達拉斯聯儲主席反對零利率政策

達拉斯聯儲主席Rob Kaplan在週三的就職演講中表示，要告別零利率政策，反映出美聯儲對貨幣政策的態度。

上一任達拉斯聯儲主席Richard Fisher是個對美聯儲政策委員會態度強硬的局外人，並且善於引用溫斯頓·丘吉爾和米克·賈吉爾的名言。

Kaplan在九月加入美聯儲後發表了第一次演講，他極力避免與對手費希爾發生沖突，並對國家和德州的經濟前景進行了詳盡的描述。

他說：“寬鬆的政策並不意味著聯邦基金利率為零。”

Kaplan曾任高盛集團副總裁和哈佛大學商學院教授，他認為零利率可能會導致商業投資決策的扭曲。

他說：“扭曲的後果不會立時出現，但會導致投資、存貨和雇佣決策的不平衡，在政策恢復正常之後，嚴重的後果才會顯現。”

Kaplan在2017年之後才會擁有美聯儲政策委員會的投票權。他認為美聯儲至今未增加利率是“明智的”。

美聯儲大多數官員對2008年以來的零利率政策都表示過不安。

自六月推遲加息以後，美聯儲在十月表示，是否應該在十二月的會議上加息仍值得商榷。

美聯儲主席Janet Yellen隨後表示，下個月加息“極有可能”。

週三早些時候，其他三個地區的美聯儲主席也支援不久後的加息。

華爾街日報報道，擁有2015年投票權的亞特蘭大聯儲主席Dennis Lockhart表示支援不久後的加息。Lockhart稱美聯儲加息是有條件的。進一步加強勞動力市場，這一條已經滿足了，而國際金融市場動蕩問題已在十月的會議中得到解決。

同樣地，擁有2016年投票權的克里蘭夫聯儲主席Loretta Mester重申，她認為當前的經濟能夠消化十二月的小幅加息。

里奇蒙德聯儲主席Jeffrey Lacker在CNBC訪問中表示，他會繼續支援加息。Laker在前兩次會議中曾對加息表示反對。

下一次美聯儲會議將在12月15日-16日舉行。

在Kaplan演講之後發佈的美聯儲十月會議記錄顯示，大多數與會者都認為，下次會議可能會達到緊縮的條件。

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasDallas Fed president joins chorus of those who see reason to end zero-rate policy

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Rob Kaplan, the president of the Dallas Fed, in his inaugural speech Wednesday expressed the need to let go of the zero interest rate policy, a position that puts him in the center of the U.S. central bank’s views on monetary policy.

Kaplan’s predecessor, Richard Fisher, often found himself a hawkish outlier on the Fed policy committee and was famous for speeches that quoted both Winston Churchill and Mick Jagger.

In his first speech since joining the Fed in September, Kaplan seemed to be deliberately trying to avoid competing with Fisher, presenting a detailed, if dry, overview of the national and Texas economic outlooks.

Kaplan said that the outlook for the U.S. economy seemed to justify a lower-than-usual federal funds rates and that a return to “normal” rates would be gradual.

“However, accommodative policy does not necessarily mean a zero fed funds rate,” he said.

Kaplan, a former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and a professor at the Harvard Business School, said zero rates could lead to distortions in business and investment decisions.

These distortions, which are hard to see in real time, “can create imbalances in investments, inventory and hiring decisions that may later need to be painfully unwound when policy normalizes,” he said.

Kaplan, who won't have a vote on the Fed policy committee until 2017, didn't specify whether he would back a rate hike in December. He said the decision by the U.S. central bank not to hike rates so far this year was “prudent.”

Most Fed officials have expressed similar unease with rates stuck at zero since late 2008.

After considering delaying a rate hike at every meeting since June, the Fed said in October, for the first time, that it would consider whether it would be appropriate to hike rates at its next meeting in December.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen followed up by telling Congress a rate hike next month was a “live possibility.”

Earlier Wednesday, three other regional Fed presidents also backed a rate hike in the near future.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, a voting member this year, told a panel discussion in New York that he is comfortable moving rates higher “soon,” according to The Wall Street Journal. Lockhart said the one of the Fed’s criteria for a rate hike — further improvement in the labor market- has been met and international financial market volatility issues have settled down since the last Fed meeting in October.

Speaking on the same panel, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, a voter in 2016, repeated she thinks the economy can handle a small rate hike in December.

And Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said in a CNBC interview that he also continues to support a rate increase. Lacker has dissented at the last two Fed meetings in favor of a rate hike.

The Fed next meets on Dec. 15-16.

Minutes of the Fed’s October meeting released after Kaplan spoke, confirmed that “most” participants at the meeting anticipated that conditions for tightening could well be met by that meeting.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dallas-fed-president-like-most-of-his-colleagues-sees-reasons-to-let-go-of-zero-rates-2015-11-18