這些貨幣在2016年將會面臨一場災難嗎？

Andrew Beattie   2016年1月22日

一些貨幣可能在2016年受到致命打擊。

澳元和加元

大宗商品貨幣已經處於低迷階段，但是正如新聞報道中說的，他們現在正處於一個不上不下的位置。澳元和加元已經隨著大宗商品的需求降低而貶值。需求降低的一部分原因是因為石油供應過剩，但是更大的一部分原因是因為中國和其他金磚國家經濟增長放緩。這些新興經濟體增長放緩對大宗商品有重大影響，因為他們的增長階段對煤炭、礦石和石油等大宗商品需求量巨大。

沒有需求，大宗商品的價值就會下降，那些受大宗商品支撐的貨幣價值會隨之下降。在某些情況下，貨幣價值的下降可以刺激這些國家經濟的其他領域，如農業或者制造業。但是在整體效果上，其他行業的增長不足以彌補大宗商品貨幣國家在大宗商品貶值上受到的損失。目前，澳大利亞和加拿大都因為大宗商品價格低迷導致貨幣疲軟，而且這種趨勢將會在2016年持續。

雷亞爾和盧佈

俄羅斯和巴西都被預測將會陷入經濟衰退，他們的貨幣現在正在反映出這一預測。巴西是大宗商品價格下跌的一個受害者，其能源投資和礦業開採的回報都受到影響。和其他金磚國家一樣，巴西的經濟增長速度減緩明顯，而雷亞爾正在為此付出代價。

俄羅斯的情況與石油下跌對盧佈的嚴重影響類似。特別的地方是無止境的欲望使情況更加糟糕。俄羅斯和烏克蘭的沖突和在叙利亞問題上採取的態度使美國和歐洲加大對其制裁。除非石油價格劇烈反彈，否則盧佈還將繼續下跌，因為普京將不會改變他長期以來持有的態度。

人民幣

把人民幣的持續貶值稱之為一場災難有點誇張。和大宗商品貨幣不一樣，人民幣疲軟使中國經濟在國際更具有競争力。然而另一方面是中國公民持有資本的國際購買力受到嚴重打擊。許多長期投資人民幣的交易者發現隨著政府對貨幣管理的轉變和新的不穩定性推動許多交易將以人民幣作為基礎貨幣，他們將獲得許多交易機會。

總結

帶有任何預測的警告的基準條件都會改變。也許伊朗的石油供應將使價格更低，或者地區沖突將限制產量，兩者都有可能，但是沒人知道將會發生什麼。因此，加元、澳元、盧佈、雷亞爾和人民將會隨著美元的強勁而繼續疲軟。

How 2016 Could Be A Disaster for These Currencies 

By Andrew Beattie | January 22, 2016 

Some currencies that might be in for a kick in the teeth in 2016. 

The AUD and CAD

The commodity currencies have already taken a beating, but as they probably say in the mafia, why stop at kneecaps when there are still all those fingers and toes. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar - among others - have depreciated against the U.S. dollar as the demand for commodities like crude oil has waned. Part of this waning demand, of course, is the glut of oil, but there is also a larger story in the slowing growth in China and the other BRIC nations. This slowing growth in the emerging economies has an outsized impact on commodities as their growth phase is typically driven by increased production that requires a constant stream of coal, ore, oil and so on.

Without that demand, the commodity values drop and the currencies more or less backed by those commodities weaken in response. In some cases, this drop in currency can stimulate other sectors of the economies of these nations, such as agriculture or manufacturing. That said, on an overall effect, the wins for other sectors are usually not enough to replace the losses for the commodity sectors which is why these currencies are known as commodity currencies in the first place. Right now, both Australia and Canada have seen their currencies weakening as sectors that have driven steady economic growth struggle with low prices, and this trend looks to continue into 2016. 

The Real and Ruble

Brazil and Russia are both forecasted to deepen into recession and their currencies reflect that prediction right now. Brazil is a victim of the commodity slide that has affected both investment in its energy sector and mining industry returns. The market was already a bit sour over the real (BRL) and Brazil in general for reasons ranging from the unrest and risk around hosting the olympics to the Petrobras scandal that unfolded in late 2014 and 2015. Along with the rest of the BRIC nations, Brazil’s growth has hit a significant speed bump and the Real is paying the price.

Russia is in a similar situation with the oil price severely impacting the performance of the ruble. What makes Russia unique is a seemingly unending appetite for making things worse. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and the position it has taken in Syria aren’t expediting the removal of the sanctions from the EU and the United States. The ruble will continue to take a kicking unless energy rebounds hard because Putin is unlikely to change the course that has kept him in power this long.

The Yuan

It is a bit of a stretch to call a continuing weakening of the yuan a disaster. Unlike the commodity currencies, big sections of the Chinese economy become more globally competitive as the yuan weakens. The flipside of that, however, is that the cash assets of Chinese citizens take a hit as does their international purchasing power. Many traders who have stayed long the yuan saw their bets suddenly turn on them with the government shift in managing the currency and the new instability may push many deals from using the yuan as a base currency.

The Bottom Line

There is always the caveat with any kind of forecast that the base conditions used can (and will) change. Maybe the addition of Iran’s oil to the global supply will push prices lower or maybe a regional conflict curbs production - both are in the realm of possibility but no one really knows. As it stands now, the pain will continue for the CAD, AUD, RUB, BRL and CNY with the USD continuing to stay strong against all five.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/012216/how-2016-could-be-disaster-these-currencies.asp