美聯儲維持聯邦基金利率不變

美聯儲在2016年1月的會議中決定維持匯率不變。

聯邦公開市場委員會自12月會議以來獲得的信息顯示，雖然去年年底經濟增長放緩，但勞動力市場環境仍在進一步改善。近幾個月中，家庭開支和商業固定資產投資皆出現穩步增長，房地產行業也有進一步改善，但淨出口逐漸疲軟，庫存投資也有所減慢。近來的勞動市場指標都表明，勞力資源浪費的情況正在逐漸減少。通脹率低於委員會2%的長期目標，在一定程度上反映出能源價格的下降和進口非能源產品價格的下降。基於市場的通脹補償指標進一步下滑，一些調查顯示近幾個月較長期的通脹預期變動不大。 

委員會將依照法定的目標，促進就業最大化並維持物價穩定。委員會目前預計，隨著貨幣政策立場的逐步調整，經濟活動將繼續溫和擴張，就業市場指標將繼續增強。通脹率在短期之内仍將保持在較低水平，能源價格進一步下滑是原因之一。隨著能源和進口價格下挫的暫時性影響以及就業市場的進一步增強，通脹率預計在中期升至2%。委員會將繼續密切關註全球經濟和金融市場發展，並評估他們對就業市場和通脹的影響，以及經濟前景風險的平衡性。

考慮到經濟前景，委員會決定維持聯邦基金利率在0.25-0.5%的目標區間内。貨幣政策立場將保持寬松，有助於就業市場狀況的進一步改善，並推動通脹率回升至2%。 

在決定調整聯邦基金利率目標區間的時機和規模時，委員會將對就業最大化以及2%的通脹目標的現實經濟條件和預期條件進行評估。該評估需要將多方因素考慮在内，其中包括就業市場狀況數據、通脹壓力和通脹預期指標，以及金融發展和國際發展狀況等。鑒於目前通脹率仍未達到2%，委員會將密切監控通脹率的實際進展和預期進展。委員會預計，經濟條件的改善只能保證聯邦基金利率的逐步增加，而聯邦基金利率可能在很長時間内維持在預期水平以下。但決定聯邦基金利率的是真實的數據和未來的經濟前景。 

委員會在努力維持現行政策，將機構債券、機構抵押證券和到期拍賣的國債進行再投資，在聯邦基金利率恢複正常水平之前，他們會一直這樣做。委員會可以通過這一政策持有龐大的長期證券倉位，這有助於維持寬松的金融市場狀況。 

Text of Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its January 2016 meeting. Here’s what the Fed said in its public statement.

 “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at moderate rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft and inventory investment slowed. A range of recent labor market indicators, including strong job gains, points to some additional decline in underutilization of labor resources. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook. 

Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. 

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. 

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.” 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-federal-reserve-decision-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-2016-01-27