購買瑞士法郎進行長期投資的風險和回報

 

在2015年1月之前，瑞士法郎有匯率限制，現在已經被取消了。當時瑞士法郎和歐元的匯率限制是1.20瑞士法郎兌一歐元。自從這一限制被取消，瑞士法郎的價值開始下跌。瑞士法郎是歐洲一種重要的貨幣，由於其強度和瑞士銀行提供的低利率，吸引其他國際的公民對其進行投資和抵押貸款。

 

瑞士的政策制定者制定了一些機構監管其金融市場，包括瑞士金融監督管理局和瑞士國家銀行，他們負責瑞士的貨幣政策。在國家層面上，瑞士有一個高度透明的國家財務信息報告，而且這些信息以多語言大範圍向公衆開放以吸引外國投資者。

 

風險

對持有美元的人來說，投資瑞士法郎非常有吸引力，因為美元和瑞士法郎的匯率有短期波動。自1999年開始，這個匯率的每月平均變化為1.95%，這高於瑞士法郎和歐元平均0.85%的匯率變化。從2015年1月到2015年10月，瑞士法郎兌美元的匯率維持在一瑞士法郎兌換93到98美分之間。在長期上，瑞士法郎自2010年10月起兌美元價值下降了0.04%，自1995年起下降了15%。瑞士法郎展示出對美元週期性的強勢和疲軟。但是匯率的變化是循序漸進的，瑞士法郎最強勢的時間出現在5年強度增長之後的2001年。

 

2014年瑞士法郎最大的買家是德國、美國和法國，分別買入了總貨幣出口的21.2%、14.1%、8.5%。最近瑞士法郎價值的增加反映了瑞士央行總資產自2013年到2014年14%的增長。瑞士央行把外匯投資的貨幣從2013年的443萬億瑞士法郎增加到2014年的510萬億。

 

想要投資瑞士法郎的投資者應該理解這種持久的模式和每個月的低波動。從縱觀歷史的角度來看，瑞士法郎從1920年的6.48美元逐漸下跌，該貨幣在2014年6月達到89美分的最低點。

 

投資者目前投資瑞士法郎最大的風險是瑞士法郎價值恢複可能是伴隨歐洲整體經濟衰退的好轉。最近瑞郎的低點可能被延伸到將來。歐元區在過去五年中提供了許多過於樂觀的預測。

 

2015年11月，瑞士央行主席Thomas Jordan表示瑞郎的價值是被高估的並且可能採取幹預措施。瑞士央行當前的貨幣政策目標是實現長期結果，但是對瑞士法郎感興趣的投資者應該考慮這些措施能取得怎樣的結果。

 

Thomas Jordan的聲明表明瑞士法郎可能發生第二次修正並形成長期利率。盡管這對那些認為瑞士市場週期將進入進一步積極增長的瑞士法郎的長期投資者是個好消息，但是不能確定瑞士央行的措施會像Thomas Jordan想象的那樣成功。

 

回報

截至2015年11月，瑞士的利率是全球最低的-0.75%，之前曾停留在0利率階段多年。盡管其被成為避險貨幣，但是瑞士法郎的前景仍然不能確定。毫無疑問其整體強度掌握在瑞士銀行手中，但是匯率的下跌和其負利率使投資者的興趣下降。最近由於其他國家經濟糟糕的發展將資金投入到瑞士法郎表明投資者對未來經濟的恐懼。瑞士經濟一部分依靠對全球經濟有負面影響的危機中的反彈。投資者不應該在歐洲其他部分出現積極信號之前對瑞士法郎投入過多熱情。

 

對當前瑞士央行貨幣政策有信心的投資者的潛在回報時將產生一個穩定增長的環境。投資者正在等待由於歐洲經濟互相依賴的特點在低增長率影響每個國家之後出現歐洲經濟總體改善。

 

Buying Swiss Francs as a Long-Term Investment: Risks & Rewards 

By Melissa Parietti 

 

The Swiss franc (CHF) has long been considered a stable currency in the global economy and is often purchased by investors when the stability of other foreign currencies is at risk due to adverse economic or political environments. The franc's stability is due to measures by the Swiss Central Bank to control the currency's value and Switzerland's political and financial stability.

 

Prior to January 2015, there was a minimum floor on the franc's value, which has since been removed. The floor supported an exchange rate between the euro and the Swiss franc of 1.20 CHF per euro. Since this floor was removed, the Swiss franc's value has dropped. The Swiss franc is an important currency in Europe; its strength, combined with low interest rates offered by Swiss banks, has attracted investments and mortgages from people in other countries such as Poland and the Baltic nations.

 

Switzerland's policymakers have mandated several institutions to oversee the proper regulation of the country's financial markets, including the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FIMA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is responsible for carrying out the country's monetary policy. On the national level, Switzerland has a high degree of transparency in reporting financial information, and it makes available to the public a wide range of data in several languages to support and attract foreign investment.

 

Risks

Investment in Swiss francs for those holding American dollars is particularly attractive because there has been low short-term volatility in the exchange rate between the dollar and the Swiss franc. Since 1999, the average monthly change in the exchange rate of the dollar and the Swiss franc has been 1.95%, which is higher than the monthly change in exchange rate between the euro and the Swiss franc of 0.85%. From January 2015 to October 2015, one Swiss franc had an exchange rate between 93 cents and 98 cents in American currency. In the long term, the Swiss franc has declined in value against the dollar by 0.04% since October 2010, 45% since October 2000 and 15% since October 1995. The Swiss franc has shown cyclical periods of strength and weakness against the dollar. But movements of the exchange-rate changes have been gradual, with the strongest Swiss franc appearing in June 2001 after a five-year increase in strength.

An investor looking to place funds into the Swiss franc should do so with awareness of this enduring pattern of gradual volatility and low month-to-month volatility. An extended look at the Swiss franc shows that the currency has been on a decline from a high of $6.48 in December 1920; the currency hit a low of 89 cents in June 2014.

 

In 2014, the biggest purchasers of Swiss francs were Germany, the United States and France, with each country purchasing 21.2%, 14.1% and 8.5%, respectively, of Switzerland's total currency exports. The recent increase in strength of the Swiss franc likely reflects the increase in the SNB's total assets from 2013 to 2014 by 14% and an increase of banknote circulation by 2 trillion Swiss francs. The SNB increased the value of its foreign currency investments from 443 trillion Swiss francs to 510 trillion Swiss francs from 2013 to 2014.

 

The largest risk to investors at this time is that the time it takes the Swiss franc to regain strength will be extended in light of the overall recessionary behavior occurring in Europe. The recent low that the Swiss franc hit may be prolonged or amplified for a new record low in the near future in conjunction with poor developments in Europe. The eurozone has offered several overly optimistic projections for the future in the past five years.

 

In November 2015, SNB President Thomas Jordan stated that the Swiss franc was overvalued and that measures would be taken to intervene. The SNB's current monetary policy goals are aimed at achieving long-term results, but investors interested in the Swiss franc should consider how effective these measures might be in light of the failing economies in Europe, recessionary activity in Europe and the current negative interest rates on deposits in Switzerland. The effectiveness of a negative interest rate may be compromised when concurrently deployed with a weak European economy.

 

Jordan's statement suggests that a second correction of the Swiss franc is likely to make itself seen in the form of a low exchange rate. While this is positive news for long-term investors who may be interested in purchasing Swiss francs assuming that the nation's market cycle will promote future positive growth, it is uncertain if the measures taken by the SNB will be as successful as Jordan hopes they will be.

 

Rewards

Switzerland's interest rates are the lowest in the world as of November 2015 at -0.75%, after being stuck at 0% for several years prior. Despite retaining its reputation as a safe haven of currencies, the future outlook of the Swiss franc remains uncertain. There is little dispute of the overall strength and power wielded in European markets by Swiss banks, but the falling exchange rate of the Swiss franc in conjunction with the country's negative interest rate offers curtailed enthusiasm for investors. Recent moves to pour funds into the Swiss franc because of poor developments in other countries is a signal that investors are trading on negative fear of the future economy. Switzerland's economy depends in part on the rebound from former crises that have negatively affected global economies. Investors should not offer overly enthusiastic confidence in the Swiss franc before positive developments have hit the remainder of Europe.

 

The potential future reward for an investor exists in confidence in the SNB's current monetary policy to create an environment for long-term growth. Investors are waiting for overall improvement in European economies following low growth rates that have affected every nation in Europe due to the interdependent nature of Europe's economies.

 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/120915/buying-swiss-francs-longterm-investment-risks-rewards.asp