OPEC下調石油需求預估 油價進一步下跌

週四原油價格再度下降，使得供應過剩的情況進一步惡化。

紐約商品交易所五月交付的輕質低硫原油的價格下跌0.54美元，達到了每桶41.22美元。倫敦ICE期貨交易所六月到期的佈倫特原油下跌了1.4%，跌至每桶43.55美元。

石油輸出國組織在月報中指出，由於消費減慢，增加了市場過剩的供給量，將2016年需求增幅預估下調5萬桶/日。據推測，2016年的需求將增長120萬桶/日，達到9418萬桶/日。

OPEC表示，由於拉丁美洲的經濟勢頭下降以及中國增長的不確定性，對石油需求的預期做出了小幅調整。

OPEC表示，拉丁美洲經濟發展的不確定性和中國經濟增長放緩對石油需求的影響是巨大的，尤其是中國。

中國三月的進出口數據皆出乎意料，其出口量同比增長11.5%，進口量同比下降7.6%。原油進口量增長13%，達到3260萬桶，約合每天771萬桶。

需求的增長主要來源於戰略儲備。越來越多的私人煉油廠，即茶壺煉油廠推動了進口量的增長。

安迅思中國研究總監李莉表示：“茶壺煉油廠將成為中國進口的重要組成部分，隨著獲得的進口配額越來越多，這些煉油廠將繼續發展壯大。”

近兩年來，原油供應過剩導致油價不斷下跌，而這一情況仍會延續一段時間。

截至4月8日，美國原油庫存在一週內增加660萬桶，超過了預期的180萬桶。最新的庫存數據已經超過了5.36億桶，創下了歷史新高。但自2014年九月以來，原油產量首次跌至900萬桶/日以下。

在當前的市場中，交易員都忽略了金融危機，而庫存則成為了衡量基础平衡的重要指標。

所有人都在關註週日的多哈會議，主要制造商將在會上讨論是否要凍結產量。也有人預測，集團將在伊朗的石油產量將至制裁前水平之後才會進行產量凍結。

市場對此的觀點各不相同。有人認為將產量凍結在當前水平有利於需求趕超供應。而另一些則認為這改變不了供大於求的現狀，油價需要繼續維持在較低水平，從而淘汰弱者。

法國興業銀行首席石油分析家認為：“週日之前，油價會達到最高點，會議結果越讓人失望，油價下跌的風險越大。”“The higher prices go before Sunday, the紐約商品交易所重整了基準原油，基準汽油合約下跌了85.00001點，跌至每加侖1.5210美元，而五月柴油則下跌了65個點，跌至1.2591美元。

ICE五月汽油的成交價為每噸372.75美元，較週三下跌了4.25美元。

Oil prices eroded further after OPEC warns of waning demand

Crude-oil prices headed lower on Thursday, suppressed by worries of an expanding supply glut after the world’s oil cartel warned that demand growth could slow.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange CLK6, -1.32%  , light, sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $41.22 a barrel, down $0.54, or 1.3% in the Globex electronic session. June Brent crude LCOM6, -1.45%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.63, or 1.4%, to $43.55 a barrel.

In its closely watched monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for 2016 oil-demand growth by 50,000 barrels a day. Demand for the commodity will now rise by 1.20 million barrels a day to 94.18 million barrels a day, according to its projections.

The downgrade, though small, is underpinned by slower economic momentum in Latin America and uncertainties in China’s growth, OPEC said.

“There is great uncertainty as to whether weakening economic activity in Latin America and signals of a slowdown in China will be reflected in oil-demand data, especially for China,” the organization said.

China’s exports unexpectedly rose 11.5% in March from the previous year, while imports declined 7.6%, a less-than-expected drop. Crude imports rose 13% to 32.6 million tons, however, equivalent to 7.71 million barrels a day.

Much of China’s thirst for crude comes from continuing efforts to fill up strategic reserves. A growing number of private refiners, known as teapots, is also driving up imports.

“The teapots have become an indispensable part of China’s imports and they will likely get stronger as the government issues importing quotas to more of them,” said Li Li, a research director with ICIS China.

An oversupply of crude has sunk prices for nearly two years and the latest expansion in U.S. crude stocks have stoked fears the rout might last longer.

U.S. crude inventories grew 6.6 million barrels in the week ended April 8, surpassing the expected 1.8 million barrel increase. The latest addition brought commercial stockpiles to a new high of more than 536 million barrels. However, production fell below 9 million barrels a day for the first time since September 2014.

“We think inventories are a key measure of the current weak fundamental balance in the market that the traders ignore at their financial peril,” said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst.

All eyes will be on the Doha meeting on Sunday in which key producers are set to discuss a possible production freeze. There is also speculation the group will delay the freeze for Iran until its output reaches pre-sanction levels.

Market views on the issue have been mixed. Some say a freeze at the recent level will allow demand to catch up. Others argue it will hardly chip away at the glut and that oil prices need to stay lower for longer to weed out weaker competitors.

bigger the downside risk becomes if the outcome is in some way disappointing,” said Michael Wittner, chief oil analyst at Société Générale.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for May RBK6, -0.63%   — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell85.00001points to $1.5210 a gallon, while May diesel traded at $1.2591, 65 points lower.

ICE gasoil for May changed hands at $372.75 a metric ton, down $4.25 from Wednesday’s settlement.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-eroded-further-after-opec-warns-of-waning-demand-2016-04-14