Elvis Picardo 2016年1月7日
自從2015年以來對全球經濟的破壞性影響越來越多，貨幣已經變成了“搖尾巴狗”。在這方面2015年有兩個關鍵，即美元對所有主要貨幣升值和2015年夏天人民幣突然貶值導致全球股市快速回調。由於人民幣的再次貶值，全球市場經歷了多年以來最惡劣的新年第一週，預計2016年的貨幣危機將會繼續，重點在下面四種貨幣。
人民幣
美元已經獲得了外匯市場的統治地位，但是近幾個月人民幣引起了全球市場的擔憂。人民幣不是匯率由市場力量決定的浮動貨幣，而其對包括美元在内的一系列主要匯率由中國央行使用一個管制浮動系統決定。在到2014年的10年期間中國已經允許人民幣的逐漸升值，以滿足美國政策制定者為了抑制對中國激增的貿易逆差而進行性的人民幣升值的強力要求。然而，在2014年1月達到對美元價值最高之後，人民幣隨著美元強勢而逐漸貶值。
為什麼市場對2015年8月11日人民幣對美元1.8%和在2016年的第一週中8天（包括1月7日0.5%的貶值）貶值1.4%使人民幣達到五年來的最低點如此慌亂呢？原因有許多。首先，中國使人民幣貶值表明經濟其實弱於官方給出的數據。其次，人民幣貶值使中國出口商品更加便宜從而增加全球通貨緊縮力量。最後，可能會引起一系列貨幣的競争性貶值以便和人民幣競争。所有這些因素都對全球經濟和其增長前景有負面影響。總體而言，現在以6.65交易的人民幣兌美元將在2016占中心位置。
加元
加元給大家最深的印象是在2015年兌美元貶值16%，在16中主要貨幣中表現為第三糟糕，而在三年中貶值為創記錄的28%。2015年的貨幣劇烈貶值是一系列疲軟因素的結果，其中包括加拿大上半年的經濟衰退、全球經濟增長放緩、加拿大央行的兩次利率下調、大宗商品價格下降和石油價格暴跌30%。
這些因素對加元施加的阻力在2016年很容易增加。加拿大經濟被預計將受益於貨幣和財政刺激以及貨幣疲軟，世界其他地方的強勁（如加拿大最大的貿易夥伴美國、印度）和另外的溫和複蘇（歐洲、日本）將會抵消中國經濟增長放緩的影響。非能源出口也在增加。11月，受摩托車和零件銷售增長5.9%達到79億美元的影響，出口在持續下降3個月之後增長0.4%達到433億加元，汽車出口也在過去一年增加24%。
加拿大央行在2016年下調利率的幾率為歷史最低的0.25%，這個數據正在增加，因為這個幾率將在加拿大和全球經濟不景氣時給加元帶來壓力。然而貨幣交易者對加元在2016年回升持樂觀態度。彭博社的調查顯示2016年末加元即期匯率平均預測為1.33（75美分），而現在的匯率為1.4050（約71美分）。
歐元
希臘政治危機再一次加劇了對歐元區未來的擔憂，歐元在2015年上半年遭受了投機性攻擊。該貨幣引起人們的關註是因為和人民幣一樣意想不到的貶值，到2015年對美元貶值10.2%。由於對歐洲央行主席擴大擴大貨幣刺激措施的預期，歐元12月在1.05美元左右徘徊，但是因為歐洲央行的措施沒有預期的劇烈，其隨後反彈。雖然一些外匯交易者認為歐元將在2016年跌到與美元平價，但是彭博社的調查參與者認為只會有小幅貶值，從現在1.08跌到1.06.
巴西雷亞爾
巴西雷亞爾是2015年表現最糟糕的貨幣，兌美元下跌33%，使其自2010年以來兌美元下跌58%。雷亞爾在9月標準普爾把巴西的信用評級列入垃圾之後達到4.25雷亞爾兌1美元的歷史最低點。企業和消費者信心繼續下跌，巴西的股指在1月的的全球抛售風潮中幾乎到達七年最低點，雷亞爾在2016可能很難恢複。事實上，如果2016年大宗商品和能源價格繼續下跌，雷亞爾可能跌入新低。
總結
這四種貨幣在2016年將會受到廣泛關註，尤其是人民幣。
Four Currencies Under the Spotlight in 2016
By Elvis Picardo, CFA | Updated January 27, 2016
Currencies have become the “tail that wags the dog,” in terms of the increasingly disruptive impact they have had on the global economy since 2015. Two key developments in 2015 stand out in this regard—the dollar's relentless advance against every major currency, and in particular its surge against currencies of commodity exporters; and the yuan's shock devaluation over the summer that led to a short and sharp correction in global equities. With global markets having their worst start in years after China again devalued the yuan in the first week of January, expect currency turmoil to continue in 2016, with the spotlight on these four currencies.
Chinese Yuan
The dollar may be reigning supreme in forex markets, but in recent months it's the Chinese yuan that's been the focus of global angst. The yuan is not a floating currency whose exchange rate is determined by market forces; rather, China's central bank—the People's Bank of China (PBOC)—uses a "managed float" system to determine its rate against a basket of managed currencies including the U.S. dollar. China had been allowing the yuan to appreciate gradually for a 10-year period that ended in 2014, partly in response to strident calls from U.S. lawmakers for yuan revaluation in order to curb the nation's soaring trade deficit with China. However, since reaching its strongest ever level of just above six to the dollar in January 2014, the yuan has been allowed to creep lower as the dollar runs rampant.
So why were markets so rattled by the yuan's record 1.8% devaluation on August 11, 2015, and an eight-day depreciation of 1.4% in the first week of January 2016 (including a 0.5% devaluation on January 7) that took the currency to its lowest in almost five years? For a number of reasons. Firstly, the willingness of China to let the yuan trade lower indicates that the economy may be even weaker than the official figures suggest. Secondly, a lower yuan would result in cheaper exports from China and intensify deflationary forces in the global economy. And finally, it may spur a cycle of competitive devaluations as nations depress their currencies to compete with the yuan. All these factors have negative implications for the global economy and its growth prospects. Overall, expect the yuan, which currently trades at 6.56 to the dollar, to continue occupying center-stage in 2016.
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar—or "loonie" as it is known in the forex world—plummeted 16% versus the greenback in 2015, the third-worst performance of 16 major currencies, capping a three-year slide of a record 28%. The currency's plunge in 2015 was precipitated by the perfect storm of bearish factors: a recession in Canada in the first half of the year, slowing global growth, two interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, lower commodity prices, and finally, a 30% plunge in crude oil prices.
The drag exerted by these factors on the currency could ease up in 2016. The Canadian economy is expected to benefit from the tailwinds of monetary and fiscal stimulus and a weak currency, while pockets of strength in some parts of the world (like the U.S., Canada's largest trading partner; and India) and a modest recovery in others (Europe, Japan) could offset the slowdown in China. Non-energy exports are also picking up. In November, exports rose 0.4% to C$43.3 billion after declines in the three preceding months, led by a 5.9% increase to C$7.9 billion in sales of motor vehicles and parts; automobile shipments have surged 24% over the past year.
Odds of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in 2016 to a record low of 0.25% are rising, which may pressure the loonie if the Canadian and global economies weaken. Currency traders, however, are optimistic about the chances for a recovery in the Canadian dollar in 2016. The average forecast in a Bloomberg survey for the end-2016 C$ spot rate is 1.33 (or just over 75 U.S. cents), compared with the present exchange rate of 1.4050 (about 71 U.S. cents).
Euro
The euro came under speculative attack in the first half of 2015 as a political crisis in Greece once again stirred concerns about the future of the euro area. The currency conceded the global stage to the yuan after the latter's unexpected devaluation in August, and ended 2015 down 10.2% vs. the dollar. In December, it had tumbled to around 1.05 to the U.S. dollar, on expectations for expanded monetary stimulus measures from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, but rebounded after Draghi's measures were less dramatic than expected. While some currency traders think the euro could fall to parity with the greenback in 2016, Bloomberg survey participants forecast only a modest weakening in the currency this year, to 1.06 from its present level of 1.08.
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real was the worst-performing major currency in 2015, plunging 33% against the U.S. dollar, and bringing its decline versus the greenback since 2010 to a staggering 58%. The currency reached a record low of 4.25 against the U.S. dollar in September after Standard & Poor's cut Brazil's credit rating to junk amid a deep recession, political stalemate and a widening corruption probe into state-owned oil company Petrobras. With business and consumer confidence continuing to plummet, and Brazil's equity index near a seven-year low amid a global sell-off in the first week of January, the real may be hard-pressed to recover in 2016. In fact, the currency could trade at new lows if commodity and energy prices continue to tumble in 2016.
The Bottom Line
These four currencies will be under the spotlight in 2016, with the Chinese yuan in particular at center stage.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/012716/four-currencies-under-spotlight-2016.asp