2016年黃金價格上漲的四個原因

 Elvis Picardo

2016年前五個月金融行業的發展出現了許多令人意想不到的結果，最大驚喜仍然是黃金投資的熱度恢復。截止到2016年5月11日，黃金已經上漲了20.3%，而標準普爾500指數只上漲了1%，,湯森路透CRB商品指數也只上漲了4%。黃金在2016年第一季度的表現尤為使人影響深刻，17%的增長是最近30年中的最大單季度漲幅。下面是四個黃金在2016年價格上漲的原因。

1.美元回落：黃金歷來與美元都是成反比關係，美元強勢將會壓低黃金價格，而美元疲軟將會導致黃金價格上漲。在2015年尾，對美聯儲將在2016年進行4次25個基準點的加息的預測使美元在外匯市場佔據了統治地位。由於歐洲和日本等主要經濟體將繼續實行量化寬鬆，投資者認為這種貨幣政策差異將導致美元在2016年繼續升高。但是之後發生了未能預料到的事件。對經濟增長放緩將席卷美國的擔憂，主要是來自中國，導致全球股票在1月出現了有史以來最差的年初表現。雖然市場已經穩定，這些問題還是導致市場參與者降低了2016年美聯儲利率上漲的預期。這導致美元回落，促使包括黃金在內的許多大宗商品價格上漲。

2.避險吸引力：黃金在近年來逐漸減弱的避險投資吸引力在2016年第一季度在很大程度上回歸。除了2016年前六週的巨大市場波動，投資者還不得不面對許多其他事件的影響，例如佈魯塞爾恐怖襲擊和之前發生巴黎恐怖襲擊、日益增長的歐洲難民危機、中東地區的政治動蕩、大宗商品和能源價格崩潰、投資者對歐洲銀行系統的不信任，黃金是這些事件中的最大受益者。 

3.負利率政策：1月29日，日本央行將利率設定到了零以下，加入了利用負利率刺激經濟增長的國家行列。負利率增加黃金上漲趨勢，因為持有黃金的機會成本將會降低。同時，投資者將更情願持有黃金，因為至少將獲得一個獲利的可能性，這比在負利率債券和其他工具中獲得固定虧損更容易接受。 

4.實際需求：上述因素導致對黃金實際需求的增加。黃金ETF資產今年增加23%達到1800噸，該數字為2013年12月以來的最高點。截止到5月4日，紐約商品交易所的黃金未平倉合約數量達到2011年1月以來最高點。世界黃金協會2月的報告指出，由於央行的購買和強勁的消費需求，2015年第四季度的黃金需求增加4%達到10個季度的最高點。

總結

雖然在過去幾個月接連上漲，人們對黃金前景的看法仍然分歧嚴重。包括Paul Singer和Stan Druckenmiller在內的主流對沖基金經理認為黃金還有很大的上揚空間，而高盛最近下調了對黃金目標價格的預測，其12個月1150每盎司的黃金目標價格預測低於當前1277每盎司。在任何情況下，黃金反彈的真正原因都來自美聯儲。美聯儲在2015年12月進行了10年來的首次聯邦儲備金利率上調，許多市場觀察者認為第二次加息將最早發生在2016年6月。

Gold is Glittering in 2016: Here are 4 Reasons Why (GLD)

By Elvis Picardo, CFA

While the first five months of 2016 have already been replete with unexpected developments on the financial front, one of the biggest surprises has been gold regaining its luster as an investment. As of May 11, 2016, the precious metal had advanced 20.3% for the year, compared with a meager 1% gain for the S&P 500 and a 4% increase for the Thomson Reuters CRB Commodity Index. Gold's performance was especially impressive in the first quarter of 2016, when it surged 17% for its biggest quarterly gain in three decades. Here are four reasons why gold is glittering in 2016.

1.Dollar pullback: Gold has historically had an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar - a strong USD depresses the price of gold, while a weak USD results in higher gold prices. As 2015 drew to a close, the USD was reigning supreme in forex markets, based on widespread expectations for as many four 25 basis-point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2016. With major economies like Europe and Japan still on the quantitative easing path, this monetary policy divergence was expected to propel the greenback relentlessly higher in 2016. But then something unforeseen happened. Concerns about slower economic growth, which had hitherto centered on China, engulfed the U.S. as well, resulting in global equities recording their worst start to a year in January. While markets have since stabilized, these concerns have caused market participants to ratchet down their expectations for Fed rate increases in 2016, to one or perhaps two hikes of a quarter percentage point. The USD has retreated as a result, boosting prices higher for many commodities, with gold in the forefront of this advance. 

2.Safe haven appeal: Gold's appeal as a safe haven investment, which seemed to have been waning in recent years, came back in a big way in the first quarter of 2016. In addition to tremendous market volatility in the first six weeks of 2016, investors had to contend with a number of other developments - the terror attacks in Brussels, which occurred just a few months after the Paris attacks; the mushrooming refugee crisis in Europe; geopolitical rumblings in the Middle East; a collapse in commodity and energy prices; and worries about the banking sector in Europe and the U.S. Gold was the biggest beneficiary of this upsurge in uncertainty. 

3.Negative interest rates: On January 29, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly set its policy rate below zero, joining a growing number of nations - about two dozen at last count - that have set negative interest rates in order to stimulate their economies. Negative interest rates help gold because the opportunity cost of holding bullion is reduced. As well, investors may prefer holding gold because at least the prospect of some gain exists, which is preferable to locking in a definite loss on a bond or instrument that has a negative yield. 

4.Physical demand: The combination of the above factors has led to surging physical demand for gold. Assets in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased 23% this year to 1,800 tons, the highest since December 2013, after three straight years of declines for gold ETF assets. As of May 4, open interest in Comex gold futures was at its highest since January 2011. The World Gold Council reported in February that gold demand in the fourth quarter of 2015 rose 4% to its highest in 10 quarters, thanks to buying by central banks and robust consumer demand.

The Bottom Line

Although the bull camp has seen its ranks swell in recent months, gold continues to be a polarizing subject. While leading hedge fund managers such as Paul Singer and Stan Druckenmiller are of the view that the precious metal has much more upside, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its price targets for gold; its 12-month target of $1,150 per ounce is 10% lower than gold's current price of $1,277. In any case, the true test of gold's resilience will come when the Federal Reserve - which in December 2015 raised the federal funds rate for the first time in a decade - finally makes its second rate hike, which some market watchers believe could potentially occur as soon as June 2016.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051316/gold-glittering-2016-here-are-4-reasons-why-gld.asp