油價逼近2009年以來的最低點

在上週原油出口國宣佈維持當前產量後，油價進一步下跌，創下了7年以來的新低。 

在紐約商品交易所，一月到期的西德克薩斯中質油CLF6下跌2.32美元（5.8%），達到一桶37.65美元。這是九月以來單日跌幅最大的一天。 

在倫敦洲際交易所，一月到期的佈倫特原油LCOF6下跌2.27美元（5.3%），達到一桶40.73美元。

上週WTI和Brent的油價皆下跌了約4.2%，尚未跌破2009年2月以來的最低點。 

石油輸出國組織（OPEC）週五在維也納舉行會議，並做出決定，即使市場供大於求，也要維持當前產量。會議結束後，西德州中質原油下跌2.7%，而佈倫特原油期貨下跌1.9%。 

瑞傑金融集團的能源分析家Luana Siegfried表示：“不幸的是，會議僅僅重申了OPEC保護市場份額的策略。最有希望挽救油價的是供需曲線，而OPEC不顧當前疲軟的需求，仍維持供大於求的現狀。” 

此前OPEC的產量上限是每天3000萬桶，但據市場估計，成員們的實際產量已接近3150萬桶。分析家認為，OPEC的決策就是預設了生產過剩的合法性。 

德國商業銀行分析家在週一表示：“沒有結果就是好結果，在OPEC當前的情況下，也不會有更糟的結果了。” 

但油價過低還是會對產量造成些許影響。美國政府週一發佈的月度數據表明，國內頁岩油產量將在一月份減少11.6萬桶，降至每天486.1萬桶。 

MV金融的投資策略和調研部主管Katrina Lamb表示：“WTI的油價將在40美元附近徘徊。” 

如果油價偶爾突破下限她也不會感到驚訝，因為會議的反應和其他勢力會在隨後的幾週里影響油價，但她認為，直到明年油價都會在40美元至60美元的區間內波動。 

Lamb說：“考慮到OPEC會議後的受傷情緒，我們不能忽略OPEC本身會給油價帶來怎樣的動蕩。” 

在紐約商品期貨交易所，石油產品價格都出現大幅下跌，一月到期的汽油RBF6下跌了6.1美分（4.8%），達到每加侖1.209美元。一月到期的燃料油HOF6下跌了6.3美分（4.7%），達到每加侖1.28美元。

一月到期的天然氣NGF16下跌11.9美分（5.4%），達到每百萬英熱單位2.067美元。 

Oil settles at lowest levels since early 2009 

Oil futures plunged further on Monday to mark their lowest settlements in nearly 7 years, in the aftermath of the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week to keep crude production running at current levels. 

January West Texas Intermediate crude CLF6, +0.35% dropped $2.32, or 5.8%, to settle at $37.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the largest one-day percentage loss since September. 

January Brent crude LCOF6, +0.61% fell $2.27, or 5.3%, to end at $40.73 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. 

WTI and Brent prices, which each lost about 4.2% last week, haven’t settled at levels this low since February 2009, based on the most-active contracts. 

On Friday, WTI crude settled 2.7% lower while Brent futures lost 1.9% after OPEC, at its meeting in Vienna, agreed to maintain a ceiling that reflects “current actual production” even as the market struggles with oversupply. 

“Unfortunately, the meeting just restates that OPEC is stuck to their strategy of protecting market share,” said Luana Siegfried, energy analyst at Raymond James. The decision “most likely will keep a lid on crude prices as the supply side of the supply/demand curve ... will remain glutted, not being totally absorbed by weak demand.” 

OPEC previously had a production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, but members have been producing closer to 31.5 million barrels a day, according to market estimates. Analysts have concluded that the decision essentially legitimizes the cartel’s overproduction. 

“No result is also a result, and in the case of OPEC it is hard to imagine a more negative one,” said Commerzbank commodity analysts in a Monday note. “If in a critical situation OPEC cannot even agree on a lowest common denominator such as an official production limit, it is permissible to question its right to exist. In any case, the oil price looks likely to find virtually no support from OPEC in the coming months.” 

Still, the low prices do seem to be having an impact on production. Monthly data released Monday by the U.S. government showed that domestic shale-oil output is expected to fall by 116,000 barrels a day to 4.861 million barrels a day in January. 

As for prices, Katrina Lamb, head of investment strategy and research at MV Financial, said there seems to be “a fairly retractable support level for WTI not too far from $40.” 

She said she wouldn’t be too surprised to see occasional breaches on the downside as meeting reaction and other forces play out over the next couple of weeks or so, but a $40-$60 range is “a plausible corridor heading into next year.” 

Given the “bruised emotions” following the OPEC meeting, “we can’t ignore the potential for OPEC itself ... to be a contributor to ongoing volatility,” said Lamb. 

On Nymex, petroleum product prices also ended sharply lower, with January gasoline RBF6, +0.58%  down 6.1 cents, or 4.8%, at $1.209 a gallon and January heating oil HOF6, +0.44%  losing 6.3 cents, or 4.7%, to $1.28 a gallon. 

January natural gas NGF16, -0.10%  ended at $2.067 per million British thermal units, down 11.9 cents, or 5.4%. 

文章翻譯由兄弟財經提供

本文來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-stuck-below-40-a-barrel-after-opec-decision-2015-12-07?link=MW_popular