歐洲央行告別貨幣寬松政策

雖然歐洲央行本月發佈了比較溫和的量化寬松政策，但也給期待進一步寬松的人們留下一點安慰：行長Mario Draghi表示，在必要的情況下，歐洲央行會實施進一步量化寬松政策。但會不會在明年發佈呢？瑞士信貸的答案是：“不會。” 

要想了解原因就要先知曉央行對本次寬松政策加以限制的原因。瑞士信貸指出，歐洲央行公佈的唯一的實質性刺激政策就是將存款利率由-0.2%降至-0.3%。歐洲央行行長在上個月表達了想要“盡快”提高通脹率的意圖，很多投資者受此鼓舞，期待著央行繼續降息。在12月3日歐洲央行發佈公告後，歐元兌美元的匯率猛漲，短期的外部債券大量賣空，使得這些投資者非常失望。 

但近幾個月的經濟數據表明，歐洲並不合適採取更多的刺激性政策。一系列指標顯示歐洲大陸的經濟增長達到1.5%，高於趨勢線，瑞士信貸也認為歐洲在2016年的經濟前景會好於過去的十年。瑞士信貸歐洲經濟部門主管Neville Hill最近評論道：“現在沒有需要央行挽救的緊急情況。” 

在歐洲央行官員眼中，歐元兌美元疲軟才是萬分緊要的，由於萬衆期待的美聯儲加息，歐元兌美元持續貶值。聯邦公開市場委員會九年以來首次宣佈利率上調，在12月16日的會議中，利率上調25個基點，達到0.25%-0.5%。Hill表示，此舉有助於降低美聯儲加息的難度。

還有什麼理由會讓歐洲央行重啟量化寬松政策嗎？最有可能的原因就是通脹率過低。今年的整體通脹率已經接近於0，而核心通脹率的上升趨勢已經停止。央行預計明年的通脹率約為1%。如果核心通脹率下降或者整體通脹率沒有增加，都會促使央行重啟量化寬松政策。以上兩種情況發生的可能性還有待考證，但瑞士信貸認為核心通脹率的波動極為古怪，它不是穩定的下降趨勢，而穩定的能源價格本應促進整體通脹增加。 

推動進一步量化寬松政策的因素有三個：歐元大幅升值，油價大幅下跌或是歐元區經濟增長驟然惡化。如果沒有上述三種情況發生，歐洲央行不太可能在明年採取寬松政策。考慮到當前歐洲央行和美聯儲相反的貨幣政策，歐元區的收益曲線會變得極陡，而美國的收益曲線會趨於平坦。 

When Doves Cry: The End of QE in the ECB

While the European Central Bank announced tamer-than-expected quantitative easing measures this month, it also offered a bit of reassurance to those counting on a broader QE program: bank presidentMario Draghisaid that the ECB was prepared, if necessary, to implement further easing. But is more easing actually likely in the coming year? Credit Suisse believes the answer is “no.” 

To understand why, it’s important to look at what might have prompted the bank to limit its latest round of easing. The only substantive stimulus measure announced, Credit Suisse analysts say, was a deposit rate cut to -0.3% from -0.2%. Many investors, encouraged by comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last month about the bank being intent to raise inflation “as fast as possible,” had expected more, such as a deeper deposit rate cut. Their disappointment manifested itself in the sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar and a sell-off in short-duration peripheral bonds after the ECB’s Dec. 3 announcement. 

But the economic data coming out of Europe in recent months doesn’t support calls for more stimulus. A range of indicators suggest that the continent’s economy is growing above-trend at a pace of 1.5 percent and Credit Suisse says that the prospect for growth in the region in 2016 is as good as it’s been in a decade. “There has been no downturn for the ECB to urgently offset,”Neville Hill, Head of European Economics at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent note. 

What may have appeared urgent, at least in the eyes of ECB officials, was limiting the short-term weakness of the euro against the dollar, which — its recent slide notwithstanding — is poised to appreciate thanks to the much-anticipated interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Markets Committee announced its first rate hike in more than nine years — a quarter-point increase to a target range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent — at its Dec. 16 meeting. The ECB’s moves “may make lift-off for the Fed…a little easier,” Hill wrote. 

What, if anything, would prompt the European Central Bank to step up quantitative easing again? The most likely cause would be low inflation. Headline inflation has teetered at zero this year while core inflation’s upward trend has stalled. The ECB expects inflation to average 1% next year, but a downward trend in core inflation or no rise in headline inflation could prompt the bank to act. The likelihood of either scenario is questionable, however: Credit Suisse suspects that core inflation’s movements are erratic — rather than being indicative of a steady downward trend — while stabilizing energy prices should help push headline inflation up. 

There are three potential factors that could prompt more quantitative easing: a significant rise in the euro, a large drop in oil prices or a surprise drop in euro area growth. But without such shocks, the coming year will likely see no new easing by the ECB. In light of the current and anticipated monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, investors can also expect steeper yield curves in the euro area and a flatter one in the U.S. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/when-doves-cry-the-end-of-qe-in-the-ecb/#sthash.v3ldvu8k.dpuf