Russ Koesteric 2015年11月18日
在巴黎恐怖襲擊後充滿不確定性的一週中，一件事是確定的：美國經濟仍然相對反彈，而全球經濟持續下滑。上週經合組織做出了三個月内對全球經濟增長預測的第二次削減，今年降低到2.9%而2016年降低到3.3%，原來的預測均為3.6%。
一部分問題出現在新興市場，作為過去十年經濟增長的大部分動力的新興市場增長持續下降。上週中國經濟增長放緩出現了更多的迹象。出口同比下降3.6%，而且通脹和工業生產都在下降。在其他地方，週五巴黎的多處恐怖襲擊增加了全球恐怖主義的威脅。從經濟角度看來，這些恐怖襲擊會對法國和歐元區經濟造成壓力。
同時，全球經濟疲軟正在影響市場並對投資組合有多個含義，正如我在新的一週評論中寫到的“收益率仍然熱銷的商品。”
隨著美元變得強勢，溫和的增長迫使分析師降低2016年的收益預測。彭博社數據顯示過去兩週對2016年標準普爾500的收益預測已經下跌了2個百分點。美元將會進一步強勢，全球經濟將會繼續疲軟。
此外，全球經濟疲軟意味著世界各地的中央銀行將會施行更多的貨幣寬松政策。即使在美聯儲加息之前，歐洲、日本和中國央行的寬松政策將會給美元帶來上升壓力，導致事實上的貨幣緊縮政策。而同時，強勢的美元有助於抑制通脹。
這對投資者意味著什麼呢，請記住一下三點。
全球經濟增長放緩的影響
週期性商品的壓力
全球經濟增長疲軟和通脹率偏低繼續對大宗商品價格造成壓力，尤其是依賴經濟增長的商品，例如工業金屬和石油價格。
不變的長期利率
在通脹和收益率偏低的環境中，投資者很可能進行收益率延伸。例子：上週以道瓊斯公用事業指數來衡量的公用事業股票銷量有所增加並且收益上升。盡管該行業仍然價格偏高，投資者也願意對相對安全的股息支付額外費用。
投資組合收益率的持續需求
我不追求公用事業和消費必需品那樣的完美收益，其他部分的收益空間更有吸引力。例如，以美國標準普爾優先股指數衡量的優先股受到相當的重視，並且提供獲利的機會。由於經濟增長持續疲軟，我認為收益率仍將是個有價值的商品。
What Slow Global Growth Means for Portfolios
By Russ Koesterich | November 18, 2015
As we head into a new week filled with uncertainty after the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris, one thing is clear: While U.S. growth remains relatively resilient, global growth continues to slip. Last week the OECD cut its estimate of global growth for the second time in three months. The organization now expects the global economy to grow 2.9 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2016, down from previous estimates of 3.6 percent for both years.
Part of the problem is that emerging markets, an engine of growth for much of the past decade, continue to decelerate. Last week provided more evidence of the slowdown in China. Exports are now down 3.6 percent from a year earlier while both inflation and industrial production are decelerating, according to Bloomberg data. Elsewhere, Friday’s multiple terrorist attacks in Paris reinforce the significant threat that global terrorism represents throughout the world. From an economic perspective, the fallout from these attacks will likely put some pressure on the French economy as well as the euro.
In the meantime, the sluggish global environment is impacting markets and has several implications for portfolios, as I write in my new weekly commentary, “Yield: One Commodity That’s Still Hot.”
Along with a strong dollar, tepid growth is pushing down analysts’ estimates for 2016 earnings. Estimates for S&P 500 2016 earnings have fallen by 2 percentage points over the past five weeks, Bloomberg data show. Should the dollar continue to rise and/or global growth remain sluggish, they may have further to fall.
In addition, slow global growth implies more monetary easing by most of the world’s central banks. Even before the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates, easing by central banks in Europe, Japan and China may put further upward pressure on the dollar, resulting in a de facto monetary tightening. In turn, a strong dollar is helping to keep a lid on inflation.
As for what this means for investors, three implications are top of mind.
The Impact of Slower Global Growth
Pressure on Cyclical Commodities
Sluggish global growth and muted inflation continue to put pressure on commodity prices, particularly those most exposed to global growth, like prices for industrial metals and oil.
Contained Long-Term Rates
In an environment in which inflation is modest and yields remain low, investors are likely to continue to stretch for yield. Case in point: Last week utility stocks, as measured by the Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Index, managed to buck the broader selling and post a small gain, according to numbers via Bloomberg. Though the sector remains expensive, in a low yield world, investors are more willing to pay a premium for companies with relatively safe dividends.
Continued Desire for Yield in Portfolios
While I wouldn’t chase classic yield plays like utilities or consumer staples, other parts of the yield space look more interesting. For example, preferred stock, as measured by the S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index, appears reasonably valued, and offers an opportunity to seek yield. To the extent that growth remains sluggish, I believe that yield is likely to remain a valuable commodity.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/markets/111815/what-slow-global-growth-means-portfolios.asp