利率上升將會對美元產生影響嗎？

Matt Rego    2015年11月18日

在10月的美聯儲會議的強硬總結之後，市場至少該對2015年12月的利率上調做好準備。由於利率上調將會使借款和貸款成本增加，所以會直接影響消費者。

從這個角度看，利率上調將會使購買更加昂貴，例如住房和汽車，但是利率上調也發出經濟增長前景樂觀的信號。這也會提升商業信心使企業消費和招聘增加。利率上升將會影響經濟的許多方面，那麼他們是怎樣影響美元價值呢？

利率上升對貨幣來說是利好事件

根據政府的經濟報告，一個對貨幣最重要和最有影響報告是利率決定。和GDP、貿易平衡、失業率一樣，利率決定引發貨幣市場的巨大運動。然而，觀察1990年到2015年的美聯儲利率上調之後的美元表現會發現加息對美元有一定的削弱並且和傳統現象相反。

在1994年，美聯儲開始加息然而美元在1995年初開始下跌。第二輪加息是在1997年，美元開始上升並持續到2001年。最後一次加息是在2003年到2006年之間，結果美元在其間下跌。簡而言之，由於投資者可以獲得更高的附帶收益，加息對貨幣事件利好事件，在過去25年美元和聯邦利率上調具有非傳統的低相關性。

美元在下一次加息中很可能不會出現重大移動

當美聯儲再次進行加息，不要期望美元會出現實質性巨大變動。首先正如上面提到的，美國加息與美元有較低或者負相關性，而且美元在2014年末已經出現了巨大上升。自2014年末以來，美元指數已經從81美元上升到2015年11月的97.59美元。在一段時間曾超過100美元。這是貨幣市場的一個巨大變動，因為投資者在去年對加息抱有高度預期。分析人士和市場專家不斷重複美元對加息的反映可能相對有限。

總結

美國的低利率持續了接近8年，當前現狀是美國經濟增長緩慢。利率上升將會為經濟帶來更多的積極信號，但是不要太過樂觀，過去20年的經驗告訴我們利率上升和美元的相關性非常低。事實上美元自2014年末已經進行了巨大上升，這將導致押註在美元將會進行另一個巨大上升的投資者非常失望。

Will a Hike in Interest Rates Affect the US Dollar? 

By Matt Rego | November 18, 2015   

After a particularly hawkish conclusion from the October 2015 U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, the markets are at least preparing for the real possibility that December 2015 could finally be the time when interest rates see an uptick. Rising rates have far-reaching implications for the U.S. and global economies. Rising interest rates tend to get a bad reputation due to the fact that borrowing and loan costs usually see an increase, thus directly affecting consumers.

From this standpoint, rising rates may make bigger purchases, such as houses or cars, more expensive, but rising rates also signal there is a positive outlook on the economy and growth is expected to continue. This vote of confidence can help spark more corporate spending and hiring down the line as business confidence also rises. While rising interest rates affect many aspects of the economy, how do they affect the value of the U.S. dollar?

Rising Interest Rates Prove to be Bullish Events for Currencies

In terms of government economic reporting, one of the most important and impactful reports on currencies is interest rate decisions. Along with gross domestic product (GDP), trade balance and unemployment figures, interest rate decisions have the ability to cause significant moves in the currency markets. However, when looking at the U.S. dollar’s performance after the Federal Reserve raised rates from 1990 to 2015, rate increases and their correlation to the U.S. dollar have certainly weakened and gone against the traditional phenomena.

In 1994, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates and then watched as the dollar sank through the beginning of 1995. By the time the next round of interest rate hikes came in 1997, the U.S. dollar was beginning a rally that would last through 2001. The last rising rate cycle between 2003 and 2006 was sandwiched between two recessions, and subsequently, the U.S. dollar lost value during that cycle. In short, while rising rates traditionally are very bullish for currencies, due to the fact that investors are able to obtain higher carry interest, the U.S. dollar and federal funds rate increases over the past 25 years have had a nontraditional low correlation.

U.S. Dollar Not Likely to See Major Move During Next Rate Increase

When the Federal Reserve once again enters a rising rate cycle, do not expect the U.S. dollar to sustain a substantial move. For one thing, as mentioned above, U.S. rate increases have had low to negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar has already sustained a massive rally since late 2014. Since late last 2014, the U.S. dollar index has rallied from around $81 to its current $97.59 in November 2015. At one point, the index was above $100. This is a substantial move in the currency markets, as investors have been highly anticipating a rate increase for the past year. Analysts and market pundits have continually reiterated there is a strong likelihood the dollar’s response to a rate increase could be relatively muted.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is the United States has been in a record low interest rate environment for almost eight years, and the U.S. economy’s sluggish growth actively reflects the current environment. Rising interest rates signal more confidence in the economy, but do not be fooled; rising rates are shown to have less correlation with the U.S. dollar over the past couple of decades. Tie in the fact the U.S. dollar has already seen a massive rally since late 2014 and this leads to the likelihood that investors who are betting on another sustained leg higher in the U.S. dollar rally are likely to be sorely disappointed.

本文翻譯出自兄弟財經

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/111815/will-hike-interest-rates-affect-us-dollar.asp