Trevir Nath 2015年11月11日
美元貶值
在2008年金融危機後中國成為美國的一個大債主已經不是什麼秘密了。現在中國是美國國債的最大持有國之一，持有1.3萬億美元美國國債。只要中國繼續持有如此大量的美國國債，投資者就會認為美國經濟受中國的支配。如果中國經濟繼續惡化，很可能出現中國傾售持有的國債的情況。美國國債的急速賣出將會使美元貶值，使投資者的投資組合價值下降。因為大多數美國企業依靠進口資源，美元貶值將會使資源更昂貴，從而造成利潤和股價壓力。然而，美國財政部仍然是中國能獲得的最穩定和流動性資產，所以傾售只能用來穩定人民幣。
通貨緊縮
雖然中國和美國在外交問題上存在分歧，但是兩個國家在廣泛的貿易上建立了強烈的聯系。兩國2014年的雙邊貿易額達5900億美元。作為美國對抗經濟低增長時期的主要貿易夥伴，中國的制造商在過去6年中不斷降低價格。近期，中國的低增長已經影響了石油和大宗商品的價格，使美國出現了潛在的通縮風險。隨著美元的加息，將會給美國出口商與國際市場競争造成苦難。因為價格越低越具有吸引力，長期看來公司必須降價以保持競争力，導致利潤率和股價的降低。這一連鎖反應將會使政府重新考慮美元加息。
降低樂觀情緒
在過去30年中，中國的經濟增長速度平均為10%，高峰為13%。由於這一史無前例的增長速度，中國已成為全球第二大經濟體和最大的原材料消費國，然而當這個經濟體出現虛弱的信號，將會對全球經濟產生連鎖影響。經濟疲軟導致中國允許人民幣更加自由的交易，導致大宗商品價格的下降並使貿易對手貶值他們的貨幣。這和經濟增長放緩一起喚起美國投資者的懷疑。
在這些事件之前，許多人認為中國的經濟數據是虛假的，政府吹噓的數據遠比真實情況好的多。中國近期的動作也沒有取得效果，美國投資者的看法是中國政府助長了股市泡沫，這將遲早會爆發。這導致中國投資者撤出中國股票市場湧向美國房地產市場，引起美國房價暴漲。
總結
中國的經濟曾被預測將會在短期超過美國。然而最近的事件導致投資者都很小心謹慎。隨著中國市場近期的動蕩，中國經濟放緩被認為將成為全球經濟動蕩的催化劑。在所有的擔憂中，中國的困難將會對美國經濟造成持久影響，這也是中國從投資驅動型經濟向消費驅動型經濟轉化必須克服的困難。
Why U.S. Investors are Concerned About China
By Trevir Nath | November 11, 2015
U.S. Dollar Devaluation
It is no big secret that following the 2008 financial crisis China financed a large portion of America’s debt. Currently, the nation is one of the biggest holders of U.S. debt—holding $1.3 trillion of U.S. debt. As long as China continues to hold a massive amount of U.S. debt, investors believe the U.S. economy is at the mercy of China. If the Chinese economy continues to deteriorate, a worst case scenario can arise where China begins to dump their Treasury holdings. Selling U.S. debt at a rapid pace would devalue the domestic currency, resulting in downward pressure on your portfolio. Since the majority of U.S. businesses rely on imported resources, a declining U.S. dollar would make resources more expensive and thus put pressure on profits and share prices. However, the U.S. Treasury remains the most stable and liquid asset China could acquire, so a sell-off would only occur to stabilize the Yuan.
Deflation
While China and the U.S. have not always seen eye-to-eye on diplomatic issues, the two countries have a strong relationship built on extensive trade. Two-way trade between China and the United States amounted to $590 billion in 2014. As the United States’ primary trading partner struggles with low growth, Chinese manufacturers have slashed prices at the fastest rate in six years. Recently, low Chinese growth has depressed oil and commodity prices, creating a potential deflationary spillover to the United States. With U.S. interest rates on the verge of increasing, importing deflation would make it difficult for U.S. exporters to compete in the global markets. While cheaper prices may seem attractive, in the long-term companies will be forced to cut prices to remain competitive, resulting in lower profit margins and equity prices. This chain reaction would cause the government to re-evaluate their decision to raise interest rates until consumer spending returned to normal.
Decreased Optimism
Over the past 30 years, the Chinese economy had boasted average growth of nearly 10% with peaks of 13%. As a result of this unprecedented growth, China has grown into the second largest economy in the world and one of the biggest consumers of raw materials; however, when the second largest economy begins to show signs of weakness, this has a spillover effect on the global economy. China’s sluggishness has led the nation to allow its currency to trade more freely, prompting a decline in commodity prices and trading rivals to devalue their own currency. This, in conjunction with slowing growth, has invoked a shroud of skepticism amongst U.S. Investors.
Before these events, many believed Chinese economic data was all smoke and mirrors, perpetuated by the government’s inflated statistics to make the economy appear better than it was. China’s recent actions have not helped either, with U.S. investors under the impression the Chinese government helped inflate the stock market bubble, which appeared to erupt earlier this year. This in itself has led Chinese investors to retreat from the stock market and flood the U.S. real estate market, provoking inflating U.S. house prices.
The Bottom Line
China’s growth was predicted to pass the United States shortly. However, its recent blunders have caused investors to hold their breath. As markets throughout China have recently wavered, an economic slowdown in China is believed to be a catalyst to the economic turmoil around the world. Amid all the concern, China’s difficulties should not have long-lasting effects on the U.S. economy rather it is a hurdle China must overcome as it transitions from an investment led to a consumer driven economy.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/111115/why-us-investors-are-concerned-about-china.asp