美聯儲官員提醒投資者當心市場波動

週三的會議記錄顯示，大多數美聯儲官員都認為在金融局勢穩定之前，美股市場的下滑會出現暫停。

美股市場在2016年起步艱難，其他市場也是動蕩頻繁。

1月27日結束的聯邦公開市場委會會議記錄顯示：“很多投資者發現，相較於上行沖擊，貨幣政策很難對通脹降低後的沖擊進行有效的回應。” 

美聯儲中只有少部分官員，願意在美聯儲十年內首次加息之後，等待股市疲軟的結束，因為他們認為市場可以使股票的估值更接近歷史標準。 

美聯儲政策委員會的某些投票成員更支援新一輪的加息。 

他們強調，他們需要在新一輪加息之前，看到通脹率升至2%的直接證據。 

會議記錄描繪出了美聯儲在戰爭迷霧中的掙紮。他們唯一能確定的事情就是，不確定性增加了。

去年十二月，美聯儲對美國的前景十分樂觀。官員們預測在2016年內，25個基點的加息會出現四次。 

但在今年一月，美聯儲面臨的擔憂越來越多。除了股票價格疲軟，信用價差的擴大，美元匯率進一步上升，金融市場的波動也在持續增加。 

如果這些金融現象持續下去，它們的影響甚至會強過貨幣緊縮政策。 

有些人擔心，近來股價下跌會導致消費性支出減少，從而導致全球經濟疲軟。 

某些官員稱他們的業務往來遠低於預期水平，這可能會導致資本支出計劃更加謹慎。 

某些官員擔心，市場參與者會誤以為加息是一成不變的而不是視情況而定的。 

為了解決這個問題，官員們考慮給經濟預期增加扇形圖表，從而向公衆傳達他們對預期的不確定性。 

但有些官員對此表示反對，他們考慮是否要將聯邦基金利率降為負值。 

為了對抗經濟下行風險的任何消極利率政策，都是不受華爾街歡迎的。 

最後，美聯儲決定繼續傳達他們對經濟前景的不確定性。 

美聯儲主席珍妮特·耶倫在上週讨論了她的證詞提交給國會的可能性。 

下一次聯邦公開市場委員會投票將在3月16日的會議中進行。市場參與者大多認為美聯儲不會加息。 

Fed officials alarmed about market gyrations, minutes show

The decline in the U.S. stock market warranted a pause until financial conditions settled down, most members at the Federal Reserve agreed, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. 

The U.S. stock market got off to a rocky start in 2016, and other markets have shown volatility. 

“Several participants noted that monetary policy was less well positioned to respond effectively to shocks that reduce inflation or real activity than to upside shocks, and that waiting for additional information regarding the underlying strength of economic activity and prospects for inflation before taking the next step to reduce policy accommodation would be prudent,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that ended Jan. 27 said. 

Only a small minority of Federal Reserve officials were willing to look past the stock market weakness that emerged after the U.S. central bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, arguing that it could be the result of bringing equity valuations more in line with historical norms. 

A few doves, who are voting member of the Fed policy committee, were forceful about what it would take to support another rate hike. 

They stressed they wanted to see “direct evidence” that inflation was rising toward 2% before they would back another rate increase. 

The minutes portray a central bank struggling with the fog of war. About the only thing they could agree on was that uncertainty had increased. 

In December, the Fed was much more positive about the outlook. Officials penciled in four quarter-point rate hikes for 2016. 

But in January, Fed officials faced a wall of worry. In addition to weak stock prices, there was a widening of credit spreads, a further rise in the dollar and an increase in financial market volatility. 

“The effects of these financial developments, if they were to persist, may be roughly equivalent to those from further tightening in monetary policy,” the minutes said. 

There was concern that the recent drop in stock prices could damp consumer spending, which had been expected to power the economy through any global weakness. 

Some Fed officials said their business contacts were less optimistic about the outlook and this could result in more-cautious capital spending plans. 

Some on the Fed were worried that the market viewed these rate hikes as set-in-stone and not dependent on the outlook. 

To get around this communications problem, Fed officials discussed adding fan charts to their economic forecasts to convey to the public the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts. 

But this proposal ran afoul of a sore point for Fed officials, whether the band around the path of the federal funds rate should extend below zero. 

The possible move to negative rates to combat any future downturn is unpopular with many on Wall Street. 

In the end, the Fed decided to continue to work on a way to communicate their own uncertainty about the economic outlook. 

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen discussed the possibility in her testimony to Congress last week. 

The next time the FOMC votes is at the two-day meeting ending March 16. Most in the market expect the Fed will not increase interest rates. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源： http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-selloff-worried-all-but-a-couple-on-fed-minutes-show-2016-02-17