供應過剩致擔憂 原油創一週新低

在亞洲交易日的星期二，由於中國新股上市和依舊疲軟的制造業數據，原油價格跌至一週以來的最低點。

在紐約商品期貨交易所，3月交割的輕質低硫原油期貨的價格跌至每桶31美元。在倫敦ICE期貨交易所，四月交割的佈倫特原油下跌1.8%，跌至每桶33.61美元，是週四以來的最低價。

兩年來的石油供需失調導致原油價格不斷下跌。分析家認為，今年下半年，原油價格可能會出現一些修正，因為他們認為一些高成本的制造商會停止損人不利己的行為。

澳新銀行調查表明：“緩慢的經濟增長和大宗商品政策的有效性都給油價回升增加了難度。”

世界頂級銀行高盛投資公司在週一重申了之前的預測，認為油價在回升之前，可能會跌至每桶20美元，因為在短時間内減少俄羅斯和中東的產量是不可能的。

高盛銀行認為，如果價格出現回升，制造商一定會立刻增加產量，所以他們的預測是不可撼動的。伊朗的增產計劃也引發了對順差增加的擔憂。伊朗已經表示，在產量達到每天150萬桶之前，他們不會考慮減產的問題。此外，去年俄羅斯產出的1073萬桶凝析油也加劇了全球供應過剩的狀況。

華僑銀行表示：“隨著人們對供應過剩的擔憂，原油價格再一次下跌，美國原油庫存也在繼續增加。”

最新數據顯示，美國原油庫存連續三週增加，截至1月22日，庫存已達840萬桶。因季節性維護，煉油廠已降低了產量。花旗期貨預計在1月29日增加500萬至600萬桶原油。美國原油上一週的庫存和產量數據將在週三發佈。

悲觀的情緒加劇了中國制造業數據的疲弱，已出現連續六個月下降。中國的經濟重心將從工業版塊轉向服務版塊，導致了投資者對中國原油需求的擔憂，但有些人認為這是不必要的。

澳大利亞國家銀行首席經濟學家Alan Oster認為，占據中國經濟半壁江山的制造業和建築業將在今年增長8.5%。他還表示，即使中國將經濟重心轉移至服務業，陸運和空運方面對石油也是有需求的。

Oster說：“中國經濟沒有崩潰，但包括石油在内的大宗商品的需求也不會有大幅增加。”

紐約商品期貨交易所三月交割的混調型精制汽油合約價格下跌了36個點，跌至每加侖1.0794美元；三月交割的柴油期貨下跌了55個點，跌至1.0310美元。

ICE 2月交割的汽油的交易價格為每公噸294.5美元，較週一下跌了4.25美元。

Crude prices drop to nearly one-week low as supply worries build

Crude-oil prices hit a nearly one-week low in Asian trade Tuesday, as more fresh supplies are set to hit the market and data showed manufacturing activity in China remained weak.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March CLH6, -1.87%  traded at $31 a barrel, down $0.61, or 2% in the Globex electronic session and its lowest since Wednesday. April Brent crude LCOJ6, -1.78% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.63, or 1.8%, to $33.61 a barrel, its lowest since Thursday.

The mismatch between oil supply and demand has strained prices for nearly two years. Analysts say a price correction could happen in the second half of this year, as they expect some high-cost producers to halt production to avert debt defaults or operational losses.

“The recovery in oil prices remains fragile amid slowing global growth and concerns around the effectiveness of policy measures for commodity demand,” said ANZ Research in a note.

Goldman Sachs, one of the first banks to forecast a plunge to $20 a barrel before a turnaround for oil, reiterated its prediction Monday and said a near-term collective cut by Russia and major Middle Eastern producers would be highly unlikely.

A cut at this point would be self-defeating because it would jump-start prices and encourage producers to pump more, the bank said. Iran’s plan to increase production has also amplified fears of a swelling surplus. Tehran has said it won’t consider a production cut until its exports hit 1.5 million barrels a day. Adding to the worries, a record-high oil and gas condensate output of 10.73 million barrels from Russia last year is also pushing the global surplus higher.

“Crude oil prices slumped once again on supply concerns, now that the markets are eyeing another episode of higher U.S. inventories,” said OCBC in a note.

Latest data showed U.S. crude stockpiles grew for the third straight week to 8.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 22, as refinery activity slowed because of seasonal maintenance. Citi Futures expects an increase of 5 million to 6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 29. U.S. crude inventories and production data for last week is scheduled for release Wednesday.

The downbeat sentiment was further fuelled by China’s latest soft manufacturing data, which registered a sixth straight month of contraction in January. However, some say the fear could be overblown as China’s oil demand will likely be supported by the industrial sector while the economy shifts toward a more services-oriented one.

Alan Oster, chief economist at National Australia Bank, said he expects China’s manufacturing and construction sector, which makes up about half of China’s economy, to grow by 8.5% this year. Moreover, oil is still needed in the services sector for transportation and freight, he added.

“I don’t see the Chinese economy falling over, but I don’t see a huge increase in demand for commodities, including oil,” Oster said.

Nymex reformulatedgasoline blendstockfor March NGH16, -1.02%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 36 points to $1.0794 a gallon, while March diesel traded at $1.0310, 55 points lower.

ICE gasoil for February changed hands at $294.50 a metric ton, down $4.25 from Monday’s settlement. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-drop-to-nearly-one-week-low-as-supply-worries-build-2016-02-02