Sean Ross 2016年4月5日
巴西是一個令投資者和公共政策投資者著迷的國家。即使有的話也很少有新興市場經濟體在2011年到2016年之間經歷如此多的政治和貨幣動蕩。這是一個增長、通脹、衰退、腐敗總統醜聞和貨幣市場波動的故事。
2011年國際對雷亞爾價值高估的擔憂
在2011年中期，專家的共識是巴西雷亞爾是世界上價值最高估的貨幣。2011年4月的聯合國貿易和發展會議（UNCTAD）指出巴西雷亞爾的交易超過其長期最佳價值的80%。
在其發佈的聲明中，UNCTAD指出巴西雷亞爾的價值自20世紀90年代的高通脹結束以來一直長期被高估，這一趨勢在2008年金融危機之後升級。潛在的一個原因是因為以雷亞爾定價的巴西資產和國内資產在外匯市場需求的增加。雷亞爾兌美元在2011年達到1.5：1的高點。
正如UNCTAD指出的，貨幣價格高估造成消費和投資決定不協調。它還對巴西的財政政策造成壓力，因為貨幣價值高估使政府債務融資更加昂貴。
巴西帶著困擾進入2012年。巴西家庭的生活成本在增加，迫使該國提高利率以適應更高的通貨膨脹。然而，幾乎所有的其他主要貨幣都在貶值以適應寬松貨幣政策。這使得巴西雷亞爾在國内市場貶值而在所有國際市場升值。
2012年到2014年有針對性的貶值
2012年到2014年之間巴西貨幣當局進行了強有力的貨幣貶值。財政部長Guido Mantega多年來一直呼籲更高的通貨膨脹，但是當時贊成該政策的寥寥無幾。
目標利率在2011年8月首次下跌，但是巴西雷亞爾首次貶值出現在2012年中期。央行設定了到2015年之前2.5雷亞爾兌1美元的政策目標，但是這一目標可能太過激進。在僅僅11個月中，利率下降12.5%達到7.32%的歷史最低點。2012年10月，雷亞爾兌美元已經達到了2：1左右。
2013年國際股票投資者將其註意力從新興市場轉移，主要是因為美國股票市場增長強勁。盡管2014年預期的目標是維持價格穩定，但是雷亞爾持續下跌。雷亞爾兌美元的價值在2014年第三季度下跌9.5%，在所有新興市場貨幣中表現第二差，僅僅好於盧佈。
2015年的經濟動蕩
2014年末和2015年初雷亞爾抛售的一部分原因是國際投資者廣泛認為總統Dilma Rousseff是反市場的。事實上，許多重大的決策都是Rousseff戰勝競争對手Marina Silva後發生的。
雷亞爾在2015年出現大幅下跌。根據官方測量，達到11%的通脹和認為Rousseff領導政府失敗的影響對經濟增長造成巨大壓力。在12月末，巴西不顧財政巨大壓力提高了公務員的最低工資。投資者的回應是在國際市場大量抛售雷亞爾。雷亞爾在年末時對美元超過4：1，是2002年來的最高水平。
2016年總統 Lula被逮捕，雷亞爾升值
2016年3月4日，巴西爆發政治醜聞，前總統Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva因腐敗和洗錢被逮捕。雖然消息非常引人註目但是卻不讓人意外，Lula長期以來一直涉嫌在對巴西石油巨頭Petrobras調查中收取數十億美元的賄賂和回扣。
在消息發佈後巴西雷亞爾開始上漲，大概是因為對巴西政治動蕩結束、經濟增長的信心。巴西的政客是否有扭轉乾坤的信心還有待觀察。總體看來，巴西雷亞爾是一個很好的研究經濟和政治互相影響的案例。
The Brazilian Real: A Case Study (PBR)
By Sean Ross | Updated April 05, 2016
Brazil is a fascinating and informative country for investors and public policy analysts. Few, if any, of the world's emerging market economies demonstrated as much political or monetary turmoil in the five years between 2011 and 2016. It's a tale of growth, inflation, recession, corruption, presidential scandals and, ultimately, huge swings in currency markets.
2011: International Concern About an Overvalued Real
During mid-2011, the expert consensus was that the Brazilian real (BRL) ranked among the most overvalued currencies in the world. A United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) concluded in April 2011 that Brazil's currency was trading 80% higher than its long-term "optimal" level (the term "optimal" here referred to an original market value-based concept introduced by UNCTAD, whereby an efficiently-priced currency should be able to reallocate an economy's resources toward sectors with the highest productivity).
In its published opinion, the UNCTAD argued Brazil's real had been chronically overvalued ever since the end of Brazil's high inflationary period in the 1990s, though the trend escalated following the 2008 international financial crisis. One potential cause was an increased foreign demand for Brazilian assets and domestic products which, because they are priced in real, bid up the cost for Brazil's currency in forex markets. The real hit a high point of R$1.50 per U.S. dollar (USD) in 2011.
Overvaluation matters because, as the UNCTAD pointed out, a mispriced currency creates dis-coordination between spending and investing decisions. It also puts a squeeze on Brazilian fiscal policy, since government debt financing is more expensive in a state of currency overvaluation.
Brazil entered 2012 in a troubling situation. The cost of living for Brazilian families was increasing, forcing the country to adopt high interest rates to put clamps on domestic inflation. However, almost every other major global currency was devaluing in the face of easy monetary policy. The effect was a BRL losing value at home and gaining value in all international markets.
2012-2014: Targeted Devaluation
The period between 2012 and 2014 saw strong devaluation efforts by Brazilian monetary authorities. Finance Minister Guido Mantega had been calling for more inflation for years, but pro-inflation policies were politically unpopular.
Targeted interest rates first started to fall in August 2011, but the BRL really began losing steam in the middle of 2012. The central bank set a policy goal of R$2.50 per USD by 2015, but the pump priming may have been too aggressive. Interest rates fell from 12.5% to a then-record low 7.32% in just 11 months. By October 2012, the real was already around R$2.00 per USD.
International equity investors turned their attention from emerging markets in 2013, largely due to strong stock market growth in the United States. Despite expectations of price stability in 2014, the real showed continued weakness. BRL prices declined against the dollar by 9.5% in the third quarter of 2014, the second-worst performance among emerging markets behind the Russian ruble.
2015: Economic Turmoil
Part of the BRL selloff in late 2014 and early 2015 was in response to strong polling for President Dilma Rousseff. Rousseff was widely considered anti-market by international investors. In fact, many significant runoffs were timed directly after Rousseff polled well against then-rival Marina Silva.
The real was in free fall by the end of 2015. Rampant inflation, which reached approximately 11% according to official measurements, had combined with a perceived failure by the Rousseff-led government to pursue pro-growth policies. In late December, Brazil raised the minimum wage for civil servants despite huge fiscal challenges. Investors responded by dumping real in currency markets, unconvinced the political class was willing to tackle economic problems with any seriousness. The BRL would end the year above R$4.00 per USD, the highest since 2002.
2016: President Lula Detained; Real Soars
On March 4, 2016, Brazil was rocked by political scandal when federal police detained former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ("Lula") for corruption and money laundering. Though striking in its consequence, the news wasn't a complete surprise; President Lula had long been linked to an investigation involving Brazil's semi-public oil powerhouse Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) and billions of dollars in bribes and kickbacks.
The Brazilian real surged upon news of the arrest, presumably out of hope that Brazil's political turmoil would cease to hinder pro-growth policy and restore faith in the country. It remains to be seen if Brazil's politicians have the fortitude to turn things around. If nothing else, the Brazilian real is a fine case study in the intersection of economics and politics.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/040516/brazilian-real-case-study-pbr.asp