亞洲時間週四早間，美元走高，美國原油庫存突然增加，引發了原油的抛售，油價因此下跌。
紐約商品交易所，六月交付的輕質低硫原油期貨下跌了1.2%，跌至每桶47.63美元。倫敦ICE期貨交易所，七月交付的佈倫特原油下跌了1.4%，跌至每桶48.2美元。
不久前非洲和加拿大出現石油供應中斷，拉丁美洲的制造商陷入了經濟困境，美國石油產量也略有下降，供應過剩的情況因此有所緩解，油價便開始飛速上漲。
週三下午，佈倫特原油即將沖破50美元的大關，是這自去年十一月以來從未出現過的情況。但隨後美聯儲發佈了四月會議記錄，表明美聯儲很可能在下個月提高利率，美元因此飛漲，油價的走勢也因此轉漲為跌。華爾街美元指數下跌了0.01%。
對於國外買家來說，美元走強使得以美元計價的石油更加昂貴。
油價下跌的另一原因是那些見利抛售者，他們目睹了原油上漲到六個月以來的最高點，於是紛紛平倉盈利。
最近幾週，持續不熄的加拿大野火以及尼日利亞和利比亞地區的石油供應中斷將每日的石油產量拉低了100萬桶。委内瑞拉的財政危機影響了該國的石油產業。
澳新銀行高級商品戰略家Daniel Hynes說道：“油價沒有突破50美元意味著市場中的石油足以抵消供應中斷的影響。這些問題懸而未決，供應過剩的危機仍會給油價施加壓力。
此外，一些分析家認為實際油價仍低於生產成本，當前的價格水平無法保證市場平衡。”
伯恩斯坦的一份調查報告顯示，非石油輸出國組織的邊際成本減少了30%，2015年為每桶73美元，而佈倫特原油為52美元，減少了47%。
伯恩斯坦高級分析師Neil Beveridge表示：“油價的跌速遠高於制造成本，因為石油行業的利潤空間已微乎其微。這種情況是很難長久的。若想市場恢複平衡狀態，油價至少要達到每桶60-70美元。”
紐約商品交易所，六月交付的新配方汽油合約下跌了189個點，現跌至每加侖1.6300美元，而六月交付的柴油則下跌了185個點，現跌至1.4646美元。
ICE六月交付的汽油的成交價為每噸464.25美元，較週三下跌了9.5美元。
Oil prices drop on dollar strength, rising inventories
Crude oil prices headed lower in early Asian trade Thursday as a stronger dollar and the unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories triggered selling.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM6, -1.25% traded at $47.63 a barrel, down $0.57, or 1.2%, in the Globex electronic session. July Brent LCON6, -1.59% crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.74, or 1.4%, to $48.20 a barrel.
Oil prices had surged in recent sessions as outages in Africa and Canada, economic woes among Latin American producers, and production declines in the U.S. propelled expectations of a smaller glut.
Even as late as Wednesday afternoon, Brent, the global benchmark, was lumbering steadily towards $50 a barrel, a level unseen since November. But oil futures reversed direction after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting indicated that the central bank could raise U.S. interest rates as early as next month, causing the dollar to jump. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index BUXX, +0.05% which tracks the dollar against 16 other currencies, was last down 0.01%.
A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-traded oil more expensive for foreign buyers.
Another factor suppressing prices could be profit-taking after prices rose to six-month high earlier in the week.
“The market may be sufficiently overbought to peak at any time here, but we may see at least a few sessions of consolidation at a high level to help define a top rather than a more abrupt A-shaped market turn,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures.
In recent weeks, the ongoing wildfires in Canada and supply disruptions in Nigeria and Libya have taken at least 1 million barrels of oil offline each day. Fiscal distress in Venezuela is also posing challenges for its oil operations.
“The fact that oil hasn’t pushed through $50 a barrel suggests the market is discounting the impact of the disruptions. As these issues linger, we expect an increasing supply risk premium will price into the market,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist with ANZ.
Moreover, some analysts said with oil prices still below production cost, the current price level is still not economical enough to spark a rebalance in the market.
A Bernstein research report estimates global marginal cost for non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 30% to $73 a barrel in 2015, less than the fall in Brent of 47% to $52 a barrel.
“With oil prices falling more rapidly than costs, industry margins have been wiped out and the industry is free cash flow negative. This is not sustainable,” said Neil Beveridge, senior analyst at Bernstein, adding that global oil market is unlikely to see a rebalance until prices edge up to at least $60-$70 a barrel.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for June RBM6, -1.27% — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 189 points to $1.6300 a gallon, while June diesel traded at $1.4646, 185 points lower.
ICE gasoil for June changed hands at $434.25 a metric ton, down $9.50 from Wednesday’s settlement.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-drop-on-dollar-strength-rising-inventories-2016-05-19