Neuberger Berman 2016年5月18日
四月對投資者來說遠遠不是最殘酷的月份。許多人都感到股票、高收益債券、新興市場和大宗商品背後的情緒有所改善。但是他們真的意識到了歐洲資產表現有多好嗎？
CIO Perspectives的追隨者將會習慣我們“拿錢說話”的主題，因為直到基本面變得清晰以前確定市場風險是非常困難的。全球經濟正處在“前進兩步，倒退一步”的模式中，並且沒有哪個區域能形成明確的領導地位。即使數據已經得到加強，美元升值仍然使美國公司的處境步履維艱。既然經濟數據趨於疲軟，那麼應該是時候更加進一步觀察歐洲的表現了。
是時候深挖頭條新聞背後的歐洲了
我們將會將目光轉移到稍後的表現。現在，讓我們意識到關註頭條新聞和想象歐洲在充滿地區性風險的永久性危機中的情形是多麼容易。然而再深挖一點，你會發現經濟中積極因素和歐洲公司的良好定位。
例如，上週從希臘傳來了好消息。希臘議會批準的改革引發了一個應該發放必要資金和展開潛在債務免除的救援讨論。
一週之前，歐元區的GDP快速增長和美國兩年來最低的季度增長引發了同樣的高度關註。週五，德國出示了強勁的GDP數據。歐洲的制造業數據和美國一樣被混淆，但是令人鼓舞的是我們能看到西班牙和意大利的增長超過預期。歐洲的失業問題仍然非常嚴峻，但是近期的失業救助數據、勞動力參與率和非農就業數據還不清楚。
當然，這些都是相對的。歐洲在第一季度0.5%的經濟增長與美國相同。重組希臘債務的意願仍未出現。德國、法國和英國的工業產值正在下降。通脹根本沒有產生。
但是歐洲機會的確不是一個大空話。它是歐洲公司投資行為背後的一系列因素。
歐洲公司顯示出良好定位
歐洲公司往往在低油價中受益。他們對新興市場的接觸更多，在那些地方市場情緒可能得到改善。歐元區的資金供應近期出現強勁增長，而且歐洲央行在今年將會實行進一步的刺激。
刺激包括承諾購買公司債券，這將引發新一波歐元的發行，上週有約190億歐元被投放進市場。債務是一個長期問題，但是與此同時它也發出了流動性充足且投資環境有利可圖的情形可能會出現的信息。
這將是令人鼓舞的，因為歐洲公司將比美國同行擁有更多提高盈利的空間。歐洲企業的盈利回歸到2010年的水平，沒有恢複到金融危機之前的水平。相比之下，美國公司的盈利在2014年達到頂峰並在隨後開始下降。
歐洲四月的表現是喜人的
轉變還沒有開始。隨著第一季度業績披露即將結束，標準普爾500每股收益同比僅下降5%，而在歐洲斯托克600的每股收益卻下降21%，而且大家一致認為2016年每股收益的增長正在減弱。
盡管如此，我關註股票的同事有很好的理由來尋找美國之外的股票。讓我們來看一下那些表現數據。
今年到目前為止，表現最差的市場仍然包括斯托克600、歐洲銀行和意大利與德國的股票（中國和日本也一樣）。但是四月的情形發生了重大轉變，西班牙經濟增長4%，意大利增長3%，而標準普爾500持平。對於美元投資者來說，結果甚至更好，因為到目前為止，西班牙股票對美元正處於上漲趨勢。
在這個明顯的機會少之又少的世界上，歐洲股票很可能將是一個引人矚目的長期價值，而且市場現在可能已經多少發現了點這種價值。
The Europe Behind the Headlines
By Neuberger Berman | May 18, 2016
April was far from the cruelest month for investors. Most will have felt sentiment improve behind equities, high-yield bonds, emerging markets and commodities. But did they also notice how well European assets performed?
Followers of CIO Perspectives will be used to our “show-me-the-money” theme—the difficulty of building conviction on big market exposures until the fundamental picture clarifies. The global economy is in “two steps forward, one step back” mode, and no one region can establish clear leadership. The rising dollar made life tough for companies in the U.S. even as its data strengthened. Now that economic releases appear to be softening, it may be time to look more closely at Europe.
Time to Dig Below Europe’s Headlines
We’ll turn to performance later. For now, let’s acknowledge how easy it is to focus on headlines and imagine Europe is in permanent crisis, awash with geopolitical risk. Dig a little deeper, however, and you can find positives in its economies and favorable positioning among its companies.
Last week saw rare good news around Greece, for example. Its parliament approved reforms with little drama, triggering a bailout review that should release needed funds and potentially open up discussions on debt relief.
A week earlier, Eurozone GDP growth surprised on the upside just as the U.S. posted its slowest quarterly growth for two years. On Friday, Germany gave us a strong GDP print. Manufacturing data out of Europe has been mixed, as it has from the U.S., but it’s encouraging to see Italy and Spain exceeding expectations. Europe’s unemployment problem remains severe, but recent jobless claims, participation rates and non-farm payrolls data remind us it’s not all clear sailing in the U.S., either.
Of course, this is all relative. Europe’s 0.5% growth in Q1 was the same as the U.S.’s. The appetite to restructure Greek debt still isn’t there. Industrial production in Germany, France and the U.K. is weakening. Inflation is nonexistent.
But the European opportunity isn’t really a big macro call. It’s about a series of factors lining up behind the investment case for corporate Europe.
European Companies Appear Well Positioned
European companies tend to benefit from lower oil prices. They have more exposure to emerging markets, where sentiment may be improving. Eurozone money supply has been growing strongly, and there was further stimulus from the ECB this year.
That stimulus included a commitment to buy corporate bonds, which is creating a wave of new euro issuance: Almost €19 billion came to market last Wednesday alone. That leverage could be problematic in the long term, but in the meantime it sends a message that liquidity is abundant and profitable investments may be available.
That would be encouraging because European companies have much more room to improve earnings than their U.S. counterparts. Corporate profits are back where they were in 2010, having never regained pre-crisis levels. By contrast U.S. profits peaked in 2014 and have declined ever since.
Performance in April Was Encouraging
The turnaround isn’t underway yet: With the Q1 earnings season almost done, S&P 500 earnings per share are down just over 5% year-over-year; in Europe, the Stoxx 600 EPS is down 21%, and the consensus for 2016 EPS growth is weakening.
Nonetheless, my equity-focused colleagues are looking beyond the U.S. for good reason. Let’s look at those performance numbers.
Year-to-date, the worst-performing markets still include the Stoxx 600, European banks, and Italian and German equities (alongside China and Japan). But the story was very different in April, when Spain was up 4%, Italy 3%, and the S&P 500 was flat. For U.S. dollar investors, the results were even better—in fact, Spanish equities ended April in positive territory, year-to-date, against the greenback.
In a world where clear opportunities are few and far between, European stocks could well be a source of compelling long-term value—and markets may now be recognizing some of that value.
本文翻譯由兄弟財經提供
文章來源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/neuberger-berman/articles/markets/051816/europe-behind-headlines.asp