現在全球經濟有多脆弱？

Dan Moskowitz

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）認為當前的全球經濟非常脆弱。IMF的擔憂程度甚至到了要求20國集團協調出一個計劃以說明那些最脆弱的國家。這不是第一次發生這樣的情況，但是這次和以往大不相同。

IMF的2016年預期

IMF最近將2016年全球經濟增長預測從3.6%降低到3.4%。這一預期可能仍然高於最終結果，做出進一步下調也不會使任何人感到吃驚。

IMF指出了一些令其擔憂的原因，其中包括石油價格下跌、中國出現25年來最低的經濟增長速度、地區因素和美國不同尋常的寬鬆貨幣政策。

中國是一個關鍵因素，因為它是多年來全球經濟增長的最大動量。此外，許多國家都有對中國的出口貿易。如果中國經濟增長放緩，那麼這些國家也將受到影響，這將有可能蔓延到全球。也許可能已經出現這一趨勢，只是還不太明顯。

IMF預測中國2016年的經濟增長速度將為6.3%，而2017年將為6%。中國2015年的經濟增長速率為6.9%。因此如果IMF的預測正確，甚至是接近正確數值，那麼中國經濟增長速度正在下降。這毫無疑問將會給全球經濟造成負面影響。你必須還要知道中國的經濟數字不規範，這意味著中國本質上的增長速度可能只是4%。IMF認為中國需要一段時間才能達到再平衡。不幸的是，這將對其他新興經濟體造成負面影響。

從油價下跌的角度來說，其原因是供應過剩和需求減少，而需求下降與中國有直接關係。通常情況下，油價下跌將會導致需求增加，但是現在卻不是這樣，因為在過去六年中人口老齡化和過多的債務已經給全球帶來沉重負擔。這導致需要進行去債務化，而持續經濟增長和去債務化不能同時出現。

地區因素是不可預測的。因此，不能做出確定的斷定。

在美國，貨幣政策導致債務過高和資產價格混亂。我們不能確定美聯儲的下一步舉措是什麼，但是根據IMF的判斷，融通性貨幣政策即將結束。

IMF認為最大的亮點出現在印度，但是由於受到中國的影響印度不能在近期成為全球經濟增長的催化劑。

IMF也發現了一些可能出現轉機的因素，包括巴西、俄羅斯和中東，這些國家和地區都已經遭受了經濟不景氣。

貨幣刺激：過去和現在

在2009年，IMF呼籲各國共同努力防止出現經濟蕭條。由於當時央行儲備充足，他們取得了成功，當時被稱為“可操作的空間很大”。這些推遲了經濟問題的出現，但是同時因為超高的債務水平使問題更加嚴重。所有的債務必須進行去債務化，否則全球經濟將因為這一因素不能穩定增長。

如果你希望能再次出現急救措施，那麼你可能要失望了，因為沒有足夠的操作空間。全球現在有五家央行嘗試了負利率政策，但是到目前為止他們都沒取得理想的效果。IMF正在呼籲公衆進行投資，但是這不能產生持續影響。唯一合理的方案是通過利率正常化進行修正、使股市淘汰輸家、這將增加贏家的市場份額、為儲戶提供比投機者更多的福利、在長時間內償還債務，這些將使未來的繁榮變得有生命力。

總結

IMF認為全球經濟現在非常脆弱。除非潛在條件非常令人不安，否則IMF不會發出這樣的信息。最近我們已經發現了所有市場都在劇烈波動。極端的波動之後通常會出現市場崩潰。這並不是說股市將會崩盤。然而，這是我們需要小心謹慎的一個原因。

Just How Vulnerable is the Global Economy?

By Dan Moskowitz

According to the IMF, the global economy is highly vulnerable. The IMF is even concerned enough that it has requested that the G20 coordinate a plan to help protect the most vulnerable nations. This isn’t the first time this has happened, but today’s conditions are much different.

IMF’s 2016 Expectations

The IMF recently lowered its 2016 global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.6%. This projection could still eventually prove to be high, and further downgrades should not shock anyone throughout the year.

The IMF points to several key reasons to be concerned, which include lower oil prices, China growing at its slowest pace in 25 years, geopolitics, and “the exit from extraordinary accommodative monetary policy in the United States.”

China is a key factor here because it has been the biggest driver of global growth for many years. Additionally, many countries export to China. If China’s economy slows, then so do the economies of all those exporting nations, which then has the potential to lead to global contagion. It’s possible that we’re already in the beginning of this phase, but it has yet to be made obvious.

The IMF expects China’s GDP growth to come in at 6.3% for 2016, followed by 6% in 2017. China’s economy grew at a 6.9% clip in 2015. Therefore, if the IMF is correct, or even close to being correct, then China’s economy is slowing, not accelerating. This, without a doubt, will have a negative impact on global growth. You also have to consider that China’s economic numbers aren’t regulated, which means that China could essentially be growing at a 4% clip and nobody would know. The IMF expects China’s rebalancing to take time to play out. Unfortunately, this will negatively impact other emerging markets.

As far as lower oil prices are concerned, this relates to oversupply and reduced demand, the latter of which relates to China. In most cases, lower oil prices leads to increased demand, but this isn’t the case today due to aging populations and so much debt having been taken on around the world over the past six years. This has led to the need to deleverage, and sustainable growth and deleveraging do not go hand-in-hand.

Geopolitics are unpredictable. Therefore, no conviction-based assertions can be made.

In the United States, monetary policy has led to excessive debts and distorted asset prices. There is no guarantee as to what the Federal Reserve will do next, but according to the IMF, that highly accommodative monetary policy is over.

The biggest bright spot the IMF sees is India, but India is not expected to act as an upside catalyst for the global economy in the near future due to being negatively impacted by China.

The IMF does see a few potential turnaround stories, including Brazil, Russia and the Middle East, all of which have suffered from economic distress.

Monetary Stimulus: Then & Now

Back in 2009, the IMF called for a coordinated effort to prevent a global depression. They got what they wanted thanks to plenty of central bank ammunition being available, otherwise known as “a lot of room to move.” All this really did was postpone the inevitable and made the situation worse due to record debt levels. All that debt must be deleveraged, and the global economy will not be able to sustain growth as this transpires.

If you’re hoping for another bailout, you might be out of luck, simply because there is not a lot of room to move. Five central banks around the world have attempted negative interest rates, but so far they have been a dismal failure. That leaves very few options on the table. The IMF is calling for public investment, but this won't have a sustainable impact. The only logical option is to take the medicine now by normalizing interest rates; let the stock market weed out the losers, which will increase market share for the winners; begin rewarding savers more than speculators; and pay off our debts for the long haul, which will make the next boom an organic one.

The Bottom Line

The IMF feels as though the global economy is highly vulnerable. The IMF doesn’t release such a statement unless underlying conditions are troubling. We have recently seen extremely volatility throughout markets. Extreme volatility usually precedes market crashes. This isn’t to say the stock market will crash. However, it is reason for caution.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030116/just-how-vulnerable-global-economy.asp