Dan Moskowitz 2016年2月3日
永遠沒有盡頭。不管你告訴一個人多少次不要嘗試撈底或者接住一把下落的刀子，他們總是想成為英雄。請記住即使在石油撈底時你是正確的，如果你始終保持這種在市場中撈底的心態，那麼在股票和ETF中你真正正確的會是多少次呢？最終你將成為一個失敗者。如果你想從市場中賺錢，那麼你需要跟隨趨勢，但是要把資金平均分配到每一個策略上，使他們都有錢可用，以維持你的購買力。
或者你需要像巴菲特一樣只在合適的價格買入好公司的股票。稍後將做詳細介紹。
你可能在2009到2015的牛市中表現良好，但是你要意識到，任何人都可能在那個時間週期中做的很好。這個順風車已經結束了。為了在當前市場中賺錢，你需要更加了解經濟狀況，這將對你的投資產生影響。當然，你更不可能排除美聯儲的影響。
石油形勢沒有變化：供過於求。這將在短時間内不會改變。相對持續反彈的唯一希望是未來的一年中出現一個由於失敗引起的行業反彈。這可能發生在下半年，在期貨合約到期之後。然而，這不意味著你應該投資石油。
這是一個難題。石油持續反彈的唯一機會是需求回歸。發生這種情況的時候，代替能源可能已經取得顯著的進展。關註綠色能源的一代將不可能有推動老派能源創新的動力。事情都會發生改變，如果你不改變，你註定會失敗。
目前石油需求的現狀是每個經濟體都在遭受人口老齡化的困擾，這表現在消費者支出上。中國，這個近年來世界經濟增長的最大動力正在出現疲軟，最近的負面新聞是12月的制造業PMI降低，這是連續六個月出現降低。這是因為沒有需求。整體上的需求缺乏是石油持續降低的原因。
美孚公司（XOM）剛剛公佈糟糕的營業數據。與此同時，巴菲特再次加持了Phillips 66 股票（PSX）。這意味著PSX存在買入機會嗎？跟隨歷史上最成功的投資者可靠嗎？下面將是答案和理由。
下面所有的數據都截止到2016年2月3日。
最近結果
美孚最近公佈2015財年盈利162億美元。這很不錯，但是很難與2014財年的325億美元相比。第四季度的業績更不令人滿意，利潤下跌58%。
英國石油公司的情況更加糟糕，2015財年收入比2014財年下降91%。該公司2015財年虧損65億美元，第四季度虧損22億美元。股票下跌了8.45%。
這很簡單：你為什麼會投資一個剛剛虧損65億美元的公司呢？投資一個增長的虧損公司是因為它增長巨大並在將來盈利。這是投資當前虧損的大型企業的另一種方式。
英國石油公司沒有巨大增長，而且在短時間内也不會有。在這種情況下，該公司正在積極裁員。不幸的是，這種情況在能源領域很普遍，如果你從大局看，這將更加傷害消費者，進一步降低需求。我們正處在一個惡性循環。具有諷刺意味的是，除此之外我們別無選擇。
英國石油公司CEO Bob Dudley最近曾說：“石油下跌將維持很長時間，但不會是永遠的。”他已經給出了答案。
巴菲特理論
如果你在過去幾十年跟隨巴菲特的投資，你很容易變成一個億萬富翁。這可能馬上會讓你想買入PSX股票，但是事情不是這樣的。
由於多樣化和質量管理，PSX表現比其同行好得多，但是你不能期待它在一個通縮的熊市市場上漲。採納我的與巴菲特對立的觀點看起來很荒謬，但是我堅持這一觀點。
巴菲特曾多次承認他不怎麼關註宏觀經濟環境。他簡單的投資那些表現傑出的公司，最終獲利。他是正確的，但是這個“最終”可能是很長的一段時間。
巴菲特在歷史最大的經濟繁榮階段發家。因此，他不需要太關註宏觀經濟情況。他只需要選擇出高質量的公司。這很正確。問題是經濟繁榮階段已經結束。這也是巴菲特在經濟危機中表現不好的原因。他沾了高寬松貨幣政策的光。但是這次很難出現類似的情況。
PSX在去年增值6.14%，這對任何能源相關的公司來說都很出色。PSX被認為在幾種情況下將會上漲，但是有太多的外部壓力。事實上，PSX在過去三個月中下跌15.29%。對PSX積極的是其股息收益僅為較低的2.79%。這可能有點反常，但是這將幫助Phillips 66避免出現債務問題。不過，PSX的風險還是太大。期待它比同行業出現更多的反彈，但是股票升值在明年很難實現。
總結
記住“現在開始尋找在石油公司盈利空間還太早。包括上面提到的三家公司，英國石油公司的風險最大。你甚至在長遠看來需要更加小心，因為在全球對石油需求改善時代替產品可能會搶占份額。這在美國有明顯迹象，中國正在努力控制污染，印度政府正在增加代替能源的投資。這是三個很重要的例子。這裡所寫的都是個人觀點，在投資之前請做好自己的研究。
Is Buffett's Bet on Oil Right for You? (XOM, PSX)
By Dan Moskowitz | February 03, 2016
It never ends. No matter how many times you try to teach someone not to try to call a bottom, or to catch a falling knife, they still continue to attempt to be a hero. Please understand that even if you were correct in calling a bottom in oil, if you have this mindset of always attempting to call a bottom in markets, stocks and ETFs, how many times will you actually be correct? You will eventually end up a loser. If you want to make money in the market, then you need to follow the trends, but with a conservative dollar-cost-averaging strategy where cash is always available, which maintains your buying power.
Or you could be like Warren Buffet and simply buy good companies at a good price. More on that later...
It’s possible, if not likely, that you did well during the 2009-2015 bull market, but you need to recognize that anyone could have thrown three darts at a printed page of the S&P 500 and done well during that time frame. The free ride is over. In order to make money in this market, you need to be more aware of economic conditions, which will then have an impact on investments. And, of course, you can’t rule out the Federal Reserve impact.
The oil situation remains the same: oversupply and lack of demand. This will not change anytime soon. The only hope for a relatively sustainable bounce over the next year is if there is an industry shakeout due to failures. This could happen in the second half of the year, after futures contracts expire. However, this doesn’t mean you should invest in oil.
Here’s the dilemma. The only chance for a real sustainable rally in oil is if demand returns. By the time that happens, alternative energy could have made significant progress. There is no chance that a generation focused on being green is going to have a drive to innovate in the world of old-school energy. Everything changes, and if you don’t change with it, you’re doomed to fail.
As far as the current situation for demand for oil, every major economy in the world is suffering from aging populations, which slows consumer spending. China, which had been the big growth driver for years, is showing weakness, and the most recent negative news is manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.4 in December vs. 49.7 in December. That makes six consecutive months of contraction — any reading below 50 shows contraction. This is happening because demand isn’t there. That overall lack of consumer demand is also why oil continues to move lower.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and BP p.l.c. (BP) just reported poor results. At the same time, Warren Buffett has once again increased his stake in Phillips 66 (PSX). Does this mean a buying opportunity exists in PSX? Would following the best investor throughout history make sense? Answer below, as well as justification for the answer.
All numbers below as of Feb. 3, 2016.
Recent Results
Exxon Mobil recently reported earnings of $16.2 billion for fiscal-year 2015. Not bad, but not good compared to $32.5 billion in earnings in fiscal-year 2014. Q4 results weren’t impressive either, with earnings plunging 58%.
BP’s situation was worse, with the bottom line falling 91% for fiscal-year 2015 on a year-over-year basis. The company reported a loss of $6.5 billion and $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter. And the stock responded with an 8.45% decline.
This is very simple: Why would you invest in a company that just lost $6.5 billion? It’s one thing to invest in a growth company that’s losing money because it’s growing on the top line and could turn a profit in the future. It’s another thing to invest in a one-time giant that is now losing money.
There is no top-line growth for BP, and there won’t be for a while. That being the case, BP is aggressively slashing headcount. Unfortunately, this was expected throughout the energy space, and if you look at the big picture, it means more hurt consumers, which further slows demand and fuels deflation. We are stuck in a vicious cycle. The irony is that the vicious cycle is the only way out.
By the way, BP’s CEO Bob Dudley recently stated, “Oil lower for longer, but not low forever.” He just gave you the answer.
The Buffett Theory
If you had followed Buffett’s investments over the past few decades, you would easily be a millionaire. This might immediately make you think that you should initiate a position in PSX, but that’s not the case.
Thanks to diversification and quality management, PSX might hold up better than its peers, but you shouldn’t expect it to hold up in a deflationary bear market. Listening to me versus Warren Buffett would seem absurd, but I stand by this call.
Warren Buffett has often admitted that he doesn’t pay much attention to macroeconomic conditions. He simply invests in exceptional companies, knowing that he will eventually make money. He’s correct, but “eventually” in this environment has the potential to be a very long time.
Buffett made his money during the biggest economic boom in history. Therefore, he didn’t need to pay much attention to macroeconomic conditions. He just needed to pick high-quality companies. That makes sense. The problem is that the booming-economy-era is over. This is why Buffett didn’t perform well during the financial crisis. He was saved by highly accommodative monetary policy. That isn't likely to be the case this time around.
PSX has appreciated 6.14% over the past year, which is excellent for any energy-related company. PSX was written about bullishly here on several occasions, but there is too much external pressure for that opinion to remain. In fact, PSX has slid 15.29% over the past three months. One positive for PSX is a low dividend yield of 2.79%. That might seem counterintuitive, but this will help prevent Phillips 66 from running into debt problems down the road. Nevertheless, PSX is still too risky here. Expect it to offer more resiliency than peers, but stock appreciation over the next year will be difficult to achieve.
The Bottom Line
To keep it simple: It’s too early to begin looking for bargains in oil companies. That includes the three companies listed above, with BP being the riskiest. You even have to be careful over the long haul because alternative energy will steal share by the time global demand for oil improves. This is clearly evident in the United States; China is trying to curb pollution; and the Indian government is focused on increasing investment in alternative energy. Those are just three important examples. Everything written here is a matter of opinion. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020316/buffetts-bet-oil-right-you-xom-psx.asp