俄羅斯經濟在2016年將會惡化到什麼程度？

Ted Meyer  2016年1月6日

石油價格的持續下降成為了美國經濟在新一年增長的部分原因，然而在俄羅斯情況卻沒有這麼樂觀。由於其經濟嚴重依賴石油和天然氣的出口，石油價格下跌已經重創俄羅斯經濟。此外，俄羅斯盧佈在2015年下半年持續貶值，而且俄羅斯經濟在11月出現了幾個月增長之後的萎縮。所有的這些訊息引出一個問題：俄羅斯經濟在2016年會崩潰嗎？

石油價格下跌，盧佈貶值

在年末，石油價格下跌到37美元每桶，而2015年春天時約60美元每桶。石油和天然氣出口占俄羅斯GDP的44%，因此，盧佈在全年中持續下跌。年尾時跌到73.2盧佈兌1美元。最重要的是，在幾個月的微小增長之後，俄羅斯經濟在11月出現下跌，在第三季度末，俄羅斯GDP與上一年同期相比下降4.1%。簡而言之，幾乎沒有俄羅斯經濟在2016年能變強的信號。

任何試圖對2016年俄羅斯經濟的預測大部分都根據對石油價格的預測，然而不幸的是這些預測都很悲觀。雖然一些人認為石油價格在2016年將會有些好轉，但是油價在2015年下半年的下跌非常巨大，而且不可能在短期內恢復到更高的水平。

現在的石油價格下跌主要是因為供應過剩。在這方面，主要的原因是石油輸出國組織國家拒絕削減原油產量。12月在維也納的會議上，12個石油輸出國組織國家的代表未能就削減原油產量達成共識。國際原油價格的上漲主要依賴供應的減少，除非石油輸出國組織能控制產量否則價格回升不太可能實現。

但是原油價格下跌也存在需求方面的問題，主要是因為中國需求的下降。這有一部分原因是經濟增長放緩，這一情況在近期將會持續。但是中國對石油需求的下降不僅僅是因為其經濟增長速度放緩。在去年與美國簽訂的全球氣候變化協定中，中國將致力於永久削減石油消耗。即使中國在2016年經濟增長增速，削減二氧化碳排放的長期計劃將限制中國對石油的需求。

雖然石油價格不全受俄羅斯控制，他們也沒有做出應有的努力控制石油價格。雖然俄羅斯的石油供應遠低於石油輸出國組織，但是俄羅斯仍然是一個巨大的供應問題。在過去兩個月中，俄羅斯的石油開採又創下了新的記錄，嚴重加劇了當前市場的供應過剩。雖然俄羅斯本身遭受到油價下跌的嚴重影響，他們卻使當前的問題更加嚴重。

這對俄羅斯能源和財政官員來說是個非常困難的情況。由於石油出口在其收入占得比例非常大，俄羅斯生產商只能提高產量以彌補價格的下跌。但是與此同時，由於現在的需求不足，他們輸入石油的增加使問題更加嚴峻。

不幸的是，俄羅斯經濟現在的下跌只是由於經濟建設的不成功。俄羅斯對石油的依賴沒有石油輸出國組織國家那麼嚴重，但是其他能增長的闆塊非常有限。普京在國際政治中持續強硬導致了大多數西方國家的嚴重制裁，此外，俄羅斯對貸款機構和石油生產商進行了多年的經濟援助。所有這些都使俄羅斯經濟進一步惡化。

總結

許多經濟體都能經受住這些問題，但是俄羅斯由於其結構性問題可能很難擺脫困境。普京在國際舞台上的強硬態度短期看起來不會消失，俄羅斯對石油出口的依賴也一樣。即使石油價格能夠回升，俄羅斯在2016年的經濟前景也非常嚴峻。

How Bad Will It Get for Russia in 2016? 

By Ted Meyer | January 06, 2016 

While the continued free fall of oil prices has contributed in part to another year of growth for the United States economy, the picture is much less rosy in Russia. With an economy that is highly dependent on oil and gas exports, the shrinking oil prices have hit Russia hard. Furthermore, the Russian ruble (RUB) has steadily weakened in the second half of 2015, and in November the Russian GDP shrank after a few months of incremental growth. All of this bad news begs a question: is Russia’s economy headed for collapse in 2016?

Sliding Oil, Sliding Ruble

At the year's end, the price of crude oil had fallen to $37 per barrel, down from about $60 per barrel in spring 2015. Oil and gas exports make up about 44% of the Russian GDP, and consequently, the ruble has tumbled all year; at year's end, it had fallen to 73.2 rubles to the dollar. On top of that, the Russian economy contracted in November after a few months of inconsequential growth—by the end of the third quarter, Russia’s GDP was down 4.1% from a year ago. In short, there are almost no strong indicators for Russia going into 2016.

Any attempts to predict the trajectory of the Russian economy in 2016 rest largely on projections of oil prices, and unfortunately for Russia, the projections are not strong. While some believe that oil is due for a turnaround sometime in 2016, the price collapse in the second half of 2015 was precipitous, and there are a number of reasons to believe that it won't get better anytime soon. 

The oil slowdown is largely a result of a current glut in supply. In this respect, one of the biggest problems has been the continued apparent refusal of OPEC nations to slow their production of crude oil. At a December meeting in Vienna, representatives from the 12 OPEC nations failed to agree on a drop in production levels despite the nearly 18-month collapse in oil prices. Any recovery in global oil prices is largely contingent upon a reduction in supply, and until OPEC asserts control over productions levels a price rebound is probably unlikely. 

But oil collapse also has demand-side problems, largely related to a major shrinkage in Chinese consumption. This is partly as a result of their slowing growth, which is widely projected to continue for the near future. But the Chinese decrease in oil demand isn't just related to their economic slowdown. Between last year’s joint climate change agreement with the United States and the stipulations of the recent Paris agreements, China seems committed to a permanent slowdown in their consumption of oil. Even if China’s economy starts growing more quickly in 2016, the long-term plan to reduce China’s carbon footprint indicates a long-term downturn in demand for oil from what has been one of its biggest consumers.

A Formula for Failure

While the global price of oil isn’t entirely in Russia’s control, they are also not doing their share to help solve the problem. Russia contributes far less to the global oil supply than the collective nations of OPEC, but Russia is nevertheless a big part of the supply problem. For the last two months, Russian oil producers have been pumping out record amounts of oil, seriously exacerbating the current supply glut in the oil market. Even as Russia is suffering the effects of the dropping oil prices, they are simultaneously making the problem even worse. 

This is a difficult situation for Russian energy and finance officials. With such a high percentage of revenue coming from oil sales, Russian producers have little choice but to ramp up production to make up for the decline in prices. But at the same time, they are making the problem much worse by continuing to flood the market with a product for which there simply isn’t enough demand right now.

Unfortunately for Russia, the current slowdown is simply the result of an economy that isn’t built for success. Russia’s dependence on oil doesn’t quite put on par with truly single-industry countries like many of the OPEC nations, but they have very few options for growth in other sectors. The persistent recalcitrance of Vladimir Putin on the global political stage has led to a series of stringent economic sanctions from most Western countries; furthermore, Russia has spent much of the year bailing out both lending institutions and oil producers, tapping into one of the nation's sovereign wealth funds early in 2015 to that end. All of this has backed Russia further into a corner.

The Bottom Line

Many economies could weather some of these problems, but one with Russia’s structural problems can hardly be expected to do so. Putin’s quarrelsome demeanor on the world stage doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon, nor does Russia’s dependence on oil exports. Even if oil prices do eventually pick up, the 2016 prognosis for the Russian economy looks very grim. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010616/how-bad-will-it-get-russia-2016.asp