大意失荊州。高盛分析家認為，OPEC錯過了降低石油產量，並將油價維持在每桶40美元的最佳時機。
Damien Courvalin和Jeffrey Currie等大宗商品分析家認為，石油聯盟根本不會削減石油產量，即使他們這樣做了，也挽回不了油價。
他們在報告中說道：“即使OPEC有削減產量的想法，但是考慮到美國甚至全球都在增加庫存，美國墨西哥灣沿岸也在增加儲存能力，OPEC現在採取任何措施都來不及了，新一輪油價下跌已無可避免。”
他們還補充到：“在宣佈降低石油產量之後，油價可能稍有回升，但在庫存下降之前，石油期貨曲線仍會保持溢價狀態，就像1998-1999年亞洲金融危機時一樣。”在現貨石油價格低於期貨石油價格時，溢價就會出現。
因此，銀行再次強調，油價可能在很長時間内維持較低的水平，高成本的生產商會被逐漸淘汰。這個“轉變階段”需要油價維持在每桶40美元附近，石油公司在這一價位會經受財務上的壓力，當油價跌至20美元時，公司便難以為繼了。
他們補充道：“這個階段的特點是波動劇烈、沒有趨勢，而且會出現歷史最低價。”
這個結論是在上週原油驟漲4%、佈倫特原油飙升8%之後得出的，那時OPEC和非OPEC制造商正在為是否削減產量而争論不休。然後高盛集團提出了一套完整的理論來證明石油聯盟不會同意降低產量，並表明降低產量無異於自掘墳墓。
舉例來講，OPEC在2014年11月和2015年12月決定維持石油產量不變，這是為了中期收益的最大化。雖然高產低價會對短期收益帶來巨大沖擊，但這是應對高成本非OPEC生產商的必要之舉。
14個月的等待終於開花結果，在幾週前油價跌破每桶40美元時，非OPEC國家的制造商開始降低產量。
這意味著降低產量會破壞OPEC的計劃，反而幫助到石油聯盟之外的國家。這也為美國為首的其他制造商提供了增加產量搶占市場份額的機會。
今年一月，伊朗在制裁解除後迅速提高產量，這對OPEC的任何行動都會產生影響。伊朗官方聲稱並未打算湧入市場，但他們的目標仍是侵略性的。上週，一名官員稱伊朗在每天的石油產量增加150萬桶之前是不會考慮減產的。
因此，減產計劃還要對伊朗的增產行為進行調節，但考慮到伊朗同沙特直接的緊張局勢，這個協議是極難達成的。
A big reason it’s too late for OPEC to cut production
You snooze, you lose. OPEC may have missed an opportunity to cut oil production, likely leaving oil prices stuck under $40 a barrel for the next five months, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn.
In a note out on Monday, the commodity analysts, led by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie, argued that not only is the oil cartel highly unlikely to cut output but even if it did, the move would do little to push prices higher.
“Given the likely time necessary to enact such cuts, the continued large builds in U.S. and global inventories and the fast pace at which U.S. Gulf Coast spare storage capacity is filling, it may already be too late for OPEC producers to be able to prevent another large decline in prices,” they said in the report.
“While prices may rally initially upon announcement, we would expect this move to fade and the oil forward curve to remain in contango until inventories decline, just as was the case [during the Asian crisis] in 1998-1999,” they added. Contango occurs when the spot price of oil is lower than the futures price.
As a result, the bank reiterated the view that prices need to stay low for longer to balance the market and weed out production from high-cost producers. This “inflection phase” requires that oil prices remain between $40 a barrel — the level where companies are experiencing financial stress — and $20 — the level where producers experience operational stress — until the second half of 2016, the analysts said.
“This phase will be characterized by a highly volatile and trend-less market with the price lows likely still to be set,” they added.
The observation comes after crude oil CLH6, +0.59% jumped more than 4% and Brent LCOJ6, +0.49% surged almost 8% last week on chatter OPEC and non-OPEC producers were considering a coordinated production cut. However, Goldman Sachs provided a whole host of reasons the cartel won’t agree to change output and why a cut ultimately would be “self-defeating”.
For example, the decision by OPEC in November 2014 and again in December 2015 to sustain production at high levels is about maximizing revenue over the medium term, the analysts said. While the combination of high production and low prices hurts in the short term, it was “necessary in the face of strongly growing higher-cost non-OPEC production.”
“And after a 14-month wait, the strategy is finally bearing fruit, with non-OPEC producer guidance pointing to production declines since oil prices fell below $40 a barrel a few weeks ago,” they said.
That means an output cut to bring prices back above that level would undermine OPEC’s strategy and instead help countries outside the cartel. There’s also the potential for other producers — primarily the U.S. — to quickly respond and ramp up production to win market share.
Another significant hurdle to any OPEC action is the production increase in Iran after sanctions on the country were lifted in January. Iranian officials have indicated they don’t intend to flood the market, but their targets remain aggressive. An Iranian oil official said last week Tehran won’t consider a reduction until its exports have increased by 1.5 million barrels a day over current levels, according to a report from Dow Jones.
“As a result, a production cut would likely need to accommodate continued growth in Iranian production, an agreement which seems unlikely given recent tensions with Saudi Arabia,” they said.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-big-reason-its-too-late-for-opec-to-cut-production-2016-02-01?mod=MW_story_recommended_default&Link=obnetwork