油價突破48美元 分析家仍未看好

亞洲交易時間週二上午，原油供應中斷，全球市場呈現供不應求的趨勢，因此油價出現進一步上漲。

但分析家認為，見利抛售和對市場缺乏信心者大有人在，因此油價很難繼續走高。

紐約商品交易所，六月交付的輕質低硫原油期貨上漲了1%，達到每桶48.18美元。倫敦ICE交易所，七月交付的佈倫特原油成交價為49.30美元，上漲了0.5%。

近兩年來，全球石油一直處於供大於求的狀態，因此油價在今年初跌至每桶26美元。但加拿大、尼日利亞、利比亞等地區的供應中斷緩解了這一狀況，前景似乎很美好。

ANZ調查機構認為：“持續的原油供應中斷會在短期內擡高油價。”

油價在今年二月創下了歷史最低記錄，當前的油價較最低價格上漲了85%。但長時間的低油價大大降低了上遊制造商的熱情，美國頁岩油已經連續減產多月。在5月6日那一週，美國原油產量減少了880萬桶/天，其產量是2014年9月以來的最低記錄。

其他地區的石油產量也有所下降。今年四月，中國的原油產量下降了5.6%，目前為每天1660萬桶。

高盛投資公司在週一的報告中指出：“石油市場由供應過剩轉為供不應求的時間比我們想象的要早得多。全球石油市場很可能在五月份完全轉變為供不應求的狀況。”這些看漲的評論推動WTI原油繼續走高，現已漲至去年11月以來的最高點。

但銀行也提醒投資者小心逆向趨勢。美國、北海、伊拉克、伊朗等地區的產量可能會迅速回升，這足以彌補石油的短缺。

銀行認為，石油赤字仍會在2016年下半年出現，但石油短缺量預計由90萬桶/天降至40萬桶/天。這意味著在2017年上半年，全球市場仍會回歸供大於求。

雖然油價即將沖破50美元大關，但一些分析家認為，上升趨勢很快就會結束。

輝立期貨的Avtar Sandhu認為：“50美元是一個關鍵的心理價位。事實上，原油市場仍處於供大於求的狀態。”

Sandhu說道：“投資者需要的是穩步、持久的上升。見利抛售的人們會將油價拉回45美元的水平。”

本週，美國原油庫存可能會減少300萬桶。美國能源署的官方數據將在週三發佈。

Oil prices push past $48-a-barrel, while analysts wait for the selloff

Oil prices gained further traction in early Asian trade Tuesday, buoyed by the ongoing supply outages and bullish outlook that the global market has flipped into a deficit.

However, analysts expect profit-taking and lack of confidence in the rally will likely hinder prices from climbing higher.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM6, +0.92%  traded at $48.18, up $0.47, or 1%, in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON6, +0.49%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.26, or 0.5%, to $49.30 a barrel.

Global oil production has outstripped demand for nearly two years, causing prices to drop as low as $26 a barrel earlier this year. However, production disruptions in Canada, Nigeria and Libya has helped chip away some of the glut, prompting a rosier outlook.

“The increasing intensity in supply-side disruptions in the oil market should see prices well supported in the short term,” said ANZ Research.

While prices have risen 85% since dropping to its 13-year low in February, the lingering low prices have also made it uneconomical for many upstream producers to keeping pumping, sending U.S. shale production on a steady decline in recent months. In the week ended May 6, U.S. crude production fell to 8.8 million barrels a day, lowest level since September 2014.

Elsewhere, production of crude has also dropped. In April, China’s crude production dipped 5.6% to 16.6 million tons or 4.05 million barrels a day.

“The oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to being in deficit much earlier than we expected,” said Goldman Sachs in a report Monday, adding that the global oil market likely shifted into a deficit in May. The bullish comments pushed WTI crude to its highest settlement since early November on Monday.

“The $50 mark is more of a psychological barrier. The truth is, there is still plenty of oil in the market and the glut is still there.”Avtar Sandhu, Phillip Futures.

However, the bank also warned of headwinds. The return of some of the production outages and higher-than-previously expected U.S., North Sea, Iraq and Iran production could more than offset the persistence of some of the disruptions.

“As a result, while we still forecast a deficit in second half of 2016, it is now smaller than we had expected at 400,000 barrels a day versus 900,000 barrels a day previously. This also leads us to expect that the global market imbalance will shift back into surplus in first half of 2017,” said the bank.

Although prices are making their way up toward the $50-a-barrel mark, some analysts said the rally might be short-lived.

“The $50 mark is more of a psychological barrier. The truth is, there is still plenty of oil in the market and the glut is still there,” said Avtar Sandhu, chief commodity analyst at Phillip Futures.

“What investors need is a more sustained and stabilized rally. Profit-taking could take prices back down to the $45 level,” saidSandhu.

For this week, investors will be eyeing the weekly U.S. crude stocks and production for cues. In an analysts survey by Platts, U.S. crude stocks likely decreased 3 million barrels last week. Official data by the U.S. Energy Department will be released on Wednesday.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-push-past-48-a-barrel-while-analysts-wait-for-the-selloff-2016-05-17