歐洲出路在其内

                                                                                     Jens Erik Gould  2015年7月24日

用持續的出口來刺激歐元區經濟複蘇是個很有誘惑力的方法。歐洲央行的資產購買計劃和希臘債務危機帶來的市場恐慌，使得2015年歐元兌美元的匯率下降了10%。歐元已經快同美元等價了，現在的交易價格是1.09美元兌1歐元。今年五月，出口大國德國的貿易順差擴大到1021億歐元，而整個歐元區的出口額環比下降了1.5%。 

瑞士信貸的專家指出，雖然歐元貶值會促進出口，但推動歐元區經濟增長的關鍵是内部消費者，而不在外部。瑞士信貸的歐元經濟部門主管稱：“歐洲的成敗都取決於歐元區的公司和股東。消費支出和企業支出的回升以及財政緊縮的結束才是關鍵。” 

2011年至2013年期間，財政緊縮政策和高失業率導致歐元區的内部需求崩潰，而未來將會發生驚人逆轉。數字會告訴你這個故事。在2015年第一季度，歐洲内部需求的增速達到金融危機以來的最高點，而零售業的增速也在六月達到了2.4%，創2007年以來的新高。六月的汽車銷量增加了15%，創五年以來新高，並且保持了連續22個月的增長。在第一季度中，除了法國，歐洲其他主要國家的購房信貸需求皆有增加，瑞士信貸預測，貸款將繼續增加。 

油價下跌也促使歐洲消費者掏出錢包。若不將價格變化考慮在内，名義上的消費支出在第一季度上漲了0.6%，而實際支出則增加了1.9%，2014年下半年和2015年初油價下跌是產生差額的主要原因。 

考慮到歐洲的美好增長前景，0.2%的通貨膨脹率就不甚理想。但是瑞士信貸指出，第一季度因勞動力成本和企業利潤等因素導致的“内部通貨膨脹”已達到了2008年以來的最高點。企業從中獲利最多，企業收益增長了6%，而工資收入只上漲了1.6%。企業收益提高，將有利於促進長期的消費需求。不僅如此，公司利潤率越高，越有可能增加新員工，從而降低歐洲的失業率。Hill說道：“強健的投資和就業，即使無法刺激内部需求的複蘇，但也能起到維持現狀的作用。”

The Key to Europe Is Domestic

On the one hand, it is tempting to make the case for a continuing Eurozone recovery based on exports alone. Thanks to the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program, as well as market jitters over the Greek debt crisis, the euro has fallen some 10 percent against the dollar in 2015. The European currency is now flirting with parity,trading at €1.09 to the dollar. Export powerhouse Germany’s trade surplus widened to a record €102.1 billion in May, even though the Eurozone as a whole saw exports decrease 1.5 percent from the previous month. 

But while Credit Suisse analysts acknowledge that the weakening currency does benefit exporters, they say domestic buyers, rather than foreign ones, hold the key to European growth. “The euro area’s recovery will stand or fall on the behavior of euro area firms and households,” says Credit Suisse Head of European Economics Neville Hill. “The revival in consumer and corporate spending, as well as the end of fiscal tightening, is what matters.” 

For a region where austerity measures and high unemployment caused domestic demand to collapse between 2011 and 2013, that outlook represents a stunning about-face. But the numbers tell the story. In the first quarter of 2015, European domestic demand grew faster than at any point since the financial crisis, while retail sales notched their highest growth rate since 2007 at 2.4 percent in June. Auto sales rose some 15 percent in June, the fastest pace in five years and the 22nd consecutive monthly increase. Credit demand for home purchases rose in all major European economies except for France in the first quarter, and Credit Suisse expects loan growth to continue throughout the year. 

Falling oil prices have played a key role in encouraging Eurozone consumers to open their wallets. While nominal consumer spending, which doesn’t take price changes into account, rose at an annualized pace of just 0.6 percent in the first quarter, real spending levels rose 1.9 percent. Most of the difference was due to the 57 percent decline in the price of oil in the second half of 2014 and the continued weakness in early 2015. 

In thinking about this rosy outlook for European growth, the region’s 0.2 percent inflation rate seems like a spoiler. But Credit Suisse points out that “domestically-generated inflation,” which consists primarily of labor costs and corporate profit margins, grew faster in the first quarter than in any other since 2008. Corporations reaped the lion’s share of that benefit, as profit margins rose some 6 percent while wages rose just 1.6 percent. But higher corporate profits should juice consumer demand in the long run. Not only that, companies with healthier margins are likely to start hiring more people, putting a dent in Europe’s high unemployment rate. “Stronger investment and employment,” Hill writes, “should sustain, if not boost, the ongoing revival in domestic demand.” 

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

本文來源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/the-key-to-europe-is-domestic/#sthash.8V1vKwiS.dpuf