James Garrett Baldwin
由於人們一直期待的美聯儲加息，美元在2015飙升。與此同時，許多中央銀行都削弱了他們的貨幣以刺激出口增長。由於這個和其他一些原因，許多主要的經濟體的貨幣兌美元都出現大幅下跌。
全球經濟事件和地區事件能相對一種貨幣削弱另一種貨幣。例如，通脹劇烈會影響消費者的購買力並使他們的儲蓄貶值。如果一個國家的主要出口產品是大宗商品，大宗商品價格的下降將會影響他們的經濟。
本文將列舉出2015年兌美元大幅下跌的七種主要貨幣。
2015年各國貨幣的表現
新西蘭元：2015年由於大宗商品價格的下跌和經濟數據的推動使新西蘭元兌美元下跌了12.21%。新西蘭元的下跌主要歸功於奶制品大幅下跌。2014年，奶制品占新西蘭前20種出口商品的28.5%。
南非蘭特：2015年，由於大宗商品價格的下跌和中國經濟增長的放緩，南非貨幣兌美元下跌了32.31%。南非是非洲工業化程度最高的國家，但是很大程度上依賴其最大的出口目的地中國。雖然經濟增長被限制，但是該國也正在經歷新一輪的通脹壓力。2015年該國的通脹率為4.7%。2015年11月，南非央行提高利率以應對通脹。根據《金融時報》的報道，滞漲已經嚴重影響該國經濟。但是最重要的是，該國是硬資產的主要出口國，而這些大宗商品價格在2015年都有大幅下跌。根據最近的數據，黃金占該國出口的18.5%，而黃金價格在2015年下跌約10%。
挪威克朗：油價的劇烈下跌重創了挪威貨幣，因為該國的主要出口產品是石油。挪威石油出口量巨大，油價下跌給其經濟帶來劇烈的影響。根據該國最近的交易量，該國出口了價值948億美元的石油和礦物燃料，大約占2015年出口的64.42%。挪威克朗在2015年兌美元下跌了17.48%。
俄羅斯盧佈：由於經濟持續受到制裁和該國經濟缺乏多樣性，俄羅斯經濟繼續處於泥潭中。俄羅斯經濟嚴重依賴石油和天然氣出口，這些大宗商品占該國社會預算的50%多。石油和天然氣價格的下跌使俄羅斯盧佈在今年跌入低谷。到目前為止，俄羅斯盧佈在2015年兌美元下跌18.03%。而俄羅斯經濟在未來還面臨進一步的挑戰。該國以原油價格每桶50美元的預期準備其2016年的預算。然而，佈倫特原油價格徘徊在40美元左右，該國的經濟發展部長Aleksey Ulyukaev表示新的預算將會將石油價格估計到40美元每桶。雖然這個數字不能使經濟不穩定，但是將會阻止GDP在下一年的積極增長。這也意味著在2016年盧佈對美元將受到進一步壓制。
加元：由於石油價格下跌，加元兌美元在2015年9月達到11年來的最低點。在2015年，加元兌美元下跌19.49%，加元下跌的直接原因是石油和相關產品是該國的主要出口產品。石油出口占加拿大總共4390億美元出口的18%。此外，精煉石油占4.2%，石油氣占2.9%。礦產品出口1300億美元，占總出口的29.6%。
澳元：澳大利亞是另一個受大宗產品出口影響巨大的國家。但是和加拿大不同，澳大利亞的經濟依賴金屬和農產品的出口。其中包括鐵礦石、黃金、羊毛、鋁、小麥和加工精煉這些產品的機械。中國是其最大的出口目的地，其經濟增長也與澳大利亞經濟緊密相關。大宗商品價格下降和中國經濟增長放緩減少了該國的出口，因此其貨幣下跌。2015年澳元兌美元下跌了11.01%。
巴西雷亞爾：巴西曾一度進入全球最先進工業化程度最高的國家的行列。但是持續依賴能源產品開發和缺乏政治改革推動的環境使該國經濟衰退貨幣下跌。石油和其他大宗商品價格的下跌也抑制了該國的長期前景。巴西雷亞爾在2015年兌美元下跌了40.40%，並且巴西2015年通脹率在6%以上。
總結
在2015年，由於全球投資者蜂擁湧向美元避險使美元上漲劇烈。美聯儲提高利率和其他央行的刺激性措施使美元兌其他貨幣進一步飙升。展望未來，由於美聯儲希望在未來幾年利率正常化，美元可能進一步上漲。
Weakest Currencies against the U.S. Dollar in 2015
By James Garrett Baldwin
The U.S. dollar surged in 2015, strengthened by the long-expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, many central banks around the world weakened their own currencies, in part to stimulate export growth. As a result of these and other trends, many leading economies saw their currencies decline against the dollar as a benchmark.
Global macroeconomic events as well as local economic challenges can weaken the value one currency in relation to another currency. For example, rampant inflation drastically affects consumers' ability to buy goods for a consistent price and devalues their savings. Falling prices of a certain commodity (most commodities are priced in the U.S. dollar) affect a nation’s currency if the commodity is one of its primary exports.
This article provides a breakdown of the seven of the worst-performing currencies of 2015 as measured against the U.S. Dollar.
How Currencies Performed in 2015
New Zealand Dollar: In 2015, a downturn in commodity prices and economic data pushed the New Zealand dollar down 12.21% against the U.S. dollar. The poor fate of the New Zealand dollar can be attributed to a sharp decline in dairy prices. In 2014, dairy products comprised 28.5% of the top 20 commodity exports from the New Zealand market, according the the country’s most recent trade data.
South African Rand: In 2015, the currency of South Africa has declined by 32.31% against the U.S. dollar thanks to declining commodity prices and exposure to slowing growth in the Chinese economy. South Africa is the most industrialized nation in Africa, but it relies on China as its top export destination. While economic growth has been stifled, the country is also experiencing a bout of inflationary pressures. For 2015, inflation levels rose to 4.7%. In November 2015, South Africa's central bank raised interest rates to counter fears of inflation. According to the Financial Times, stagflation (a combination of inflation, low economic growth and high unemployment) has gripped the nation’s economy. But most importantly, the country is a primary exporter of hard assets like gold, platinum and iron alloys and this year saw a steep decline in prices for these commodities. For example, 18.5% of the nation’s exports are in gold, according to the country’s most recent trade data. Meanwhile, gold prices have declined more than 10% year-to-date.
Norwegian Krone: A slump in oil prices has hammered the national currency of Norway, as the country relies significantly on crude exports to finance its government. Norway’s export volume in crude oil is massive, suggesting a troubling level of specialization to its economy and great vulnerability to falling crude prices. According to the nation’s most recent trade volumes, the nation exported roughly $94.18 billion in oil and mineral fuels, which represented roughly 64.42% of its total exports for the year. Meanwhile, the krone is down 17.48% for the year against the U.S. Dollar.
Russian Ruble: The Russian economy continues to struggle due to ongoing sanctions against many financial leaders in the country and the nation's lack of economic diversity. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil-and-gas exports, and these commodities account for more than 50% of the nation's social budget. Declining oil-and-gas prices have pummeled the ruble this year. To date, the ruble is off 18.03% against the greenback in 2015. Further challenges lie ahead for the Russian economy. The nation had prepared its 2016 budget with expectations of $50 per barrel prices. However, as Brent crude hovers below $40, the country's Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev says that the new budget will be revised to include a $40-per-barrel estimate. While that figure is unlikely to foster economic instability, Ulyukaev says that it will prevent the nation's gross domestic product from turning positive in the year ahead. It will also mean further suppression on the ruble in 2016 against the dollar.
Canadian Dollar: The Canadian dollar slipped to an 11-year low in September 2015 as weakening oil prices weighed down the global commodity-producing nation. For the year, the Canadian dollar is down 19.49% against the U.S. dollar. The currency’s downturn is linked directly to the fact that oil and related petroleum products are the country’s chief export. Crude oil exports comprise 18% of Canada's $439 billion exports. In addition, refined petroleum comprises 4.2% and petroleum gas (2.9%). Mineral products represent $130 billion or 29.6% of its total export levels.
Australian Dollar: The Australian economy is another financial powerhouse that is heavily dependent on commodity exports. But unlike Canada, which relies heavily on petrochemical products, Australia's economy is boosted by the exports of metals and agricultural products. This includes iron ore, gold, wool, alumina, wheat and the machinery needed to produce and refine these commodities. Australia is also closely tied to the economic growth of China, which is its largest export market. The combined cool down in commodity prices and news that China's economy is growing at a lower rate than its expected benchmark has weighed down the nation's exports, and thus its currency. In 2015, the Aussie dollar is off 11.01% against the U.S. Dollar.
Brazilian Real: Brazil’s economy was once expected to evolve into one of the world’s most advanced and industrialized economies. But the nation’s continued reliance on resource development and a lack of political reform fueled conditions that produced a sharp economic downturn and falling national currency. Falling oil and other commodity prices have dampened the nation’s long-term outlook. The nation’s currency, the real, is off 47.40% against the U.S. dollar, and inflation is above 6% on the year.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. dollar has seen remarkable strength in 2015 as investors around the world flocked to the greenback for security. An expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve complemented by greater stimulus measures by other central banks around the world have sent the dollar soaring against rival currencies. Looking forward, the dollar is expected to experience more gains as the Federal Reserve moves toward rate normalization in the coming years.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/010516/weakest-currencies-against-us-dollar-2015.asp