James Garrett Baldwin 2015年10月20日
2015年，原油價格隨著產量的增加和對全球經濟的擔憂劇烈下跌。價格從2014年6月開始下跌了一半，到達了即使2009年大蕭條也沒達到的水平。美國能源信息管理局預測2020年原油價格將會徘徊在70美元左右。而石油高管預測，更長時間後價格能回到90或者100美元範圍。
在美國，有超過10萬名工人因為公司削減預算重新評估當前價格下的產量失去工作。但是美國由於經濟多樣化並沒有因油價下跌受到劇烈影響。
與此同時，一些國家和其貨幣正受到油價下跌的巨大壓力。一種貨幣受石油價格上升或者下降影響劇烈的貨幣被稱為石油貨幣。簡單來說，石油貨幣是產油國的貨幣，例如俄羅斯和加拿大，石油出口占其大量的出口份額。因為出口份額巨大，這些貨幣將會隨著油價升降。
本文列出了五種受油價影響巨大的貨幣。
加元
2015年9月，加拿大央行行長Stephen Poloz預測將會在多年因油價而低迷中反彈。然而，其貨幣弱勢情況能改變嗎？
在全球範圍内，加元日益被視為石油貨幣。在8月，加元因全球油價下跌而達到11年的最低點。該國是全球第五大石油生產國，石油出口占其總出口的14%。油價和CAD/USD貨幣對之間存在強烈的關系。
從2014年6月到2015年9月，加元貶值19.15%。
盧佈
作為全球最大的石油生產商之一，俄羅斯的經濟隨著大宗商品價格而低落。
事實上，該國被迫將利率上升到17%防止資本逃離。根據俄羅斯的數據，該國的能源出口占總出口總額的70%，而能源總收入占全國預算份額的50%。
世界銀行發佈了關於俄羅斯無法進行經濟多樣化的警告。油價下跌一美元，該國的收入大約損失20美元。
2014年6月19日，北海佈倫特原油價格下跌49%，與此同時盧佈下跌49.05%。
哥倫比亞比索
處在南美洲北部邊緣，許多人不認為哥倫比亞是一個依靠能源出口的國家。然而，哥倫比亞是西半球最依賴能源出口的國家之一。
哥倫比亞45%的出口和石油和天然氣產品相關，使比索容易受到大宗商品價格波動的影響。像俄羅斯和其他嚴重依靠能源出口的公司一樣，這個國家正在嘗試多樣化其就業部門使其新興市場經濟達到發達的地位。然而，這種多樣化需要花費時間、教育和資源。
挪威克朗
石油在挪威的GDP中占據重要地位。挪威的石油部門是最重要的行業，石油闆塊占其GDP的21.5%和總出口的48.9%。然而由於油價低落，挪威克朗自2014年6月開始下降25.69%。
巴西雷亞爾
最近由於大宗商品價格下跌巴西雷亞爾已經達到有史以來兌美元的最低點。該國最大的能源公司Petrobras因巨大醜聞和原油價格下跌而陷入困境。
巴西希望2016年奧運會能振興其經濟，然而，缺乏多樣性、基礎設施薄弱和對大宗商品的過度依賴的系統性問題將會將會繼續困擾巴西的貨幣。雖然石油出口份額相對上述國家較小，大宗商品價格的下降使其貨幣下跌。自2014年6月雷亞爾下跌42.8%。
總結
油價下跌對依賴能源出口國家的貨幣有負面影響。和油價具有巨大相關性的貨幣被成為石油貨幣。其他的貨幣和石油價格有很強聯系的國家包括沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、伊拉克、尼日利亞和委内瑞拉。
The Currencies Most Affected by Falling Oil Prices
By James Garrett Baldwin | October 20, 2015
In 2015, oil prices have plunged globally in the wake of rising oil production and concerns about global economic growth. Prices have fallen by roughly half since June 2014, plummeting to levels that markets have not seen since the near-total collapse of world trade during the Great Recession of 2009. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that average oil prices will hover around $70 per barrel in 2020. While oil executives anticipate that it could be much longer until prices return to a range of $90 or $100 per barrel.
In the United States, more than 100,000 workers have lost their jobs as companies slash budgets and begin to re-evaluate the production of oil at current price levels. Ultimately, though the U.S. hasn't been dramatically impacted by declining oil prices because its economy is diverse.
Meanwhile, certain countries and their currencies are struggling significantly under the pressures of falling oil prices. A currency that is significantly impacted by the rising and falling oil prices is commonly known as a petrocurrency. In short, a petrocurrency is the currency of an oil-producing nation — like Russia or Canada — that has significant amounts of oil exports as a percentage of its entire export portfolio. Given such a large share of exports, the currency will rise and fall in correlation with the price of oil.
This article outlines five currencies with significant exposure to fluctuating oil prices and the impact on their economies.
The Canadian Loonie
In September 2015, Stephen Poloz, Governer of the Bank of Canada predicted that the country’s economy would bounce back from multi-year lows in oil prices. However, can it come back from a weakened currency?
Around the globe, the Canadian dollar is increasingly viewed as a petrocurrency. In August, the loonie hit an 11-year low due to a decline in global oil prices. The nation is the fifth-largest producer of oil in the world, and oil comprises 14% of all its exports, according to the Economist.
As explained in the image below, a strong correlation exists between the movement of the CAD/USD currency pairing and the price of oil over the last 14 years.
From June 2014 to September 2015, the Canadian dollar fell 19.15%. (For more, read: Do Falling Oil Prices Hurt the Canadian Economy?)
The Russian Ruble
As one of the world’s largest oil producers, Russia has seen its economic conditions decline in the wake of falling commodity prices.
In fact, the nation was forced to resort to hiking its interest rate to 17% to stave off capital flight from its struggling economy, which relies massively on oil-and-gas production. According to Russian statistics, the nation’s energy exports account for more than 70% of all exports, and energy incomes comprise more than 50% of the nation’s federal budget intake.
The World Bank has issued a dire warning about Russia’s inability to diversity its economy. For every $1 that oil prices decline, the nation loses roughly $2 billion in revenue.
On June 19, 2014, North Sea Brent crude prices declined by 49%; meanwhile the Russian ruble fell by 49.05% during the same period
The Colombian Peso
Tucked in the northern edge of South America, not many think of Colombia as a nation with a steep reliance on energy exports. However, Colombia is one of the most energy-dependent countries in the Western Hemisphere when it comes to generating revenue for its economy.
Roughly 45% of all exports in Colombia are tied to oil and gas products, making the Peso susceptible to price swings during times of commodity volatility. Like Russia and other companies with a steep reliance on energy exports, the nation is attempting to diversify its employment sectors to bring its emerging market economy into developed status. However, such diversification will take time, education, and resources.(For more, read: Is Colombia an Emerging Market Economy?).The Colombian peso has declined by 37.86% since oil prices began retreating in June 2014.
The Norwegian Krone
Oil is central to Norway's higher-than-average Gross Domestic Product and GDP per capita. The nation's economic success has been accelerated by a non-disrupted source of crude oil. Norway’s petroleum sector is its most important industry—the petroleum sector accounts for 21.5% of its GDP, and almost half (48.9%) of total exports. However, as a result of poor oil prices, the Norwegian Krone has been down 25.69% since June 2014. (Read more, here: Norway, the Safest Oil Economy?)
The Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real recently hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar as falling commodity prices weaken South America’s largest economy. The nation's largest energy company Petrobras has been crippled by a massive corruption scandal and falling crude prices.
Brazil hopes the 2016 Olympics will reinvigorate the economy; however, systemic problems related to a lack of economic diversity, weak infrastructure, and an over-reliance on commodity production will continue to plague Brazil’s currency long after the final gold medal has been issued. While the nation has a smaller percentage of oil exports than other companies on this list, falling commodity prices in metals, grains, and other agricultural commodities have pulled the Real down. Since June 2014, the Real has declined by 42.8%.
The Bottom Line
Falling oil prices can have an adverse impact on countries who's currencies rely on energy exports to fuel economic growth and development. Currencies with the highest correlation between oil prices and the value of the nation's money are traditionally known as petrocurrencies. Additional exporting countries whose currencies have a strong link to oil prices include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102015/currencies-most-affected-falling-oil-prices.asp