希臘選擇左翼反緊縮政府的六個月之後，差一點退出了歐元區。所以市場密切關註葡萄牙的發展前景就不足為奇了，因為作為歐洲緊縮政策的模範國家，葡萄牙正在取代與反緊縮左翼聯盟的中右翼政府。11月9日，葡萄牙十年期國債的收益與社會民主黨在10月4日議會選舉中落選時相比，躍增53個基本點，達到了2.83%。在選舉之後的幾天内，股票市場略有上漲，但隨後又下跌了近4%。雖然市場中存在恐慌，但瑞士信貸認為葡萄牙不會步希臘的後塵。
今年十月，社會民主黨人（主要為中右翼黨派）贏得了選舉，且葡萄牙總統重新任命了Pedro Passos Coelho首相。與此同時，投票排名第二的社會主義黨與共產黨和左翼集團達成了協議，共同合作以獲得更多投票。11月10日，左翼聯盟通過不信任投票推翻了Coelho政府。現在葡萄牙總統既不能建立Coelho為首的臨時政府，也不能允許左翼聯盟掌權。還有第三種可能：社會主義黨接受Coelho的挑戰，允許提前選舉，這樣可能使議會的結構更加穩定。
無論哪種方法獲勝，發生政治動蕩的可能性都很高。左翼的三個黨派之間有很大的政治分歧，瑞士信貸認為，聯合政府只能支撐幾個月。左翼集團和共產主義黨派都是反緊縮的疑歐派。共產主義黨派試圖將葡萄牙銀行國有化，退出北約並進行外國債務重組。社會主義黨稍微溫和一些。社會主義黨領導人及左翼聯合政府的假定首相Antonio Costa曾表示，新政府將通過債務重組與歐洲債權人對抗，以免重蹈希臘覆轍。
但社會主義黨人確實想要緩解財政緊縮。在過去的幾年中，政府提高稅收，改革國有企業，私有化資產，解雇10%的政府工作人員，削減公共部門的工資，並通過了一系列的私營部門改革，其中包括破產法和勞動法的修改。
結果很令人滿意。雖然三巨頭歐洲央行、歐盟委員會及國際貨幣基金組織仍在監視其財政和金融政策，葡萄牙依舊在2014年5月退出了780億歐元的歐盟救助計劃。在過去的一年中，除開銀行倒閉等一次性大額支出，葡萄牙的財政赤字為3.4%，較兩年前的4.8%有所下降。借貸成本也大幅下降。雖然在選舉之後政府債務增加了近3%，但卻遠低於2012年的兩位數赤字。
自2013年以來，葡萄牙的經濟穩步上升，瑞士信貸預測在2016年時，葡萄牙的增速將超過歐元區1.8%-2%。自歐洲債務危機開始，葡萄牙的人工成本驟減，出口量飙升。截至2013年底，出口量已占全國經濟的40%，而在危機之前只有30%。然而這個增長並不是外部驅動的。2015年第三季度，私人消費的增速達到了同比3.2%。2013年以來，消費者信心持續增長，失業率自1月的17.5%下降到9月的12.2%。
瑞士信貸分析家在最近一份報告中表示：“我們相信，即使左翼聯盟掌權，葡萄牙社會主義黨也會保留足夠的歐盟DNA來避免希臘在年初遇到的各種不穩定因素。”最後，歐洲央行的量化寬松政策很可能將借貸成本維持在較低的水平。葡萄牙為了逃出金融財政危機付出了很多，即使政府領導換屆也不會改變這一進程。
Europe’s New Worry: Portugal
In July, six months after Greece elected a left-wing, anti-austerity government, the country came perilously close to leaving the euro. So it’s easy to understand why markets are nervous at the prospect of Portugal, a poster child for European austerity, replacing its reform-friendly, center-right government with a left-wing, anti-austerity coalition. The yield on 10-year Portuguese government bonds jumped 53 basis points to peak at 2.83 percent on November 9 since the ruling Social Democrats lost their majority in the Portuguese Assembly in elections held October 4. (Yields have since dropped to 2.49 percent). The stock market rose for a few days after the election, but is down nearly 4 percent since then. Despite the market’s fears, however, Credit Suisse thinks it unlikely that Portugal is destined to follow in Greece’s footsteps.
In October, the Social Democrats (the main center-right party) won the most votes of any party, and Portugal’s president reappointed Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho. It soon became clear, however, that the Social Democrats couldn’t form a stable government. Meanwhile, the Socialists, who received the next-largest share of votes, made a deal with the Communist Party and the Left Bloc, the latter of which has been compared to Greece’s populist Syriza party, to form a coalition with enough votes to govern. On November 10, the left-wing alliance pushed through a no-confidence vote to topple Coelho’s government. Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva can now either appoint a caretaker government headed by Coelho, which would need to find common ground with the Socialists and others to get anything done, or allow the left-wing alliance to take power. A third possibility: the Socialists accept Coelho’s challenge to allow early elections that might produce a more stable configuration in the Assembly.
No matter which short-term outcome prevails, political instability is most likely ahead. The three left-wing parties have major policy differences, and Credit Suisse believes a coalition government would only last a few months. The Left Bloc and Communist Parties are anti-austerity Euroskeptics. The Communists campaigned on nationalizing Portuguese banks, dropping out of NATO, and restructuring foreign debt. The Socialists are more moderate. Antonio Costa, the leader of the Socialists and presumptive prime minister in a left-wing coalition government, has said the new government would not follow Greece’s example by forcing a confrontation with European creditors over debt restructuring.
The Socialists do want to ease off austerity, however. Over the last few years, the government has hiked taxes, overhauled state-owned enterprises, privatized assets, laid off 10 percent of government workers, cut public-sector salaries, and passed a slew of private-sector reforms, including changes to bankruptcy and labor laws.
The results have been impressive. Portugal exited its €78 billion European bailout in May 2014, though the so-called troika of the European Central Bank, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund continues to monitor the country’s finances and economic policies. Setting aside some one-time spending on big-ticket items over the past year, including a bailout for a failing bank, Portugal’s budget deficit is at 3.4 percent, down from 4.8 percent two years ago. Borrowing costs have also fallen dramatically. Though government debt yields climbed close to 3 percent following the elections, they’re nowhere close to the double-digit rates of 2012.
The country’s economy has been growing steadily since 2013, and Credit Suisse’s predicts higher growth in Portugal than the euro zone in 2016, 2 percent to 1.8 percent. Portuguese labor costs have fallen sharply since the European debt crisis, and exports have soared. By the end of 2013, exports accounted for more than 40 percent of the economy, up from less than 30 percent before the crisis. But the recovery isn’t only externally-driven. Growth in private consumption accelerated to 3.2 percent, year-over-year, in the third quarter of 2015, the largest increase since 2010. Consumer confidence has been climbing since 2013, with unemployment falling from a peak of 17.5 percent in January of that year to 12.2 percent in September – still high, but a marked improvement no less.
A left-wing government might raise government workers’ salaries and reduce those taxes that the previous administration raised in an effort to reduce the deficit, but European monitoring and the Socialists’ stated desire to avoid a Greece-style crisis make a complete reversal of austerity measures unlikely. Portugal’s private-sector reforms are also likely to stay. “Even if a leftist coalition were to govern, we believe the Portuguese Socialist has a sufficiently strong European DNA to avoid more fundamental uncertainties that were present in the Greek crisis earlier this year,” say Credit Suisse analysts in a recent report. Finally, the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program is likely to keep borrowing costs relatively low. Portugal has done a considerable job digging itself out of an economic and fiscal crisis, and a change in government isn’t likely to derail that progress.
文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/europes-new-worry-portugal/#sthash.PnTrToMq.dpuf