Blackrock Author 2016年4月6日
年初時對全球經濟衰退的擔憂重創了市場。然而現在這種擔憂已經減弱。
那麼這個季度等待我們的是什麼呢？我和我的同事在新的BlackRock投資機構出版物中發佈了《2016年第二季度全球投資展望》。我們的展望圍繞著三個關鍵主題，這三個主題很可能在第二季度影響金融市場。
主題1：未來低回報
我們處在一個低回報的環境。長時間的低利率使投資者為了獲得收益願意承擔更大的風險，推高資產價格。持續的量化寬松和負利率政策只會繼續這一趨勢。
現在的市場估值越高意味著在未來的回報越低。例如，BlackRock為驗證未來回報進行的多資產“資本市場假想”現在處於危機後的低點。但是要牢記我們處在一個低回報，但是不是無回報的環境。這使投資者陷入兩難境地，在接受低回報或者通過增加股票、信貸和利率風險中選擇。
主題2：貨幣政策分歧正在放緩
自2014年以來，貨幣政策分歧受到市場的廣泛關註，導致美元的持續上漲。對美聯儲加息與歐洲央行和日本央行進一步量化寬松的預期引發了兩年期國債收益的不同。
然而，利率日益擴大的分歧還沒有發生。我們相信未來的分歧將會更加微妙。歐元區和日本突破負利率的限制，歐洲和日本的進一步量化寬松和美國的經濟增長與利率上升將引發進一步的分歧。
市場暗示：美聯儲緊縮的速率放緩使美元停止上漲，這對風險資產尤其是新興市場來說是個好兆頭。一旦美聯儲再次開始加息，美元只會恢複其上漲姿態。
主題3：波動和分散
當今的市場以模仿交易為特點。流行的交易是增持美元和減持新興市場和大宗商品資產。在這種情況下我們發現兩個問題。首先，許多交易都是高度相關的。這就意味著投資組合可能具有比表現出來的更高的風險。其次，貨幣政策正常化很可能增加波動。我們的調查表明央行開始增加利率和減少負債的時候，波動和分散往往在貨幣政策週期後期增加。
這增加了未來市場領導地位急劇反轉和轉換的風險。我們已經開始可以看到贏家和輸家之間的差距的增大。根據我們的分析，衡量個別股票收益分化的全球股市橫向分散最近達到了四年最高水平。其他資產類別也呈現出類似的趨勢。
我們發現隨著美聯儲加息和市場更加關註尾部潛伏的風險，波動和分散開始正常化。這些風險中包括人民幣貶值和英國退出歐盟，以及新興市場在經濟增長預期中反彈或者溫和上漲的風險。
第三個主題表明投資者不能再依賴潮水上漲才起航所有船只。在分散重新出現的資本市場中股票選擇非常重要。
3 Themes That Will Shape Markets This Quarter
By Blackrock Author | April 06, 2016
Fears of a global recession hit markets hard at the start of the year. Yet the anxiety has waned.
What’s in store for the quarter ahead? My colleagues and I provide a roadmap in our new BlackRock Investment Institute publication “Global Investment Outlook: Q2 2016.” Our outlook centers around three key themes likely to shape financial markets in the second quarter.
Theme 1: Low returns ahead
We are living in a low-return world. A long period of low rates has encouraged investors to assume greater risk in the stretch for yield, inflating asset prices. Ongoing quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rate policies are only continuing this trend.
Higher valuations today typically mean lower returns in the future. For example, BlackRock’s five-year “Capital Market Assumptions” for future returns of various asset classes are near post-crisis lows. But it’s important to remember we are in a low-return, but not no-return, environment. This poses a dilemma for investors: Accept lower returns or dial up risk by taking more equity, credit and interest rate exposure.
Theme 2: Monetary policy divergence is slowing
Monetary policy divergence has been a clear market theme since 2014, sparking a persistent appreciation in the U.S. dollar. Expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) liftoff contrasted with further easing measures from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and this has been reflected in the diverging path of two-year bond yields.
However, the era of ever-widening policy divergence through interest rates is likely behind us. We believe future divergence will be more subtle. The eurozone and Japan are reaching the limits of negative rates, with further divergence likely to be driven by incremental QE in Europe and Japan as well the trajectories of U.S. growth and rate increases.
The market implications: A slower expected pace of Fed tightening is pausing the dollar’s rise, and this bodes well for risk assets and emerging markets in particular. The dollar will likely only resume its uptrend once markets start pricing in faster Fed rate increases.
Theme 3: Volatility and dispersion
Markets today are characterized by a lot of “me-too” trades. Popular trades have included overweighting the U.S. dollar and underweighting emerging market and commodity assets. We see two problems with this picture. First, many of these trades are highly correlated. This means portfolios may be riskier than they appear. Second, monetary policy normalization is likely to increase volatility. Volatility and dispersion tend to rise late in monetary policy cycles when central banks start raising rates and shrinking their balance sheets, our research suggests.
This raises the risk of rapid momentum reversals and shifts in market leadership going forward. We are already starting to see the gap between winners and losers widen again. Cross-sectional dispersion in global equities — a measure of the variation in returns across individual securities — recently reached its highest level in four years, according to our analysis. Other asset classes are displaying similar trends.
We see volatility and dispersion rising to normalized levels as the Fed lifts rates and markets pay more attention to lurking tail risks. These risks include the downside ones of a Chinese yuan devaluation and a U.K. exit from the European Union, as well as the upside risks of an emerging market rebound or a moderate rise in inflation expectations on improving growth prospects.
The investing takeaway of this third theme: Investors can no longer rely on a rising tide lifting all boats. Security selection is crucial as dispersion re-emerges in asset markets.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/markets/040616/3-themes-will-shape-markets-quarter.asp