現金過剩的困境：返還還是再投資？

Ashley Kindergan    2015 年11月10日

                   
隨著美國企業盈利能力的逐漸增強，企業持有大量現金，這是史無前例的，因此，如何處理這些現金成了高管們的一大難題。2015年第二季度，標普500公司的現金總額已達1.43萬億美元，追平了2014年第四季度創下的記錄。

那麼公司該怎樣處理這些現金呢？在最近發佈的一份白皮書《瑞士信貸公司見解》中，HOLT 企業咨詢總監 Rick Faery 提出了兩種方案。其一，通過分紅或股票回購的方式將現金返還給股東。其二，通過有機增長（資本支出、產品研發），兼並與收購等方式將資金重新投入到產業中。

在過去的20年中，公司將現金流量的60%用來進行資本投資（28%用於資本投資與研發，32%用於企業並購）。Faery 說：“但在近幾年中，激進投資者發起的維權運動，使得資本分配的優先級發生了變化，公司更傾向於回購、分紅及研發。”在2014年，資本投資下降到53%（27%有機增長，26%研發），而返還給股東的資金增加到36%（21%回購，15%分紅）。

那麼這兩種方法的成效如何呢？不出意料，直接返還資金的收益整體低於再投資的收益，收益率分別為9%和11%。但再投資的成功表明了長期投資的運營狀況已有明顯改善，在過去的五年中，再投資的收益增長到180個基本點，而直接返還資金的收益僅為150個基本點。
與此同時，在過去的五年中，再投資公司的銷量增長率要遠高於直接返還的公司，兩者的數據分別為19%和5%。再投資的公司即使表現不好，也能達到16%的增長率，直接返還者的銷量增長率則可低至4%。但市場還要向前看的，不是嗎？再投資公司的未來市場預期也要好於直接返還資金給股東的公司。

最後，還有一個需要考慮的問題是企業生命週期。在公司發展早期，增加盈利的機會很多，因此要乘勝追擊。然而，隨著業務逐漸成熟，現金增長和投資的機會逐漸減少，此時則應該將過剩的資金分配給股東。

The Excess Cash Dilemma: To Return or Reinvest?

With profitability at U.S. corporations touching historic highs, and corporate cash piles as large as they’ve ever been, one of the top tasks of executives these days is simply deciding how best to spend the money. Companies in the S&P 500 had an aggregate cash balance of $1.43 trillion in the second quarter of 2015, which tied a record set in the fourth quarter of 2014.
 
So what should companies be doing with all that money? In a recent white paper, Credit Suisse Corporate Insights, the Head of HOLT Corporate Advisory, Rick Faery outlined the two broad alternatives. “Returners” share the wealth right away with shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, while “reinvestors” pump money back into the business, through a combination of organic growth efforts (capital expenditures, research and development), and mergers and acquisitions.
 
For the last 20 years, companies deployed an average of 60 percent of cash flows to capital investment (28 percent to capex/R&D, 32 percent to M&A), and 26 percent to shareholders (12 percent dividends, 14 percent buybacks). “[But] in recent years,” says Faery, “due in part to the pressures of noisy campaigns by activist investors, there has been a shift in capital allocation priorities, favoring share buybacks and dividends over capital investments and M&A.” In 2014, capital investment dropped to 53 percent (27 percent organic growth, 26 percent M&A) and money returned to shareholders rose to 36 percent (21 percent buybacks, 15 percent dividends).

So how have the differing approaches panned out? Not surprisingly, the initial returns on capital are generally lower for reinvestors than returners, averaging 9 percent and 11 percent, respectively. But those who reinvest successfully show greater operating improvement over the long-term, with cash flow return on investment up 180 basis points over five years, versus just 150 basis points for cash returners.
 
Meanwhile, companies that reinvest show dramatically stronger sales growth over a five-year period than returners, 19 percent versus just 5 percent. Even reinvestors that underperformed their peers saw sales grow 16 percent a year, compared to just 4 percent for underperforming returners. But the market looks to the future, right? Well, companies that reinvest also tend to be much more effective in increasing market expectations about their future growth than those that returned cash to shareholders. And the market has persistently paid a premium for companies that offer compelling growth stories over those that don’t.
 
Finally, there’s the question of the corporate life cycle. For early-stage companies, profitable growth opportunities are abundant and should therefore be aggressively pursued. As businesses mature, however, and cash flows expand and investment opportunities diminish, the balance should shift toward returning excess cash to shareholders.

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：
https://www.thefinancialist.com/the-excess-cash-dilemma-to-return-or-reinvest/#sthash.LFhkszDW.dpuf