熊市即將出現嗎？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年4月6日

看跌主義者多年來一直認為將出現下跌，但是這種情況並沒有出現。你可以把這當成他們是錯誤的例證。他們堅持他們的觀點是因為他們在基本面上的發現，但是事實是基本面並沒有美聯儲的作用大。如果利率繼續低下，至少股市將泰然自若。如果利率升高，那麼股市將面臨壓力。這非常簡單。長時間維持低利率的積累的債務風險必須得到解決。我們等待的時間越長，情況就會變得越糟糕並且經濟增長就會越緩慢，因為這將需要更多的資金進行去債務化。

另一種看法是那些公司、大宗商品、貨幣和國家的強烈基本面往往最終都是正確的。沒有人能判斷我們是否面臨下一個熊市。可以從基本面和技術面做深入的讨論。

基本面讨論

世界上最大的四個經濟體正在經歷人口老齡化、消費者消費下降和通脹緊縮。這些已經被認為是對市場最大的威脅，讓我們來看一下下一個潛在因素，那就是美國大選。現有的候選人有一些共同的主題，那就是增加金融監管、減少自由貿易和增加稅收。這些主題並不適合所有的候選人，而起為了政治傾向並沒有提及名字。要點是無論誰勝出，股市都會面臨壓力或者大選臨近時股市壓力就會出現。

另一個因素是就業市場。雖然看起來5%的失業率並不需要擔憂，但是這個數據是U-3版本。在包含失業、為充分就業和失去信心的U-6版本中這個比例是9.8%。而勞動力參與率是63%，這是自20世紀70年代以來的最低值。

最低小時工資漲到15美元的趨勢正在形成，但是這很可能適得其反。公司可能不能出現強勁的增長，因為需要低增長促進股價的上漲。促進低增長的一種方式是削減成本，但是這將出現負面影響。成本將會增加，最終將影響收入。

最重要的基本面來自美聯儲。美聯儲主席耶倫想要加息，但是她知道這很危險，因為經濟比大多數人設想的脆弱。與此同時，她現在面對著許多強硬派的壓力，如果她現在進行加息，將會把壓力放到股票市場上並會引發熊市。如果發生這種情況，她可能會再次調低利率。這也是為什麼可能不會出現熊市的原因，但是由於基本面原因未來還是可能出現加息。

技術讨論

標準普爾500指數現在仍然處於52週高點4%左右的下方，且接近十個月沒有出現新高。需要指出的是如果標準普爾500指數210天不出現新高，那麼下一年的平均收益將會是-3.01%。

根據MKM Partners首席市場技術員Jonathan Krinsky的說法，在2060到2100之間將會出現許多阻力，而1970將成為恐慌水平。另一方面，他也相信新高將會引發巨大的上升潛力。簡單來說就是，如果5月不出現新高，那麼他認為熊市將會出現。

總結

無論你從基本面還是技術面觀察當前形勢，都有出現熊市的危險。但是別忘了美聯儲到目前為止仍然是最具影響力的因素。

Is There a Bear Market Around the Corner?

By Dan Moskowitz | Updated April 06, 2016

The bears have been calling for a sustainable market drop for years, and it hasn’t happened. You could make a case that they’re wrong. The bears are sticking to their argument because of what they see fundamentally, but the truth is that fundamentals are not as important as the Federal Reserve. If interest rates remain low, stocks should, at least, hold their own. If interest rates move higher, stocks will be under pressure. It’s that simple. The risk of keeping interest rates low for too long is accumulated debts, which must eventually be paid off. The longer we wait, the worse the situation gets and the more growth will slow because additional capital will need to be allocated to deleveraging as opposed to growth.

The other way to look at it is that those who make strong fundamental cases against a company, commodity, currency or economy are often eventually correct. Nobody can tell if a bear market is around the next corner. But a bear market is certainly around one corner in the not-so-distant future. Sound arguments can be made from both fundamental and technical perspectives. 

The Fundamental Argument

The world’s four largest economies are experiencing aging populations, slowing consumer spending and deflation. Since that’s already been deemed the biggest threat to markets let’s move on to another potential factor, which is the U.S. election. Of the remaining candidates, there are several common themes: increased financial regulation, reduced free trade and higher taxes. These themes don’t apply to all candidates and names aren’t being mentioned to avoid a political slant. The point is that regardless of who wins, there will be pressure on stocks or there could be pressure on stocks as the election approaches.

Another factor is the job market. This shouldn’t seem like a concern with the unemployment rate at 5%, but that’s the U-3 version. The U-6, which includes the unemployed, underemployed and discouraged, is 9.8%. And the labor force participation rate stands at 63%, which is the lowest reading since the 1970s. 

The minimum hourly pay raise to $15 is gaining momentum, but there is a good chance it will backfire. Companies aren’t delivering strong top-line growth, instead relying on bottom-line performance in order to drive stock prices higher. One way to drive the bottom line is to cut costs, and this will have the opposite impact. Costs will increase, which will negatively impact earnings.

Most important from a fundamental standpoint is the Federal Reserve. Fed Chief Janet Yellen wants to hike, but she knows it’s dangerous because the global economy is much weaker than most people think. At the same time there is a lot of hawkish pressure on her right now and if she hikes the interest rate, it could put pressure on stocks and lead to a bear market. Then again, if this occurred, she could simply move rates back down. This is why a bear market might not be around the next corner, but it’s definitely around a not-so-distant corner due to economic fundamentals. 

The Technical Argument

The S&P 500 is still approximately 4% off its 52-week high and hasn’t made a new high for ten months. It should also be pointed out that when the S&P 500 goes 210 days without a new high, the average return over the next year is -3.01%.

According to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, there would be a lot of resistance at 2,060-2,100 and 1,970 would be the panic level. On the other hand, he also believes that another move to new highs could lead to significant upside potential. If you want the simple version, if there is no new high made in May, he sees a bear market.

The Bottom Line

Whether you look at this situation fundamentally or technically, a bear market is a realistic risk. That said, don’t forget that the Federal Reserve is still by far the most powerful factor. 

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040516/there-bear-market-around-corner.asp