Alan Farley 2016年2月2日
白銀自從2011年4月的上升趨勢結束後已經失去了大部分價值，在一個強烈的下降趨勢中跌入五年低點之後絲毫沒有停止的迹象。黃金下跌已經引起了媒體和市場的多方關註，雖然貴金屬交易的基本面不同，但是白銀交易者受到的影響同樣巨大。
這種緊密相關性在未來幾年將會持續，這兩種貴金屬都將觸底並進入新的上升區間。在這些複蘇趨勢開始時的長期做多投資將會有很好的潛在利潤，因此緊密關註兩個在市場尋找價格即將上升的線索將會十分有價值。
白銀的工業用途占其年全球需求量的一半。相反的，黃金主要的功能是在危險時期作為通脹對沖避險手段，僅有年需求的10%用於工業用途。這個區別告訴我們經濟環境對白銀價格的影響比黃金價格大。
鑒於其工業用途，白銀投資者也應該關註鐵和銅市場，這兩個市場同樣在2011年開始下跌趨勢。在這種情況下，經濟回暖對白銀的影響將大於黃金，為白銀提供比黃金更好的買入機會。
歷史價格走勢
白銀100年價格圖
白銀在1915年到1962年的價格區間十分狹窄，維持在每盎司少於1美元左右。1962年的古巴導彈危機引發了白銀價格持續六年的上漲，達到2.5美元。1971年進入一個新的上升趨勢，1973年的阿拉伯石油禁運加速了價格上漲。1974年價格達到頂點，並維持五年時間，直到亨特兄弟試圖壟斷市場引發泡沫。
這種不平衡持續到1980年2月，白金漲到35.52美元並在接下來兩年狂跌30點。接下來的20年它處於泡沫後的恢複期，最終在2003年進入新的上升趨勢。價格在2011年超過1980年的高點，達到48.70美元並開始再次下跌。這個下降趨勢在2008年10.12美元到達低點，現在在14美元左右。
當前市場驅動力
白銀受大宗商品崩潰的影響程度與能源、金屬、農業產品相同。許多分析人士認為多年來世界範圍的央行緊縮政策使紙上資產比實物資產更有價值。回歸傳統的通脹預期將會使這些產品受益並結束熊市。
由於貴金屬一直被作為通脹對沖手段，白銀在價格上漲的環境中受益將大於其他大宗商品。2015年12月的美聯儲上調利率，為白銀價格提升提供了條件。
然而，全球股票市場在2016年1月出現做空風潮，使得歐洲和亞洲的央行們重新制定決定通脹和白銀價格上漲的寬松政策。美聯儲保持高利率但是改變政策措辭以表現對全球市場的擔憂。
減弱的工業需求為2016年白銀價格增加了另一個壓力。美國多年來一直處於緩慢的增長模式，歐洲正在竭力避免經濟衰退。與此同時，中國的經濟增長自2012開始下降，專家預測這一情況將持續多年。金磚四國經濟的強勁增長是白銀價格在2011年到達歷史最高點的主要動力。
2016年觀察什麼
白銀價格自2001年起就經歷了一系列的更高高點和更高低點。從技術角度講，雖然在週圖和日圖上主要由下跌趨勢構成，但是月度上升趨勢還完好。要打破這一模式需要跌破2008年的低點（10.18美元），因此觀察接下來幾個月的走勢十分重要。
如果白銀維持在藍線之上並在之後超過2007年17.09的高點，第一個上升信號就會出現。白銀在2014年9月打破支撐水平，價格複蘇將會在所有技術分析中出現買入信號。
總結
白銀交易與黃金和鐵和銅交易有相似點，因為其即使既能作為工業金屬也能作為通脹對沖手段。因此白銀這個下跌趨勢的結束很可能與這些工具的複蘇類似。
Will Silver Recover in 2016?
By Alan Farley | February 02, 2016
Silver has lost considerable ground since a 3-year uptrend ended in April 2011, dropping to a 5-year low in a virulent downtrend that shows no signs of letting up. While gold’s nearly identical decline has gotten the lion’s share of media and market attention, silver investors have been hurt equally, even though the precious metals trade on different fundamentals.
This tight correlation is likely to continue in coming years, with both metals eventually bottoming out together and entering new uptrends. Long-term positions taken at the start of these recovery waves will show excellent profit potential, so it makes sense to pay close attention to both markets, looking for clues about a fresh demand that will signal higher prices.
Silver has many industrial uses, accounting for more than half its annual demand worldwide. Conversely, gold functions primarily as an inflation hedge and haven in dangerous times, with just 10% of its annual demand focused on industry. This divergence tells us that economic conditions should affect silver prices to a greater degree than gold prices.
Given their industrial roots, prospective silver investors should also focus on iron and copper markets, which have ground out similar downtrends since 2011. In this scenario, an economic upturn is likely to lift silver into a position of strength relative to gold, offering a better buying opportunity when choosing between the two instruments.
Historical Price Action
Silver 100 Year Chart
Silver traded within a narrow range between 1915 and 1962, holding below $1.00 per ounce. The Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 triggered a breakout that continued for six years, peaking at 2.50. It entered a new uptrend in 1971, accelerating higher in 1973 in reaction to the Arab Oil Embargo. The metal topped out in 1974 and spent nearly five years grinding sideways, ahead of a historical bubble generated by Hunt Brothers’ attempts to corner the market.
That imbalance continued into February 1980, with the metal peaking at 35.52 and crashing to earth in a 30-point, 2-year decline. It spent the next two decades recovering from the broken bubble, finally entering a new uptrend in 2003. Silver exceeded its 1980 high in 2011, rallying to 48.70 and crashing lower once again. That decline has held above the December 2008 low at 10.12 so far, trading around 14.00 into the first quarter of 2016.
Current Market Drivers
Silver is caught in a commodity collapse affecting energy, metals and agricultural futures to an equal degree. Many analysts believe that years of deflationary central bank policy around the world has aggravated the decline by making paper assets more valuable than physical assets. A return to traditional inflationary expectations would benefit the group and likely end their bear markets.
Gold and silver should benefit to a greater degree than other commodity groups in a rising price environment due to precious metals’ historic identity as inflation hedges. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in December 2015, the first in nearly a decade, offered a step in the right direction, lifting both instruments off downtrend lows.
However, equity markets around the world sold off in January 2016, triggering shock waves that induced European and Asian central banks to consider fresh easing policies detrimental to inflation and higher silver prices. The Fed has kept higher interest rates in place but changed policy language to reflect concerns about global risks. Many market players are viewing these comments as a precursor to an outright repeal of the rate hike.
Slack industrial demand adds another headwind for silver prices in 2016. The U.S. expansion has been stuck in slow growth mode for years while Europe struggles to avoid recession. Meanwhile, Chinese growth rates shrunk since 2012, with analysts predicting the contraction will continue into the next decade. Torrid growth in that nation and other BRIC members provided the primary fuel for silver’s ascent to an all-time high in 2011.
What To Watch In 2016
Silver has held the series of higher highs and higher lows in place since 2001, despite the massive decline from the 2011 peak. Technically speaking, this tells us the monthly uptrend is still intact despite major downtrends in the weekly and daily time frames. It will take a decline through the 2008 low at 10.18 (blue line on a historical chart) to break this pattern, so it makes sense to watch that level in coming months.
The first sign of a new uptrend will come if silver holds above the blue line and then lifts above the March 2007 high at 17.99 (red line on historic chart). It broke down from that support level in September 2014, and a recovery will set off buy signals across technical desks around the world. It’s currently priced around 25% lower.
The Bottom Line
Silver trades in alignment with gold, iron and copper due to its double identity as an industrial metal and inflationary hedge. The end of its downtrend is likely to coincide with similar recoveries in those instruments.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020216/will-silver-recover-2016-slv-gld-jjc.asp