Russ Koesterich 2016年5月19日
正如我同事Jean Boivin最近說的，央行們正在推動貨幣政策的外部局限性。這將帶來很多奇怪的影響，其中重要的一點是當前主要債務的負收益交易。如果你現在購買日本政府債務，那麼你將需要支付利息。歡迎來到投資者向借款人支付利息的世界。
央行要為這種夢幻般狀態的形成負主要責任，即使他們決定扭轉這一局面，實際借貸利息也將遠遠低於歷史常態。人口和經濟增長緩慢等因素造成了實際利率處在低水平的情況。
總之，這將為投資者造成收益匮乏的嚴重情況。諷刺的是，作為補救的黃金也不產生任何收入。
雖然對黃金的預測比其他資產類別要多的多，但是黃金預測仍然是沒有把握的事情。首先，投資者不認為黃金是大宗商品、貨幣或者“野蠻的遺迹”。即使像我這樣把黃金看成一個投資組合中必要角色的投資者也必須承認黃金的估值是非常苦難的。沒有現金流進行折現，黃金與原油甚至其他貴金屬不同，它的工業用途非常少。
現在是交易黃金的完美時間嗎？
也就是說，在某些環境中產生比其他環境對黃金更好的影響。黃金不需要支付利息或者股息，持有黃金的機會成本是回報的主要驅動因素。在低利率或者負利率時期機會成本較低，黃金通常會比在高利率時期表現要好。我的同事Heidi Richardson最近也在一篇文章中提到過這一現象。彭博社的數據顯示，自1971年以來美國十年期國債的實際收益約為黃金價格年變化的35%。在那些實際利率高於平均水平（2.50%）的年份中，黃金的平均年增長率為0.50%。然而，在實際利率低於歷史平局水平的年份中，黃金的平均增長率為21%。
雖然實際利率在歷史上對黃金表現的影響最為重要，但是通脹對黃金表現的影響也非常關鍵。黃金表現最好的年份是實際利率低且通脹上漲的年份。彭博社的數據顯示自1971年以來有12年符合這一條件。黃金價格在這十二年中有十一年在上漲，其平均回報超過35%。
由於經濟增長緩慢、美聯儲態度謹慎和日本與歐洲負債務收益率的影響，美國的實際利率將在近期維持在低水平。同時，隨著去年美元加息和石油下跌的影響開始消退，核心通脹和工資開始上漲。這恰好是歷史上對黃金非常有利。
Are These the Golden Days for Gold?
By Russ Koesterich | May 19, 2016
As my colleague Jean Boivin recently wrote, central banks are pushing the outer limits of monetary policy. This has had many odd side effects, not the least of which is a significant portion of sovereign debt today trading at a negative yield. If you buy government bonds from Japan today, you’d have to pay interest. Welcome to a world in which investors pay for the privilege of lending money.
Although central banks have been the primary architect of this surreal state of affairs, even if they decide to reverse course, real borrowing costs are likely to remain low relative to the historic norm. Factors such as demographics and tepid economic growth are contributing to the unusually low level of real interest rates (i.e. after inflation).
All told, this is a serious problem for yield starved investors. Ironically, one potential remedy is to take a second look at an asset class that provides no income: gold.
Even more than other asset classes, making predictions about gold is a dubious exercise. For starters, investors can barely agree on what gold is: commodity, currency or “barbaric relic.” Even investors like myself, who see a legitimate role for gold in a portfolio, need to admit that gold is extremely difficult to value. There is no cash flow to discount and, unlike oil or even other precious metals like silver or platinum, gold has few industrial uses.
Is now the perfect time and place for gold?
That said, some environments have been more kind to gold than others. As gold pays no interest or dividend, the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal is a critical driver of returns. During periods of low or negative real rates, when the opportunity cost is low, gold has generally performed better than in periods when real rates are higher. My colleague Heidi Richardson also mentioned this in a recent post. According to Bloomberg data, since 1971, the level of real U.S. 10-year yields has explained roughly 35 percent of the annual change in the price of gold. In those years in which real rates were above average (roughly 2.50 percent), gold rose by an average of 0.50 percent. However, in those years when rates were below the historical average, gold rose by an average of 21 percent.
While real rates have historically had the most significant impact on gold’s performance, inflation, more particularly the direction of inflation, has mattered as well. The best years for gold were those in which real rates were low and inflation was rising. Since 1971 there have been 12 years that fit that description, as Bloomberg data shows. Gold rose in 11 of those 12 years with an average return of over 35 percent.
Given slow growth, a cautious Federal Reserve and the proliferation of negative sovereign yields in Japan and Europe, U.S. real rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future. At the same time, both core inflation and wages have been firming while the inflation drag from last year’s strong dollar and collapse in oil is beginning to fade. This is exactly the type of environment that has historically been most favorable to gold.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/051916/are-these-golden-days-gold.asp