Stephen Vita 2016年1月28日
股票熊市的傳統定義是像標準普爾500一樣的基準指數從最近的高點上下跌20%。市場技術人員通過市場氛圍確定市場内部環境，而現在市場環境不那麼健康。
2016年初，從歐洲到遠東的股指已經停盤或者進入熊市。美國股票由於一些顯而易見的風險在2016年非常脆弱。
美聯儲決策性錯誤
每隔幾十年，美聯儲都會出現決策性錯誤。這個能是利率提升太快的另一個極端。在過去幾年中，美國經濟複蘇要快於世界其他地區。全球環境基本相同，很少出現例外。美國和歐洲現在最大宏觀風險是通貨緊縮，而不是通貨膨脹，美聯儲擔心通脹率將下跌到遠遠低於目標的2%水平。歐洲、中國和日本都在實行寬松貨幣政策，而美聯儲決定實行緊縮政策，雖然幅度很小。
華爾街擔心美聯儲不會讓步。1月的第一週，美聯儲副主席Stanley Fischer表示市場正在接受緊縮的到來，曾評論“我們認為它們（利率）太低”。他預測2016年至少出現四次利率提升。也許這一次不一樣，但是美聯儲很少在開始緊縮政策後立即停止或者逆轉。由於底層經濟環境距離爆發還很遠、股票處於低谷、大宗商品暴跌和垃圾債券，如果美聯儲保持強硬很可能發生決策性錯誤，而美國股票將會遭受打擊。
企業利潤下降和股票價值高估
如果美聯儲的緊縮政策太強勁，美元會隨之強勁，這將對美國跨國企業將弱勢貨幣轉化成美元時造成損失。盈利是股票價格的最主要驅動，德國高盛投資公司已經降低了其2016年的盈利預期。該公司認為利潤空間已經到達定點。美國勞動力成本正在增加，美國公司普遍缺少定價權和利潤增長。這些都是盈利增長的不利因素。
與此同時，一些華爾街分析人士進一步警告投資者應該為企業利潤下跌做好準備。根據標普資本智商公司的數據，美國企業2015年第四季度利潤下跌5%，出現自2009年以來的首次連續下跌。盈利也將決定市盈率，這一結果將決定股票市場估值。當前標準普爾使用的12個月的盈利做出的市盈率是20，而長期和中期分別是16和15。Oaktree Capital的Howard Marks是一位擁有一流長期記錄的投資者，他表示股票估值不是非常高或者非常低，但是他們已經被完全定價了。
巴菲特認為總市場價格和GDP的比率是對市場估值的最好方式。如果按此方法，當前美國股票市場的價值是被高估的。
經濟增長放緩或者衰退
經濟即將衰退的最明顯的一個指標是倒置的國庫債券收益曲線，但是不可能現在發生。經濟衰退的其他主要指標也沒有出現，但是經濟增長放緩不一樣，尤其是如果美聯儲在2016年繼續緊縮政策。
美國經濟第三季度增長率為2.1%，相比第二季度的3.9%有大幅下降。大部分預測都認為2016年美國GDP增長將為2.5%。消費者指數是經濟增長的一個重要指標，而消費者信心在11月跌入14個月最低點，2015年末制造業疲軟，美國供應管理協會指數跌入六年來最低點。
穆迪公司、世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織都預測2016年不會出現經濟衰退，但是增長緩慢。穆迪公司預測這種緩慢將持續到2017年，所有的經濟分析人士都認為如果環境惡化中國的股票崩盤和經濟增長放緩將成為全球經濟增長的巨大風險。
意想不到的經濟沖擊成為在2016年經濟衰退的唯一途徑，這種情況一旦發生，對美國股票的影響的將是災難性的。觀察市場歷史，最糟糕的熊市總是和經濟衰退一起出現。
股票崩盤警告信號
如果標準普爾500指數在三月初之前不會崩潰，那麼牛市週期將會達到7年，是上世紀90年代後最長的一次。牛市可以持續更長時間，但是已經出現了投資者可以為最壞情況做準備的警告信號
3 Risks U.S. Equities Face in 2016
By Stephen Vita | January 28, 2016
The traditional definition of a stock bear market is a 20% decline in a benchmark index such as the S&P 500 from the most recent high. Market technicians take the temperature of the market by examining internal conditions – and right now, the patient is not looking healthy.
Stock indexes from Europe to the Far East are already close to or in bear markets in early 2016. U.S equities look increasingly vulnerable in 2016 based on several clear risks.
Federal Reserve Policy Mistake
Every few decades, the Federal Reserve makes a policy mistake. It could be on the verge of another one if it raises interest rates too aggressively. In the last few years, U.S. economic growth has barely crawled higher compared to other recoveries. The worldwide story is the same, with a few exceptions. Deflation, not inflation, is the greatest macroeconomic risk in the United States and Europe, and the Fed is worried that inflation will fall too far below the target level of 2%. Europe, Japan and China are all easing their monetary policies, yet the Fed has decided to tighten its policy, albeit by a very small amount.
Wall Street is worried that the Fed won't stop there. In the first week of January, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that the market was underestimating how much tightening was on the way, commenting that "we think that they're too low." He forecasts at least four rate hikes in 2016. Maybe it will be different this time, but the Fed rarely starts a tightening campaign and immediately stops or reverses course. With the underlying condition of the economy far from robust, stocks on their knees, commodities obliterated and junk bonds tanking, the potential for a policy mistake is high if the Fed does not relent, and U.S. equities will suffer.
Falling Corporate Profits and High Stock Valuations
If the Fed gets too tight, the U.S. dollar may get too strong, which is another weight on corporate profits in 2016. U.S. multinational corporations will be hurt as overseas earnings are converted from weaker currencies back into dollars. Earnings are the key driver of stock prices, and Goldman Sachs has already lowered its earnings forecast for 2016. It believes that profit margins have peaked. U.S. labor costs are perking up, companies lack pricing power and revenue growth is flat. These are toxic conditions for earnings growth.
Meanwhile, some Wall Street analysts go even further, warning that investors should prepare for a recession in corporate earnings. According to S&P Capital IQ, U.S. fourth-quarter earnings fell by 5% in 2015, the first back-to-back decline since 2009. Earnings also determine price/earnings (P/E) ratios, and this measurement leads to appraisals of the stock market's valuation. The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 using trailing 12-month earnings is about 20 compared to a long-term mean of 16 and median of 15. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, an investor with a stellar long-term record, says stock valuations are not extremely low or extremely high, but they are fully priced.
Warren Buffett maintains that looking at the ratio of total market cap relative to gross domestic product (GDP) is the best way to value the market. On this basis, the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued.
Slowing Economic Growth or Recession
One of the most reliable indications of a looming recession is an inverted Treasury bond yield curve, but that is nowhere close to happening today. Other macro indicators of recession are also far off the radar screen, but slowing growth is not unlikely, especially if the Fed continues on the path of tightening in 2016.
The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, retreating from the 3.9% increase in the second quarter. The consensus forecast for the U.S. is 2.5% GDP growth in 2016. Consumer spending is an important metric for economic growth, and consumer confidence fell to a 14-month low in November. Manufacturing activity weakened in late 2015; the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index fell to its lowest level in six years.
Moody's, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) all peg global growth as non-recessionary in 2016, but lackluster. Moody's sees slow growth through 2017, and every pundit on the planet mentions the crash in Chinese stocks and the big slowdown in its economy as a risk to global growth if conditions worsen.
An unexpected economic shock appears to be the only route to a recession in 2016, but if it does occur, the effect on the U.S. equity market will be devastating. Looking at market history, the deepest bear markets almost always occur in conjunction with recessions.
Stocks Flashing Caution Signals
If the S&P 500 doesn't completely collapse before early March, the bull market will be 7 years old, one of the longest of the last 90 years. It could go on longer, of course, but there are enough caution signals that investors should prepare themselves for the worst.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/012816/3-risks-us-equities-face-2016.asp