Melissa Parietti
歐元是世界上交易第二廣泛的貨幣，在1999年進入市場後經歷了巨大的波動。其兌換價值在2008年達到最高點，為1：1.6。在那之後，歐元價值巨幅下降。2015年11月，歐元兌美元在1.06到1.10之間。
投資外國貨幣的最直接方式是通過外匯交易市場。外匯交易市場和股票交易市場不同，由於外匯市場的性質，投資者對沖貨幣寸頭以減小風險。
世界範圍的貨幣也像股票和債券一樣向投資者開放。這種投資方式不那麼直接同時也因為投資工具的不同帶有不同風險和回報。國内銀行有時候會提供外國貨幣的定期存款。
風險
想要進行任何金融工具的長期投資，你必須做好充分的調查以確定最有利的時間進行交易。通過進行更小份額的投資和根據市場發展增加新的份額或者投資，你將從管理貨幣或者工具的潛在表現的預見中受益。當你進行貨幣長期投資，你將失去這種獲得更有吸引力收益的能力。
歐元的波動反映歐盟成員國的經濟狀況。近來，幾個歐盟成員國，例如希臘和西班牙，經歷了嚴重的經濟危機。進行歐元的長期投資，你必須考慮對歐元價值可能有負面影響的未來債務和政治穩定事件。確定你能承受歐元多大的負面價值下降，同樣，如果歐元價值上升怎麼保持倉位。
現有的投資退出界限應該是靈活的以適應未來事件，例如一些成員國的金融危機和衰退。如果在你的投資策略關閉倉位時間之前幾年出現高度有利的退出機會，那麼你就該退出。幾年之後的合適水平是不可預見的，計劃退出時間的歐元疲軟可能使你遭受額外的損失。
不是所有的歐洲國家都加入了歐盟。立陶宛在2015年1月才加入。長期投資歐元的一個風險是你需要用當前歐元區國家經濟強度加上未加入歐元區國家經濟強度計算未來市場經濟強度，包括保加利亞、克羅地亞、捷克共和國、丹麥、匈牙利、波蘭、羅馬尼亞、瑞典和英國。
總得來說，歐元區表現出進入另一個經濟衰退的迹象。這正好和歐洲中央銀行主席Mario Draghi在2011年任職以來的反複聲明相反。2015年4月版的《世界經濟展望》稱歐盟的一些成員國正在遭受高債務、銀行疲軟、低經濟增長和低產出增長，而且當前的預測沒有展示明顯的複蘇。2013年，有些數據指出歐洲金融市場正在走向複蘇，但是最終沒有實現。如果你投入大筆資金到歐元中，做好市場變化與經濟權威人士預測相反的情況，做出不受政治人物影響的預測。
很有可能影響這些條件的是歐元區0.05%的低利率。美國在2013年和2014年經歷了比歐元區更大複蘇，美國的產出是2.4%而歐元區是0.9%。國際貨幣基金組織預測2016年美國的經濟增長3.1%而歐元區是1.5%。
回報
目前歐元並沒有處於一個良好的狀態。其兌換率反映出歐元區成員國經濟的疲軟。這不意味著歐元在未來20到30年將會持續這種狀態。長期投資最有利的是你可能從潛在的隨時發生的大規模波動中受益，你可以在歐元強勢時退出投資獲利。進行歐元長期投資的潛在重大回報很有可能是10幾年後的經濟複蘇而不是幾年。
歐盟已經向銀行註入了數以萬億的長期貸款，再融資操作，是政府債券和資產抵押債券計劃的量化寬松購買計劃。絕大多數的資金花在資產上，包括新興經濟體的資產。所有這些開支可能對歐元區有積極的影響。對投資者來說，這些措施何時和怎樣以幫助歐元區經濟的形勢出現非常重要。
在很長一段時間，都是虧損和下跌的修正階段。帶有適合未來成員國發展和經濟增長政策發展的靈活退出策略的長期歐元投資將會獲得回報。
Buying Euros as a Long-Term Investment: Risks and Rewards
By Melissa Parietti
The euro, the world's second-most commonly traded currency, has experienced significant periods of volatility since its introduction to international markets in 1999. Its strength against the dollar hit a high in July 2008, when one euro was worth $1.60. Since that time, the euro has dropped significantly in value. In November 2015, the euro traded between $1.06 and $1.10, with the value of the currency losing strength at the end of the month.
The most direct method of investing in a foreign currency is through the foreign exchange market (forex). The forex is different from the stock market; due to the interrelated nature of the currency markets, investors hedge positions in pairs of currencies to mitigate risk.
Countries worldwide also make investments such as stock shares and bonds available to foreign investors. This method of investing in currencies is less direct and also carries the risks and potential rewards associated with the specific investment vehicle. Domestic banks, at times, offer certificates of deposit (CDs) that are based in foreign currencies.
Risk
To open a long-term position into any financial instrument, you must complete adequate due diligence research to ascertain the most advantageous time to enact the transaction. By breaking investments into smaller portions and adding on to a position or opening new ones based on developments in the market, you benefit from using new insight to manage the potential performance of an instrument or a currency. When you open a long-term position in a currency, you lose this valuable ability in exchange for the pursuit of more attractive gains.
The volatility of the euro reflects the economic status of the member nations of the European Union. As of late, several nations in Europe, such as Greece and Spain, have experienced severe financial crises. By taking a long-term position in the euro, you must consider future debt and political instability issues of member nations that may negatively impact the value of the euro. Decide how much of a negative decline in the value of the euro you are willing to tolerate before exiting the position – and likewise, if the potential strengthening of currency value following a crisis warrants keeping the position.
The horizon of exit of the investment should be flexible by several years to manage future upsets such as financial crises in member nations and recessions. If a highly favorable exit is available a few years prior to the date of the planned closing of a long-term position, then your strategy should allow the position to be closed at that time. A comfort zone of several years following an unforeseen weakening of the euro at the planned time of exit would allow you to hedge against additional losses by being forced to exit when the euro is weak.
Not all European nations have entered the European Union. Lithuania only entered in January 2015. A significant risk associated with a long-term position in the euro is that you will have to project the future strength of markets currently in the eurozone in addition to the strength of nations that have yet to enter the eurozone, and use the euro as their currency, including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
Overall, the eurozone has shown signs of entering into yet another recessionary period. This runs counter to repeated statements made by the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, since he took the position in 2011. The April 2015 edition of the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that several nations in the European Union are still suffering from high debt, weak banks, low growth and low growth of output, and current projections do not point toward significant recovery. In 2013, several figures – including the IMF – made statements suggesting that a recovery in European financial markets was underway, though this is not what eventually developed. If you are placing sums of money into the euro, be prepared for market changes that are counter to the forecasts of popular economic authority figures, and make decisions without partiality to the opinions of political leaders.
Likely impacting these conditions is the euro area's low interest rate of 0.05%. The United States has experienced a recovery more significant than the euro area's in 2013 and 2014, with output at 2.4% in the U.S. and 0.9% in the euro area. The IMF's projections for 2016 set growth at 3.1% in the U.S. and 1.5% in the euro area.
Rewards
As it stands, the euro is not in good shape. Its exchange rate reflects the weakened state of the eurozone's member nations. This does not mean that the eurozone will be in such a state over the next 20 to 30 years. The most advantageous aspect of investing for the long term is that you may benefit from potentially realized large swings occurring over time, and you may exit the position when you perceive that the euro is at its strongest against the dollar. The potential for significant rewards realized by holding a long-term position in the euro is based on the likelihood of recovery over decades rather than over years.
The European Union has poured trillions into long-term loans to banks, refinancing operations, a quantitative easing purchase plan of government bonds and covered-bond programs. A vast majority of the funds spent have been on assets, including assets in emerging economies. All of this spending is likely to have a positive effect on the eurozone. For investors, it is a matter of when and how these measures will emerge in European markets as a means of helping economies and the euro.
Over long periods of time, there tend to be corrections to periods of downturn and loss. The potential rewards of investing in the euro are better-suited for a long-term position with a flexible exit to accommodate future developments in member nations and future plans announced by policymakers to support growth in production and desired rates of inflation.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/120915/buying-euros-longterm-investment-risks-and-rewards.asp?layout=orig