大約78%的俄羅斯公司在MICEX的收益要比國際同行好的多。俄羅斯公司的效益也整體上比MSCI新興市場指數好的多。

例如，俄羅斯鋼鐵公司Severstal創下了六年來利潤新高。2015年4月，該公司與俄羅斯尼桑工廠簽訂了鋼鐵供應合同，這將有望增加俄羅斯對曾經前蘇聯成員、美洲和中東的出口。

經濟學家曾預測原油價格每下跌10%就會減少俄羅斯2%的GDP。然而，俄羅斯的GDP在油價持續下跌18個月之後有望達到年增長3.5%。

盧佈貶值的說明

GDP歷史性的連續18月的下降導致俄羅斯盧佈對美元幾乎貶值了一半。油價由於沙特阿拉伯決定採集創紀錄數量的石油之後進一步下跌，這將阻礙盧佈短期內回升。

像Severstal這樣出口鋼材大約30%的公司，將會在原油價格下跌中受益。俄羅斯生產鋼材的所有成本都由盧佈定價。俄羅斯公司相對其國際競爭對手的成本大幅下降。另一方面，俄羅斯公司出口的鋼材都是由歐元和美元定價的，這將進一步增加二者兌盧佈的價值。當公司以外國貨幣獲利，就可以通過有利的利率購買更多的盧佈。

這一優勢也適用於能源闆塊。俄羅斯向使用美元和歐元的國家出口大量的石油和天然氣。這也是為什麼俄羅斯跨國石油生產商 Rosneft在去年收入增加18%的原因，而且國際競爭者的收入增加還不到1%。

這是為什麼俄羅斯的稅收沒有下降的原因，緩解了一些經濟困難。俄羅斯的石油出口還幾乎處於歷史最高點，但是這同時也引起石油價格繼續走低。

進口價格的上升

盧佈除了說明出口公司，同時也增加了俄羅斯進口的價格。這在用國內產品代替進口產品時使經濟受益。這將有助俄羅斯GDP的增長。

在1998年發生過類似的复蘇，當亞洲金融危機蔓延到俄羅斯的時候，俄羅斯在償還國際債務時違約導致盧佈價值巨大下跌。這產生了一個對經濟的直接負面影響，之後發生的進口代替复蘇使大多數經濟學家難以置信。在當前環境下也會發生同樣的事。

3 Signs the Russian Economy Is Recovering 

By Evan Tarver | October 22, 2015 

The price of oil, and the main driver of Russia's economy, has declined significantly over the past 18 months. At the same time, the United States imposed sanctions on Russia in the wake of its annexation of Crimea in Ukraine. In response, Russia's ruble decreased in value, and capital began to leave the country as citizens placed their money abroad. It seemed as if the country's economy was spiraling downward.

However, against expectations, Russia's economy is starting to recover. With an increase in the performance of domestic companies, rising prices for imports and a devaluation of the ruble, Russia's economy has kickstarted itself.

Performance of Domestic Companies

The Russian stock market is one of the best-performing markets this year. According to reports, roughly 78% of Russian companies on the MICEX index have shown more revenue growth in the most recent quarter than their global peers. Russian companies are also now more profitable overall than the companies on the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

For example, Russian steelmaker Severstal recorded its highest profit margins in six years on high output. In April 2015, the company signed a contract to supply steel to the Renault-Nissan auto plant, which is expected to increase exports from Russia to the former Soviet republics, Africa and the Middle East.

Economists have been forecasting that every $10 decline in the price of crude oil reduced Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) by roughly 2%. However, Russia's GDP, after declining for close to 18 months, is expected to grow at roughly 3.5% per year, even without increases in oil prices.

Devaluation of the Ruble Aids Performance

The historic decrease in GDP over the past 18 months has caused Russia's currency to lose nearly half its value against the U.S. dollar. Further declines in oil prices, which may be imminent due to Saudi Arabia's decision to pump record amounts of crude oil, will stop the ruble from recovering in the short-term.

For companies such as Severstal, which exports roughly 30% of its steel, the devaluation is beneficial. All of the costs that go into producing Russian steel are priced in rubles. Russian company costs relative to their international competitors' costs have decreased significantly. On the other side, any steel that Russian companies export abroad is priced in U.S. dollars or euros, both of which have strengthened in value against the ruble. When the company earns its revenue in foreign currency, it can effectively buy more rubles through the favorable exchange rates.

This benefit also applies to the country's energy sector. Russia exports huge amounts of oil and gas to nations that use the dollar or the euro. That's partially why Rosneft, a multinational oil producer in Russia, reported a revenue increase of 18% last year, compared to an increase of less than 1% for its international competitors.

This performance is a big reason why Russia's tax revenue has not declined, mitigating more pain for the country's economy. Russia's oil output is still near record highs, however, which has caused oil prices to remain weak.

Rising Prices for Imports

In addition to the ruble helping company performance, it also increases the price of imports for Russia. This provides economic benefits in the form of domestic import substitutions that consumers purchase in lieu of the higher-priced important goods options. This allows Russians to save more, and it helps the economy increase its GDP.

A similar recovery happened in 1998, when the Asian financial crisis spread to Russia; the country defaulted on its international debt and subsequently devalued the ruble. There was an immediate negative economic response, followed by an import substitution recovery that was more successful than most economists believed. The same should happen in the current environment.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102215/3-signs-russian-economy-recovering.asp