蘋果公司股價在週三跌破100美元，這是2014年10月以來從未發生過的事。華爾街因此展開了熱論，在預期增長緩慢的2016財年，蘋果股票是否被高估了。
去年夏天，太平洋證券分析家Andy Hargreaves預測，蘋果的iPhone產品會在2016財年逐漸疲軟，但他告訴投資者：“這不是問題。”九月發佈的iPhone 6S和6S Plus不能算作新產品，只能算作產品升級。此外，蘋果提高了iPhone在中國的價格，因此2015財年的收益是難以匹敵的。
本週，據華爾街日報報道，蘋果減少了中國地區的供應量，這對整個供應鍊都產生了影響。投資者因此感到恐慌，蘋果股價驟跌至99.87美元，在週三收盤時恢複至100.70美元。
在美國CNBC頻道，專家們認為跌破100美元是暫時的，因此展開了熱論讨論。投資者們最在意的是，蘋果股票究竟是價值股票還是價值陷阱，究竟是當前價格低於同類公司股票還是蘋果股票會繼續下跌。
Wedbush Securities的股票交易主管Ian Winer是個看跌主義者，他認為蘋果的好日子已經過去了。
Winer曾在CNBC表示：“蘋果股票是支科技股，也是成長股，它的市值約為6000億美元。這不是一支尚未成長的股票，它的成長期已經過去了。這是支科技股，以我的經驗來看，科技領域的價值股是行不通的。”
確實，在2016財年，蘋果增長的大步伐正在逐漸放緩。最大的問題是，iPhone的下一個版本能否引領新一年的銷售狂潮。蘋果手表的銷量也低於華爾街的預期。
根據FactSet Research的數據，華爾街一致認為蘋果公司2016財年的總收益會達到2419億美元，較2015財年的1828億美元增長3.5%。2015財年收益增長了27.8%，而2016財年的增長可能會縮水至個位數。
而另一些人認為，蘋果持有的現金雖然是美國公司中最多的，但它的本質就是一支便宜股。華爾街日報反駁道，蘋果iPhone的預期已經被低估，雖然投資者一直迷戀於蘋果股票，就像亞馬遜和奈飛公司一樣，但蘋果的盈利能力不容小觑。日報中寫道：“蘋果公司上一季度的收益比兩家公司創立以來的全部收益之合還要多。”
但是投資者還是希望股票上漲，尤其是科技股。在蘋果公司展現出下一個大成果之前，投資者都會對其持有懷疑的態度。再次強調，投資者會加倍關註下一個iPhone產品。iPhone 7會不會發佈，發佈後反響如何，這些問題至關重要。2016財年是它們自己挖的坑嗎？還是說增長放緩意味著一個新的常態？
Is Apple a value stock or a value trap?
Apple Inc.’s stock dipped briefly under $100 on Wednesday, a territory not seen since October 2014, fueling a debate on Wall Street over whether or not it is overvalued, amid ongoing expectations of slower growth in fiscal 2016.
Last summer, Pacific Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves predicted that Apple’sAAPL, -1.96% iPhone units were likely to decline in fiscal 2016, “and that’s OK,” he wrote in a note to investors. The most recent iPhone entrants that hit the market in September — the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus — were seen as improvements but not major design upgrades. In addition, Apple had a big uptick with the iPhone in China, also making fiscal 2015 a tough compare.
This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple scaled back on orders for iPhones from its suppliers in China, which has had ramifications throughout the supply chain. This news rattled investors and Apple fell in intraday trading to $99.87 but recovered, closing at $100.70 on Wednesday.
On CNBC, though, the drop below $100, however temporary, fueled a debate among the pundits. The core of the issue for many investors is whether Apple is a value stock or a value trap — is the stock trading at a value less than its peers or a stock that appears to be cheap, based on fundamentals, including its vast cash holdings, but never recovers to its estimated full value.
One of the more bearish investors, Ian Winer, director of equities trading at Wedbush Securities, said he believes Apple’s best days are behind it.
“It’s a tech stock that was a growth stock that still has a market cap of about $600 billion,” Winer said earlier on CNBC. “It’s not like you are buying a stock that has all this growth in front of it. You are buying a stock where the best days are over. It’s a tech stock, and value stocks in tech just do not work in my experience.”
Indeed, Apple’s spectacular growth is slowing in fiscal 2016. The big question is whether or not the next version of the iPhone will eventually propel another year of barnstorming quarters, if and when the iPhone 7 is launched. The Apple Watch could also eventually take off, but so far the smartwatch’s sales have been slower than many on Wall Street had anticipated.
For fiscal 2016, which ends in September, the consensus on Wall Street, according to FactSet Research, is for Apple to see total revenue of $241.9 billion, up 3.5% from $182.8 billion in 2015. That single-digit growth is a steep tumble from 2015’s growth rate, when revenue surged 27.8%.
Others argue that Apple, which has the largest pile of cash held by a U.S. company, is a cheap stock. The Wall Street Journal argued that its current market value has already baked in the lowered expectations for the iPhone, and that while investors are enamored with growth, such as the Street’s current infatuation over Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.18% and Netflix Inc. NFLX, +9.31% Apple’s earnings power should not be discounted. “Apple earned more in its last quarter than those two companies have in their entire existence — combined,” the Journal wrote.
But investors do want growth, especially in tech. Until Apple starts showing some serious growth again, there will be an increasing number of investors who argue it is veering close to a value trap. Once again, investors will be focused on Apple’s next yet-to-be launched iPhone and whether or not it will be its next big thing. Will fiscal 2016 represent a trough it digs itself out of, or does this slower growth represent a new normal?
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
原文地址：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-apple-a-value-stock-or-a-value-trap-2016-01-0