John Edwards
交易原油期貨使用高槓桿。很可能在短時間内獲得巨大的利潤或者損失。原油價格因波動性巨大而臭名昭著。它很容易在一個交易日移動5%到10%。原油價格對政治和經濟新聞以及週存儲和產量報告格外敏感。
交易原油期貨承擔巨大的風險。如果價格運動方向與投資者下單方向相反需要巨額的保證金，否則可能爆倉。然而，有一些策略可以定義資金風險。想要投資原油期貨的投資者需要了解他們怎麼運轉和其中的風險。
原油合約說明
期貨合約是一個在未來以預定價格出售或買進特定大宗商品或者金融工具的協議。期貨合約是標準的，能在交易所進行交易。有些期貨合約以實物交付結算，另外的則根據合約的最終價格以資金結算。
一份原油期貨合約代表著1000桶原油在未來某個時間交付。原油合約每1美元的價格移動等於1000美元。假設一個投資者在50美元買入某個原油合約。如果價格下跌到48美元，該投資者在這次操作中將會損失2000美元。
原油合約在紐約商品交易所交易。這裡有美國輕質原油和佈倫特原油合約。兩個合約都是實物交付。許多投資者不希望實物交付如此多的原油。因此投資者需要註意合約的交付和到期日期。投資者需要把倉位延期到下一個月或者關閉倉位。
交易原油期貨的保證金
期貨交易中需要使用保證金。投資者需要支付合約價值的部分比例以開立倉位，這被稱為初始保證金。保證金作為一個金融抵押以保證合約的買入或者賣出人遵守合約條款。2015年10月起輕質原油的初始保證金在4500美元左右。這是整個期貨合約價值的10%。交易所根據潛在商品的價格和波動修改初始保證金。
投資者必須在賬戶保留足夠資金以維持倉位。這被成為維持保證金金額，通常會比初始保證金少一點。如果賬戶價值下降到低於維持保證金金額，投資者將會接到追加保證金要求。投資者必須投入更多的資金以達到保證金要求或者以一個虧損價格關閉倉位，這是交易期貨的風險。
原油差價期權交易
投資者可以交易原油日歷差價期權。日歷期權是在不同的月份買進和賣出兩個原油合約。例如，一個投資者可以在買進一個12月原油合約並同時來年6月賣出它。該投資者尋求從12月到來年6月的原油價格上升中獲利。如果合約施加更長，則差價期權的波動性更大。日歷組合需要的保證金比普通交易的保證金低。例如，在2015年12月買進在2016年5月賣出的原油合約的保證金在2015年10月為850美元。這個保證金要求比直接買進或者賣出合約要低得多。原油差價期權的流動性更大，所以更容易交易。
保證金要求較低的原因是認為兩份合約之間的價格差異降低。如果發生未能預料到的影響原油價格的經濟和政治事件，很有可能合約的價格可能上升或者下降到同一程度。然而，交易日歷差價期權仍然存在巨大的風險，兩份合約之間的月份可能有價格大規模移動。投資者可能損失大量資金並被要求追加保證金。
期權套利
還有一個非常活躍的石油期貨合約期權市場。投資者可以通過買賣原油垂直期權管理風險。例如，一個投資者相信原油期貨合約的價格在12月會炒年糕50美元上升到5美元。他可以在50美元買入看漲期權並在55美元賣出，獲得750美元的溢價。這被稱為借方差價。
此次交易中投資者能賺取的最大金額是5000美元減去750的溢價和佣金以及其他費用。投資者不會損失除了這750美元溢價和佣金以及成本外的任何其他費用。這使得投資者能明確交易中處於風險的資金金額。
看跌投資者可以進行反向操作。該投資者可以在50美元賣出55美元買入。這被稱為信用差價，因為投資者在其賬戶收到750美元作為信用。如股票期權的到期日期價格低於50美元，投資者保存所有的賣出溢價，如果高於55美元，投資者將損失5000美元減去750美元的溢價，加上佣金和費用。這是投資者可能損失的最大金額。這種期權策略的有點是在時間衰減中受益，也就是期權價值隨著到期日來臨逐漸降低。
Investing in Crude Oil Futures: The Risks and Rewards
By John Edwards
Trading crude oil futures uses a high degree of leverage. It is possible for those who trade crude oil futures to make and lose substantial amounts of money in a very short period of time. The price of crude oil is notorious for its volatility. It can easily move 5 to 10% in a single trading session. Crude is especially sensitive to breaking political and economic news, as well as to weekly storage and production reports.
Trading oil futures entails a substantial amount of risk. An investor may need to meet a margin call if a position goes against him, or the position may be liquidated at a loss. However, there are some strategies that can define the amount of capital at risk. Investors who want to invest in crude oil futures should understand how they work and the risks involved.
Crude Oil Contract Specifications
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific commodity or another financial instrument at a predetermined price in the future. Futures contracts are standardized, which allows them to be traded on an exchange. Some futures contracts are settled by delivery of the physical asset, and others are settled by cash according to the final price of the contract.
A crude oil futures contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil deliverable at some point in the future, depending on the contract month. A $1 move in the price of the oil contract equals $1,000. Assume an investor is long one contract of crude oil at $50. If the price of oil goes to $48, the investor will be behind $2,000 on the position.
The contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) exchange. There are futures contracts on both light sweet crude oil and Brent crude oil. Both contracts are settled by physical delivery of the oil. Most investors do not want to be responsible for the physical delivery of this much crude oil. Investors must therefore pay attention to contract delivery and expiration dates. An investor should roll the position to another month or otherwise close out the position before expiration.
Margins for Trading Oil Futures
Futures contracts entail the use of margin for trading. The investor must place a percentage of the contract's value into his account to open a position; this is known as the initial margin. The margin serves as a financial guarantee that the buyer or seller of the contract will meet obligations under the contract's terms. The initial margin on a light sweet oil contract is around $4,500 as of October 2015. This represents about 10% of the value of an oil futures contract. The initial margins are subject to modification by the exchange depending on the price and volatility of the underlying commodity.
The investor must keep enough money in the account to maintain the position. This is known as the maintenance margin amount, which is generally a little lower than the initial margin amount. If the value of the account dips below the maintenance margin amount, the investor will receive a margin call. An investor must place more money in the account to meet the margin call and maintain the position or otherwise close the position out at a loss, which is a risk of trading futures.
Oil Spread Trading
One option for investors may be to trade calendar spreads in oil. A calendar spread is buying and selling two contracts for oil with deliveries in different months. For example, an investor may buy an oil contract for December and sell it for next June at the same time. The investor is seeking to profit from the price of oil in December going up versus the price of oil in June. If the contract months are further away, there is a greater potential volatility of the spread. Calendar spreads may require less margin than just buying or selling a single oil futures contract. For example, the initial margin required to buy a December 2015 oil contract and sell a May 2016 oil contract is $850 as of October 2015. This is a much lower margin requirement than buying or selling an oil futures contract outright. There is a great deal of liquidity in oil spreads, so they are easy to trade. These spreads are traded by oil producers, speculators and commodity funds rolling their positions.
The reason for the lower margin requirement is that there is hypothetically less volatility in the movement of the price differential between the two contracts. If there is an unexpected political or economic event that impacts the price of oil, there is a high degree of likelihood that the prices of the oil contracts will rise and fall together to some extent. However, there is still a substantial amount of risk in trading oil calendar spreads; prices between contract months have the potential to make large moves. An investor can still lose a lot of money by trading oil spreads and may be required to meet margin calls if a position goes against him.
Option Spreads
There is also a very active market for options on oil futures contracts. An investor may be able to manage his risk by buying or selling covered vertical option spreads on oil. For example, an investor may believe that the price of oil will rise from $50 to $55 on the December oil futures contract. The investor could buy the $50 call option while simultaneously selling the $55 call option for a net premium of $750. This is known as a debit spread, since the investor is paying the premium to hold the spread.
The maximum amount of money the investor can make on the position is $5,000 less the $750 in premium paid for the spread, less the commissions and other costs. The investor cannot lose any more than the $750 in premium paid plus the commissions and costs. This spread allows the investor to define the amount of capital that he is risking on the trade.
An investor who is bearish on the price of oil could flip the trade over. The investor could sell the $50 call option and buy the $55 call option for a net credit of $750, less commissions and costs. This is known as a credit spread, since the investor receives the $750 as a credit in his account. If the price of oil is below $50 upon the option expiration date, the investor gets to keep the entire amount of the sold premium. The investor cannot make any more money than this amount. However, if the price of oil is above $55 upon expiration, the investor will lose $5,000 less the $750 received for the premium, plus the commissions and costs. This is the maximum the investor can lose, which is still a substantial amount. The advantage of this type of option strategy is that it benefits from time decay, which is the loss in option value moving towards the expiration date.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/120215/investing-crude-oil-futures-risks-and-rewards.asp