黃金價格上漲的背後推動因素

在幾年的下跌之後，黃金在今年截止到4月25日已經上漲了17%，使其成為今年最好的投資商品之一。也許更值得註意的是，根據彭博社的數據顯示黃金礦業股票在相同時間內上漲了78%。 

黃金的上漲能持續嗎？

首先讓我們來看一下黃金上漲的催化劑。全球經濟增長放緩的預期、美聯儲的溫和態度和美元疲軟是當前黃金價格上漲的主要動力。

根據彭博社的數據，在年初美國西部輕質原油價格跌到13年低點時迫使其他大宗商品價格也跟著下跌。然而黃金卻在當時展現出回彈性，恢復了其在動蕩時期作為“避風港”的作用。

什麼在推動黃金價格上漲

與此同時，黃金卻在央行政策和真實利率中受益。根據彭博社的數據，黃金通常在真實利率低於零的環境中受益。我們在當前的日本和歐洲許多地方的負利率環境中看到了許多鮮明的例子。

當利率上漲，由於不會產生利潤或者支付費用，黃金投資者需要面對一個機會成本。然而在負利率環境中，投資者在存款時需要支付利息。與其花費這部分資金，許多投資者行選擇投資例如黃金的傳統潛在價值。

因此，雖然確實存在全球經濟和政治不確定性，通貨膨脹和美元疲軟也確實使金價受益，但是今年黃金價格上漲的主要影響因素還是央行政策和真實利率。值得註意的是，日本央行和歐洲央行都已經表示在近期仍將持續寬鬆政策，而美聯儲政策沒有發生變化。

簡而言之，由於對全球經濟增長放緩、油價的不穩定性、英國退歐、美國大選擔憂的增加，我們認為持有黃金仍然將是資產多元化配置的一個良好方法。

你有投資黃金和黃金開採企業嗎？

對於黃金開採企業，需要強調的是投資實物黃金和購買黃金開倉公司股票的不同。與為持有實物黃金的投資者提供信託的黃金ETF不同，黃金開採企業ETF追蹤那些開採公司的股票。

盡管相關度非常高，黃金開採企業從資產配置角度來說並不能很好的代替實物黃金。作為一種大宗商品，黃金能使投資組合多元化，因為它能降低股票市場的相關性，並且它還是一個很好的通脹對沖工具。另一方面，黃金開採企業本質上是一個影響黃金價格的槓桿，它通常會放大黃金價格的上漲或者下跌。

摩根士利丹全球黃金開採企業指數在今年令人難以置信的上漲了76%，但是這主要是由於估值恢復。根據彭博社的數據，黃金開採企業股票在去年遭到重創，該指數從2015年的最高點下跌了45%。現在這些股票沒那麼有吸引力了。與此同時，歷史經驗告訴我們真實利率很難對股票回報產生影響。

然而，我們相信未來黃金和黃金開採企業股票的表現將受到美聯儲政策的影響。如果美聯儲在下幾次會議中態度強硬並加息，黃金和黃金開倉企業的股票將會很可能會表現不佳，因為投資者將轉向收益率更高的資產。然而，如果真實利率維持在低水平，黃金作為股票市場穩定器的儲存價值將維持其吸引力。

The Surprising Force Behind Gold’s Rally

By Blackrock Author | May 12, 2016

After a few years of losses, gold prices have risen 17% year-to-date as of April 25, making it one of the best-performing investments this year. Perhaps more remarkably, gold mining stocks are up nearly 78% during the same period, according to Bloomberg data.

The question now is: can the rally continue?

To begin, let’s take a look at the catalysts for the rally. Market expectations of slower global growth, a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) and weakness in the U.S. dollar have been some of the major drivers behind the current rally.

Earlier in the year, when WTI oil prices dropped to a 13-year low, according to Bloomberg data, it dragged many other commodities with it. Gold, however, showed resiliency, and regained its status as a “safe haven” asset in turbulent times.

What is pushing gold higher

At the same time, gold has benefited from central bank policies and the level of real interest rates (in other words, the interest rate after inflation.) According to Bloomberg data, gold has typically performed best in environments in which real interest rates were low to negative (see the chart below). We are seeing stark examples of this with the current environment of negative interest rates in Japan and many parts of Europe.

When rates are rising, there is an opportunity cost for investors of gold since it doesn’t produce an income stream or pay a dividend. However in a negative rate environment, investors are paying money to issuers to “hold” their money. Rather than pay for that privilege, many investors opt for traditional stores of potential value like gold. 

Thus, while it is true that global economic or political uncertainty, rising inflation and a weak dollar benefit gold prices, the most compelling argument for gold this year may center on central bank policy and the level of real interest rates. Notably, both the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) have made it clear they will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future, and the Fed remains on hold. 

In short, given the increased concerns of global growth slowing, oil price instability, the potential Brexit, and U.S. election, we think owning gold as part of a diversified asset allocation continues to be a sound approach. 

Are you investing in gold or gold miners?

With respect to the gold miners, it is important to highlight the differences in investing in the physical commodity of gold versus buying stock in the companies mining the gold. Unlike gold ETFs that give investors exposure to trusts which hold physical gold, gold miner ETFs track the equity shares of companies that extract the precious metal from the earth. 

Despite being highly correlated, gold miners are not a good substitute for physical gold from an asset allocation perspective. As a commodity, gold is diversifying to a portfolio, because it offers lower correlation to the equity market, and is a better inflation hedge. On the other hand, gold miners are essentially a leveraged play on gold prices and they have tended to magnify strength or weakness in gold prices. 

The MSCI Global Gold Miners Index has rallied an incredible 76% this year, but much of the performance is due to the recovery in valuations: According to Bloomberg data, gold miner stocks were battered last year, with the index down 45% from its 2015 high. Now the stocks are not as attractive. At the same time, real rates have historically had little to no impact on equity returns.

However, we believe the future performance of gold and gold miners will depend in part on the Fed’s policy path. Should the Fed be more hawkish and raise rates in the next couple of meetings, both gold and the miners will likely underperform as investors position towards higher yielding assets. However, if real rates remain low, gold will continue to attract attention as a potential store of value which may offer a ballast to equity market volatility.

本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供

文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/051216/surprising-force-behind-golds-rally.asp